Why Trump is definitely going to take Greenland
At this point in time, I think it’s safe to say that the world, and Europe in particular, needs to accept that Donald Trump is deadly serious about his threat to take Greenland as a territory of the United States. I’m sure a lot of politicians and ministers have been writing it off as just another example of Trump’s bluster and belligerence but they need to realise that this time, it’s different.
Media coverage has reported the motivation for Trump’s current obsession as being the oil and minerals which lie beneath the Arctic island’s frozen plateaux. While this is true, it is really only the headline that misses the key information which, when one reads it, explains why Trump’s statements about taking Greenland should be treated as intention rather than aspiration.
To understand why his administration is determined to ‘own’ Greenland for national security reasons, we need to turn our attention back to the US/China trade disputes at the end of 2025. In amongst the noise of tariffs and supply chain breakage, there was a further issue with immediate and future ramifications for the USA. This was China’s restriction, then suspension, of rare earth elements (REEs) to the USA. For people who even registered these actions at the time, the perception was probably that this meant problems for iPhones, Androids, laptops and computers.
Think bigger. Think about weapon systems. Defence shields. Early Warning apparatus. Advanced fighter aircraft. Submarine sonar. As much as our electronic consumables need these rare earth elements, the weapons and defence systems we rely upon to protect our nations and deter hostile actors rely heavily upon these elements. And at the tail end of 2025 China slowed then halted the supply of these to the USA. With the sudden realisation that their main adversary had a monopoly on these elements, the implications were terrifying to the Pentagon. The supply of elements essential to the production of advanced weapons and defence systems was reliant on relations with China. And at the end of 2025 when China suspended the supply of rare earth elements to the USA, the harsh reality hit home:
China could directly control the quantity and quality of America’s future security and defence.
This, of course, is unacceptable. To any nation. But particularly to one with new imperialist ambitions and an open claim to controlling the Western Hemisphere. So the first response on identifying this reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals was, of course, where else do you source them?
Enter Greenland.
Greenland holds significant deposits of the key rare earth elements utilised in the production of advanced weapons and defence systems. And it’s right on America’s doorstep. Right on it.
And this is why Trump doesn’t push for an increased US presence in Greenland, which, under the current treaty he doesn’t even have to ask for he is actually allowed to just do. It’s why he doesn’t ask for a multinational task force to step up and increase Greenland’s security against the Russian and Chinese aggressions he claims are happening.
It’s why he talks of ownership. Of Greenland as an integral part of the continental United States. Because owning Greenland means owning the rare earth elements that his country needs to produce the advanced weapons and defence systems essential to keeping it safe. No pact, treaty or agreement can provide this so there’s no point even looking at any of these as a potential solution. The US needs to own Greenland to safeguard its national security. Now, I’m no geologist and I’ve read conflicting reports about how easy or not it will be to extract these elements from Greenland soil. But remember that even when the Trump administration knew that the oil in Venezuela was a thick, heavy crude that none of the major oil companies wanted anything to do with, he still went ahead. So, easy extraction or not, he is determined to own the lands where these elements are found.
And that’s why Europe and the rest of the world need to understand that Trump isn’t kidding. He is going to take Greenland, one way or another. He doesn’t care if it breaks NATO, fractures the established world order, encourages multiple new conflicts to erupt. He only cares about securing a supply of rare earth elements for his country’s security and defence and severing the reliance on China.
And here’s an interesting wrinkle for those watching American and world current affairs. With the protests against the ICE raids in Minneapolis making national news in the US every night, the Trump administration has stated that troops from the US Army’s 11th Airborne Division will be sent to the state of Minnesota to assist in quelling the ‘civil unrest’. Why is this interesting or relevant to an article about Greenland, I hear you ask?
The photo above shows soldiers from the 11th Airborne Division on a training exercise in their home base state of Alaska. It’s cold and snowing but they seem well-equipped and confident. And that would be because they are the US Army’s specialist cold weather fighting force. Their nickname is ‘The Arctic Angels’. When the Trump administration could have sent thousands of troops from a state away, why drag these specialist troops all the way down from Alaska to stand on streets and intimidate protestors? My theory? They’re not going anywhere near Minneapolis.
They’re preparing to deploy to Greenland.
Think about it this way. There are already US special forces, NSA, and CIA assets in Greenland, of that there can be no doubt. They will have been working the region for months, covertly preparing the conditions for when the trigger is pulled to take the island. What they need next is boots on the ground in numbers to secure and hold key installations in preparation for the occupying forces to arrive. These would need to be cold weather warfare troops comfortable with fighting and operating in an Arctic environment. Troops like the 11th Airborne Division.
To me, the White House statement about deploying these troops to Minneapolis is actually a clever cover story to mask the operational reason for bringing the troops out of Alaska and into the lower 48. The Trump administration couldn’t risk flying the 11th Airborne Division directly from Alaska to Greenland as they would have to cross Canadian airspace. And Canada is on very high alert to all things American military going on near their borders. The US would quickly have lost the element of surprise. But bringing them south and redeploying from the US? Problem solved.
I would love to be wrong on this assessment but I don’t think I am. All the evidence is already out there in separate pieces but it’s only when you put them together that a full picture emerges. Anyway, we will see sooner rather than later I believe. I don’t see anything that will hold Trump back on this one, buoyed as he is by his recent success in Venezuela.
But don’t take my word for it. Take Canada’s.
In a ‘I never thought I’d see this in my lifetime’ moment, Canada has just concluded a war-game simulation where the aggressors are, you guessed it, The United States. This wasn’t done on a whim but on the grounds that Canada is integral to Trump’s doctrine of owning or controlling the Western Hemisphere. After Greenland, Canada is under no illusions that Trump will be coming for them next. The simulation showed that Canada could probably hold the might of the US military at bay for no more than two days. Thereafter, organised resistance and insurgency tactics would be implemented to make the cost of occupation too high for the invaders to accept. That in itself is a staggering but very realistic conclusion. That the big bad bully and his gang might overrun Canada initially but they will pay a such heavy toll in the long run that they will be forced to abandon their imperialist northern venture.
So, Greenland is a definite for Trump and for America’s national security, at least as his administration sees it. And sooner rather than later, judging by the increase in the rhetoric and vitriol he is pumping out on his personal social media platform. Today sees Trump scheduled to arrive at the Davos World Economic Forum where he has already lit the blue touch paper by insulting European leaders and publishing personal messages between them and him. As I write this, Trump has just arrived in Davos to a suitably cold reception and it will be interesting to see what impact his personal presence has.
But one thing is certain; he is not going to be dissuaded by anyone, to back off on his claim to Greenland.