James E Mack

Author of Military Thrillers and Spy Fiction

Four meals from anarchy…(Updated)

AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis

I first posted this article a couple of years back and it’s probably the one that generated the most conversations from friends and colleagues after they read it and put themselves in the shoes of my protagonist. All of them agreed that it is a realistic and horrifying scenario which most of us don’t even pay lip service to thinking about. But when we do, it soon becomes apparent how ill prepared we are to deal with such a situation. And how quickly our comfortable existence would be degraded.

The reason I’ve updated and reposted here is the recent increase we’ve seen in attacks against subsea communication and power cables. Earlier this week, the underwater cables that connect Australia to the wider world were targeted. A tanker’s suspicious movements showing a dedicated interest in the area of the cables before 2 of 18 were broken. An attack against the very digital lifeblood of the antipodean nation. Nearer to home, Russia consistently targets European power and communications cables and have only been unsuccessful due to the intelligence and security agencies vigilance and defences.

But they won’t always be successful in this defence.

So what happens when an adversary succeeds in destroying critical infrastructure for even a relatively short period of time? Well, we now know from the experiences of Ukraine exactly how this scenario pans out. But should the same situation occur in the UK, could we cope? Have a read below and see what you think . . .

I’m often asked where I get the ideas for my books from and how realistic they actually are. The broad answer is that I employ a combination of personal experiences and real world events. With over three decades in front-line counter terrorism and military operational experience, I’m rarely short of ideas or plots.

MI5 crest

Take the title of this article for example. Four meals from anarchy. That term comes from an MI5 threat matrix carried out some years back and refers to the timeframe in which the UK would descend into anarchy after a comprehensive cyber attack taking out our power supply for an extended period. It took into account how reliant our nation is on electricity, digital communication platforms, and how little resilience is built into the system to cope with large-scale, prolonged outages. It also identified how fragile our food supply chain is and again, how even the smallest disruption to it would have a disproportionate effect. Think about Tesco and other major retailers ‘Just in Time’ model of supply. This is where the resupply to major supermarkets takes place just before stock is depleted to a certain level. It’s why and how Tesco et al can save money by not having massive storage sites at their locations. But it is extremely vulnerable to any transport or communications disruption.

The thing is, MI5 don’t have to imagine or attempt to predict the effects that such a cyber attack and power outage would have. They have had the opportunity to study several events where this very thing has happened. The biggest one obviously being when Russia carried out an operation of this type against Ukraine. Banks, food supply and storage, Internet, mobile phones, fuel supplies, traffic lights, air travel, train travel, trams, heating and hot water. It would take too long to list every element affected by the attack but it’s sobering to see the immediacy and depth of impact this type of hybrid warfare has.

And Ukraine was far more resilient than we in the UK would be. Ukraine as a country is accustomed to Russian attacks and intimidation and the Ukrainian people stoic and resolute in coping with the associated effects and hardships. We as a nation have not been exposed to the same misfortunes and suffering and consequently not invested in mitigation and coping strategies.

One of the largest increases in crime in the UK in the past year has been that of shoplifting, up 25% from the year before. 25%. By any measure, and for any crime, that’s an eye-watering statistic. And it’s not being carried out by poor people who can’t afford food. The type of offender ranges across the class spectrum as steaks, cheese, wine and other alcohol top the stolen items list. Organised criminal gangs have also jumped on the bandwagon, recognising the minimal possibility of arrest and prosecution as a very low risk/high reward criminal enterprise.

Shoplifter filmed on CCTV

I bring this up to highlight the fact that this stealing of food is occurring when there is no threat to our food supply and availability. It takes very little imagination to picture the increase in stealing food on the second day our country has no power. Those who already steal carrying on as normal, the newcomers justifying their actions as self-preservation. The criminal gangs would expand the scope of their thefts to a wholesale level, stealing in bulk now to sell for maximum profit later as food supplies become more scarce. The competition for the securing of food also leading to increased violence at every level.

And that’s just food. Think about our reliance on petrol and diesel for transport and goods delivery and the impact of having none. No electricity for EVs. Ambulances, fire engines, police cars, all affected from the off. Rail and air travel stopped. The mobility we rely on every day for every aspect of our lives suddenly ended.

Communication blackouts, initially from cyber attack then from no power availability. No internet or phone connectivity. Isolation from family and friends as the situation deteriorates further. Information available only as rumour and speculation, the void of news reporting filled by conspiracy theories and fearmongering.

Water supply and sewage control. This was one of the key areas the Russian’s targeted in Ukraine as it has a twofold effect in terms of impact. When citizens lose their water supply it has immediate effects on health and hygiene. The secondary impact is on mental health and morale, a deep rooted panic setting in as it becomes apparent that things are getting far worse than could ever have been imagined.

When the Soviet Union, then Russia, employed their deep-cover ‘sleeper’ agents in countries abroad, attacks against key infrastructure were planned and rehearsed due to the immediate and very public effects they had on a nation. A government dealing with a population turning upon each other and their leaders has few remaining resources with which to combat the external threat.

In 2013, a series of power outages in the USA assessed to be a fault in the system, turned out to be something far more nefarious. When the outages were investigated, it was found that fibre-optic cables and electricity transformers had been targeted in what was described by investigators as ‘military level’ in planning and execution. Where the elements of the transformers had been disabled, it was found that they had been shot, from distance and with accuracy, indicating training and proficiency by whoever had carried it out. CCTV caught a puzzling series of small flashes away from the target area and this was later identified as signals which initiated and ended the attack. Again, an indication of complexity and coordination. On the shell casings found at the firing points, no prints or identifying forensic evidence was recovered, pointing to operational discipline and experience. And the thing is, this case has never been solved. A rehearsal by a Russian ‘sleeper’ team? Anti-government militia flexing their muscles?

Repairs to electrical substation after sabotage attack

In truth, the ‘who’ doesn’t really matter. The fact is that there is a group out there somewhere with the confidence, knowledge, capability, and who have now executed their concept successfully. Several counter terrorist investigators used the term ‘frightening’ when describing their assessment of the attack, referring to both the soft, relatively unguarded nature of the target and the coordinated element of the operation.

Just a few weeks ago, a Chinese vessel in the Baltic Sea dragged its anchor for over 20 miles along the seabed, rupturing communication and energy-provison cables that serve Finland. Absolutely impossible that it was an accident. And coincidence that it occurred at the same time refugees turning up at Finland’s border with Russia increased from 1 a day to over 1,000? Unlikely. A typical page from the playbook of overwhelming a country’s government while disrupting energy supplies and communications. There’s no doubt that this was a Russian retaliation for Finland joining NATO, the bigger surprise being the joint venture with China.

So, back to my initial point of ideas for books and stories. I keep a small log of interesting bits and pieces such as this one you are reading about now for future writing projects. The information I’ve mentioned in this piece for example, is being woven into a shorter work for my Patreon and paying subscribers.

But here’s something for you to think about:

Day One:

You wake up. Late, because your phone didn’t charge and ran out of power through the night. You get up, flick the bedroom light switch and frown when the light doesn’t work. You carry on into the kitchen and check the time on a battery operated clock and swear under your breath because you’re really late for work. You flick the light switch in the bathroom but nothing happens. You swear again but don’t stop as you need to get ready quickly. Pushing the button on the electric shower, you slap your forehead when you realise it won’t work in a power cut. Okay, bird bath it is. When you turn on the taps, the water sputters for a few seconds then nothing more comes out. You try this again and again, unable to fathom why water isn’t coming out. Mmm . . . better call your friend who lives a few streets away and ask if . . . but you’ve no power in your phone. You run to your laptop and give a ‘hah’ of victory as the screen comes to life and you note there’s still some battery power. But no internet. Because the power’s down, your router isn’t working, and you can’t hot-spot from your dead phone. You’re now running very late and decide deodorant, a brush through your hair, and a quick clean of your teeth will have to suffice. As you grab your keys and the last banana from the bowl on the table, your only concern is getting to work and not on how long what little food you have in your fridge will last without electricity. Slamming the door behind you, you rush down the communal stairway, darker than usual because the lights are out, and bustle your way out into the street.

The first thing that strikes you is the amount of people stabbing at the screens on their mobile phones in frustration, or holding the devices up in the air, deep frowns on their foreheads as they try to get a signal. As you arrive at the bus stop a woman informs you that she’s been waiting nearly an hour and none have turned up. You ask if the drivers are on strike again but the woman shakes her head and says she doesn’t know. A man beside her picks up his bag and announces he’s going home as he’s tried his best but can’t get into work. He doesn’t seem too displeased about this. The traffic on the road is static, nose to tail and every few yards a driver leans on his horn in frustration. You’ve never seen a traffic jam on this road and wonder what could be causing it. A commotion across the street catches everyone’s attention and you watch as a group of youths explode out of the convenience store, arms full of food and drink, laughing as the aged shopkeeper tries to chase them. You join those around you in condemnation of the youths’ actions with a chorus of tutting and shaking of heads. You decide to walk a few streets over to another bus stop as, even if the buses are running on this line, they won’t get through until the traffic clears on the road.

As you walk the ten minutes or so to the next route, you are approached three times by strangers asking if you have a phone they could use. You explain politely that it’s dead and they move on quickly. But this makes you uneasy. Something about so many strangers in such a short period of time desperate for a phone unsettles you. At the corner of the street you groan when you see the traffic here is as bad as the street you left and you sigh in resignation, turn around and begin walking home. On reflex, you reach into your pocket for your phone, intending to call in and let work know you won’t make it, but stop short of pulling the device out when you remember. You realise you are thirsty and could also do with a coffee so cross the road and head towards the new Costa at the next junction. As you push the door to enter the shop, it doesn’t budge and looking in, you see four or five of the staff sitting at a table. One of them catches your eye and points to the window further down from the door. Following the guidance, you notice the improvised sign, ‘Closed. No electricity.’ Okay, you’ll just pick up some water from the convenience store. When you arrive at the store, their door is also locked. You shake your head as you knock, guessing that it’s a security measure after the youths’ stealing spree earlier. The face of the shopkeeper appears and waves you away. You explain that you just want to buy some water and he shouts through the glass barrier that they sold out of water earlier. You knock again to stop him turning away and yell that you will take some juice instead. He regards you for a second and tells you it’s cash only. You reach for your phone to show him your Apple Pay and groan when you realise the futility of your actions. Determination kicks in and you remember there is a cash machine nearby. With a rather dramatic ‘I’ll be back’, you stride out the small distance to the ATM. Which isn’t working because, of course, there’s no power. That uneasy feeling you experienced earlier comes back with a bit more force as the cumulative effect of the morning’s events starts to take hold. You turn around and head straight for home, allowing yourself a small grin when you think about how foolish you’ll feel in a couple of hours when the power comes back on.

Except it doesn’t. That afternoon, after rebooting your laptop over and over trying to get the internet restored, you drained the battery. No Netflix, Amazon Prime Video or YouTube to relieve the boredom. You eventually resorted to reading a book, sitting in a chair by the window where there was enough light. As the light died, you decided to have something to eat and, upon looking at the meagre contents in the fridge, reached for your phone to access the JustEat App before remembering it had more use as a coaster in its current state. Fine. You grab your coat and head towards the door, stomach rumbling in anticipation of the fish and chips to come. A memory from this morning comes back and you realise you will probably need cash but you haven’t used cash for so long you have none at hand. You do have a debit card and put this into your pocket, lock the door behind you then pause as you enter the dark stairwell. In all your years living here you’ve never seen it so dark. You hurry out into the street and register how dark it is here also, with no streetlights pooling their sodium glow onto the pavements and no shops with any light showing whatsoever. There’s also very few people around and those that are seem to be hurrying along, heads down and determined not to make eye contact. The traffic on the street remains the same as earlier today and you realise with a start that the cars have been abandoned, the drivers clearly unable to progress any further. You walk another couple of minutes before it hits you that there’s no point heading for fish and chips, or any kind of takeaway food for that matter. Nothing’s open. Nothing’s working. You think about it for a moment and decide to walk the mile or so to your friend’s house, see if they know when the power will be coming back on. This seems like a good idea until you notice the three men further along the road, leaning against the wall. They are stopping everyone walking past them, moving in close and clearly taking things from them. Your adrenaline spikes and mouth goes dry as you witness your first robberies, the raised voices of the criminals and powerlessness of the victims striking a deep fear within you. You turn and run for home.

Day Two:

You sleep late again but waken suddenly, thirsty and a little confused. Your face feels cold and you realise the heating hasn’t kicked in which in turn reminds you that the power still hasn’t come back on. A loud noise outside catches your attention and you shuffle to the window, pulling the curtain aside and looking out. A group of individuals in hoods and face masks are attacking the convenience store with baseball bats and lengths of metal pipes, smashing the door and windows. You raise your hand to your mouth as the old shopkeeper comes out of the door with a bat of his own and is beaten to the pavement where he lies unmoving and ignored as his attackers enter the shop. Instinctively, you turn to grab your phone to call the police but remember you can’t. The hooded individuals leave the store after several minutes, arms laden with boxes and bags. Several people you recognise as your neighbours walk across the street and you feel a flush of shame that you aren’t among them, heading over to check on the old shopkeeper. You raise your eyebrows in surprise when you see them glance at the old man before stepping around him and entering the shop. One by one they exit the store, quicker than they entered, furtive glances up and down the street as they juggle the food and drink in their arms. Your stomach rumbles in reaction and a second thought hits you; should I be doing that? You begin mentally justifying such an alien action. You don’t know how long this will last. You’re practically starving. You drank the small amount of water left in the kettle and don’t have any more. And besides, you’ll make a note of everything you take and pay the shop back later – more or less an IOU. Another group of people arrive at the store, this lot not even bothering to glance at the prone figure on the pavement before rushing into the building. The next sensation you feel comes from a deeper, primordial place; fear. A fear of missing the opportunity for food and drink to sustain you. You’ve never done anything like this in your life before but find yourself throwing on your coat and rushing out the door, blood pounding in your ears as you take the stairs three at a time. As you enter the store you deliberately avoid looking down at the shopkeeper, straining your eyes to take in the details of the dim interior. People are stripping the shelves and fridges and you are shocked at how little stock is left. For a brief moment you second guess yourself, appalled at how you ended up here, but when your eyes alight on a can of tomato soup all doubts disappear. Stuffing cans of soup, beans, and tuna into your coat pockets, you scan the store for further items. A lone packet of bacon on the floor by the fridge prompts a saliva deluge in your mouth and you start towards it before you realise you can’t cook it. You turn your attention back to the cans. With pockets full, you look around you and spy an empty bag lying by the magazine rack. Bending to pick it up you glance outside and notice some men across the road looking over. Your heart beats faster when you recognise them as the robbers you saw last night. You’re up and out the door, heading away from the shop before the conscious thought to do so has even entered your head. Back in your flat you lock the door and dump the cans onto the table before rushing to the window and looking outside. The three men are standing outside the shop, one of them prodding the unconscious shopkeeper with his foot while the others stop people leaving the shop, taking the goods from them. The first few people hand over their looted items after only token arguments. A man in a football top carrying several bags however, chooses to stand his ground. The robbers are upon him with a speed and ferocity of violence that shocks you and in seconds, there are two unconscious people on the pavement. The three thugs collect their spoils and distribute them among the bags and boxes for ease of carriage before setting off. When you raise your hand to close the curtain, you notice the tremors in your fingers. Rumbling in your stomach reminds you that you need to eat and you return to the kitchen, ready for a bowl of cold soup. You’re scared today. Really scared. You think a lot about your sister in Manchester and wonder if it’s the same there. Why has the power been off for so long? What’s happening? Why is nobody fixing this? Where are the police? It’s a long afternoon and night, boredom punctuated with small trips to the window, looking out on the world below as the shop gets emptier and the streets darker. Before bed, you head to the bathroom to relieve yourself and realise that it smells, there being no way to flush or dispose of the waste. When you climb into bed, the fear grows as you wonder what you are going to do tomorrow if the power is still not on. You need water; much more than you ever thought you would. You also need more food but from your observations today you know the shop has been stripped bare. So you’ll have to travel further afield, a prospect that fills you with dread as the memory of the robbers outside the shop and their swift, decisive application of violence returns. Pulling the duvet over your cold head, you do your best to sleep.

Day Three:

You wake to a raging thirst, trying to recall the crazy dreams you had through the night. It’s daylight and cold. Very cold. The sound of voices from the stairwell of your building motivates you to move and wrapping the duvet around you, you make your way to the door and place your ear against it. An authoritative voice is shouting and there is a lot of movement; doors opening and closing and people passing your flat. The booming voice repeats itself and the keywords spur you into action: Military. Water resupply. Bring containers. You haul open cupboard doors in a frenzy, determined to find the biggest receptacles you have but in the end all you can manage is a soup pot and several water bottles you pull from the recycling. Clothes donned and containers grabbed, you rush from the flat, almost colliding with the old man from the floor above as you run down the stairwell. When you burst into the street the noise hits you as you take in the scene around you. Several olive-green tankers are parked on the pavement across the road but there’s a densely packed crowd between you and the soldiers delivering the water. People are yelling. Some in fear, others in anger, most in frustration. A soldier with a loudhailer warns people not to push in, to hold back until it is their turn. You’re jostled and barged into as people try to get to the tankers and you realise if you don’t fight back you will never make it there yourself. Dropping your eyes, you drive yourself forward ignoring the angry responses as you gain ground, your maddening thirst fuelling your uncharacteristic aggression. After an hour or so, you reach the back of the queue, bruised, exhausted, and panting for breath. For the first time you can see the soldiers clearly and note how tense and frightened they look. And that they’re armed. Rifles at the ready. They control the queue from this point, cajoling and shepherding the mob into an orderly, snaking line that leads to the rear of the tankers where other soldiers are rationing out the water. As you progress, you see people begging for more water, arguing with the soldiers but being given short thrift. Those who don’t move on manhandled away from the tankers. When it comes to your turn, a soldier directs you to the second tanker where one soldier takes your pot and bottles as another activates the hose from the rear of the vehicle. For a brief instant, you fantasise about gulping down the entire pot of water and asking for a refill but you remember what happened to those who wouldn’t move on when ordered. You stuff your bottles into your pockets, jam the lid on the pot and follow the soldiers’ indication to the exit point. All you want to do is drink but the mood of the crowd has turned and a group tries to rush the tanker you just left. Shouted warnings from the soldiers, screams from those being trampled in the crowd, then an authoritative command comes over the loudhailer. ‘Engage. Engage.’ Dull pops followed by howls of agony inform you that the army has fired some form of crowd control weapon. You have no idea that these are rubber bullets, relics from the distant Northern Ireland conflict and that one of the men hit will die from the trauma that the projectile caused when it struck his chest. Chaos ensues as people try in vain to flee, the wails of those being crushed and trampled mingling with the rage of those focussing their ire on the military. But you have other things to worry about. Well, one thing really: How to get back to your flat without spilling your precious water. An animal cunning kicks in and you head away from both the crowd and your flat, taking a long, circuitous route devoid of people that takes you to the back entrance of your building. The back door is open and you waste no time in climbing the stairs and entering your flat, heeling the door behind you and placing your precious cargo on the kitchen table. You immediately lock the door then jump back in fright as someone pounds on it from outside. Heart hammering in your chest, you listen as a woman begs for water, crying as she explains the army has gone and she didn’t get her share. Pleading for help as she has two small children. She pounds the door again and you clench your fists and screw your eyes shut. You want to help but you can’t. You need the water as much as she does. The woman continues with her plea for several minutes then there is a moment’s quiet before she pounds on your neighbour’s door and begins anew. You pick up one of the water bottles and take a long drink, moaning with pleasure as the cool liquid slakes your thirst. The water has a chlorinated taste but this doesn’t bother you in the slightest. While all you want to do is down the entire contents, you stop yourself, put the top back on the bottle and place it with the others on the table. You wander to the window and look out, shaking your head at the remnants of the crowd, the injured and lame clutching varying parts of their bodies. Some aren’t moving at all, either dead or unconscious. A yell goes up from further along the street and you crane your neck to see what the commotion there is all about. A big orange flame erupts from an overturned vehicle as a crowd cheers. You step back and sit on the edge of your bed, suddenly overwhelmed with tiredness. A small nap, perhaps, would do you the world of good. It’s dark when you awaken, heart racing and blood pounding in your ears. A loud bang echoes around your flat and you realise someone is kicking your door. The boot is followed by a voice demanding you open the door. That they know you have water. That they only want a little from you. Your eyes are wide and hands shaking as you tiptoe into the dark kitchen where you stared at the door as it is booted again. It rattles in its frame but you can see it will hold. The voice shouts again, all pretence at reason now gone. Open the door or we’ll break it down and kill you. I’m warning you. You slide down the wall and sit on the cold floor, shivering and shaking until after another few minutes, there is silence and you hear pounding on your neighbour’s door followed by the shouts. Open up mate, we need you to share that water you got today. There’s people here really need it, women and kids and that. Open up now, we only need a little bit from everybody. Like before, the lack of response prompts an escalation in anger and threats from the unseen individuals until, once again, they move along and repeat their performance at the next door. Tears roll down your face as you realise that, unless something changes soon, these threats are going to become reality. You finally acknowledge the fact that you’re freezing and shuffle to your bed, cocooning yourself in the duvet for both warmth and retreat from grim reality.

Day Four:

You wake, cold again and still tired but desperate for the toilet. The bathroom really stinks now and you realise you should have thought of another way of getting rid of your waste. As you head back to the bedroom, you stagger and grasp at the doorframe for support as a wave of lightheadedness assails you. When it passes you take a look out the window and see a thick pall of smoke further along the street. The car you saw alight the previous evening still smouldering in the street while another vehicle belches thick black smoke into the air. There are several bodies lying on the road where the water tankers had been yesterday and you don’t even register how detached you’ve become that this only prompts a mild curiosity in you. Some movement catches your eye and you watch as a family leaves one of the houses opposite, a man, a woman and two girls, each individual laden with bags and rucksacks. Their white, pinched faces showing the fear they feel as they hurry along the pavement and turn the corner, out of sight and mind to you. A brief moment later, some more movement catches your attention and a small group of individuals make their way to the door of the house the family has just left. One of them tries the handle but the door doesn’t open. Several of them take turns at kicking the door down but this doesn’t work either. Large stones are gathered from the side of the road and hurled through the window, glass shattering and an entry point gained. Sticks and lengths of pipe are used to sweep the shards of glass from the frames and the individuals climb into the house. After several minutes, the front door is opened from the inside and the intruders begin trooping out, arms laden with duvets, blankets, and anonymous, misshapen bundles. But no food or water. You notice that. Because you’re starving. You know you need to go out and find more food but the thought terrifies you. Where the hell is the military? Will they come back today? Surely if they’re bringing water to people, they will bring food? Surely . . . Before you’re aware of it, you’ve been staring out the window for over an hour, staring but not seeing. There’s something familiar about the figures coming around the corner and you realise with a start it’s the family you saw leaving earlier that morning. But they look different. And there’s less of them. The man isn’t among them and the woman and girls no longer have any bags or rucksacks. They’ve been beaten and robbed of their coats, their clothing torn and dirty from whatever attack they’ve endured. The same stunned expression on their faces, they make their way to the home they vacated only hours earlier and stop, staring at the shattered window and open door. The woman collapses to her knees and drops her face in her hands as the two girls throw their arms around her and bury their faces into her shoulders. Any thoughts you have of venturing out to look for food now gone in wake of what you imagine this family to have experienced. Sounds in the stairwell draw your attention and you head to the door where you listen and interpret the noises. A door is forced open against the occupant’s will, screams then pleas for help. You vaguely recognise the voice but can’t put a face to it. The pleas are cut short and a silence, troubling in its immediacy and totality, ensues. You wonder if, like you, the rest of the block are listening at their doors, terrified to intervene and shameful in their gratitude at not being the victim. Yet . . . You jump as a loud voice yells up the stairwell that anybody who is caught not sharing their food and water will be punished harshly. For a moment you are confused. Was there some arrangement to do this that you were unaware of? And who are these people taking charge and punishing others? Your question remains unanswered when the voice orders all occupants to open their doors when asked to and allow their homes to be searched. Those who don’t comply will have their doors broken down and face harsh punishment. Again with that word; punishment. But you have no further time to dwell on this as the voice booms louder, fists thumping on your neighbour’s door as they demand entry. You have no time because you’re next and these are not good people. Panic sets in as you try in desperation to think where you can hide what remaining water you have. How thorough will the search be? Should you just drink all of the water now because they’ll take it anyway? The clear sounds of violence and suffering next door leave you in no doubt that these people will stop at nothing to get what they want. When the first fist pounds on your door, your heart is hammering in your chest and adrenaline flooding your veins as you stand on shaking legs, starved of both energy and willpower after 4 days without enough food and water . . .

Okay. I’ve kept our protagonist here a very simple one. Single, lives alone, no dependents, no pets, town or small city dweller. I’ve also shied away from ‘Hollywood’ scenes of mass violence and rioting. At least early on in a crisis. In reality it is the incremental advance of suffering and hardship that takes time for people to realise just how bad a situation really is. So, put yourself in our protagonist’s situation. Have a think about where you live and how you live and try to imagine the chain of events over 4 days of no power or communication. Where and how would you source food and water? How would you communicate with loved ones? Would your community come together or splinter apart and how could you be sure? Would it be different for people living in rural areas? I love the process of the imaginary ‘what would I do?’ Putting myself into these scenarios and wondering what I would do or how I would cope.

So, with 4 dinners being the timeframe from how you live right now until the country descends into anarchy, what would you do?

The Spy, the Submarines, and the Capybara

Iconic image of Royal Marines yomping across the Falkland Islands

In April 1982, Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, a cluster of small, windswept isles over 8,000 miles from the UK. A self-governing, overseas territory of the United Kingdom, much of Britain’s general public had never heard of these islands. This last fact was exploited to some degree for entertainment purposes by journalists who would ask random people in the street if they knew where the Falkland Islands were. Most who answered put the isles somewhere near Shetland or Orkney in the far north of Scotland. And while that may have been the public perception, the government was adamant that, remote or not, the islands were British territory and had just been invaded by a hostile force intent on occupation. A military task force was quickly assembled and the might of the British Armed Forces was sent 8,000 miles across the globe to reclaim the islands from the foreign invaders.

As well as the might of the UK’s conventional military, other, less obvious assets were deployed to assist in the intervention. GCHQ, the national spy agency responsible for hoovering up Signals Intelligence, SIGINT, went into overdrive as it sought to break Argentine communications in order to identify the enemy’s intentions and capabilities. But there was another element assisting the British that, for obvious reasons, was not revealed until decades later.

Spies.

Individuals recruited and tasked to gather information on the enemy and report their observations back to London. A very dangerous game considering these acts would take place in enemy territory. Behind the lines, so to speak. Even as I write this, most people are probably forming an image of a man, possibly bearded, secreted in a bush and observing Argentinian troop movements through a pair of binoculars. And that would be right. There are several examples of this that have made their way into the public domain in the years following the end of the Falklands War.

But here, I want to discuss something a little bit different.

Ruth Morton at 97 and a photo of her and her sister Minna

Ruth Morton was 53 years old when her sister Minna, an accountant with the British Embassy in Montevideo, Uruguay, asked if she could discuss something of the utmost importance with Ruth. Intrigued, Ruth agreed and listened intently as her sister told her that she was secretly working with British Intelligence to gain information on Argentine military capabilities. And while Minna was doing as much as she could, there was a lot of work to do, far more than one person could acheive. Knowing that she needed someone she could trust implicitly, Minna instantly thought of Ruth. Now her sister knew everything, would she be interested in helping? There was no hesitation. Ruth was on board immediately.

Both sisters were quickly relocated to Argentina with a solid cover story to explain why two Uruguayan citizens with British ancestry had moved to Argentina. In truth, the area of north east Argentina they had relocated to had a long history of cross border movements of people and trade but still, there was a war on and all incomers would have been viewed with more interest than usual. Ruth’s task was to conduct surveillance and report her observations on Argentinia’s Mar del Plata Naval base.

Mar del Plata Naval Base in 1982

Ruth found that getting anywhere close to the base was difficult, the security status obviously raised due to the war with Britain. Undeterred, she rented a small house some distance away but which allowed her to travel to the main bus terminal which was close to the naval base. Ruth spent days discreetly searching the area for a location that would enable her to observe the comings and goings of the base. Finally, she found an abandoned property in a state of neglect but which was sited on high ground and with a clear view of the submarine section of the base.

Day and night, Ruth observed the activities of the submarine section and carefully noted the details. To remain undetected, she crawled under the floorboards of the abandoned house to a position which afforded her a clear view of her target. But the challenges of observing the Argentine Navy’s activities were only half the battle; Ruth also needed to report what she was seeing back to British Intelligence. This involved conducting defensive surveillance to ensure she wasn’t being followed when travelling to or leaving the property. She did this by taking several buses to get her well outside the city where she would then call an Anglo-Argentine contact. For whatever reason, Ruth did not fully trust this contact but had to work with what she had. This contact would then provide her with another telephone number which Ruth would call and speak to an individual with a British accent.

Ruth carried out this activity for months. Months of crawling into a cold, uncomfortable observation post in the Southern Hemisphere winter. Months of taking numerous buses in and out of the city to ensure she wasn’t followed. Months of risking, with every phone call, Argentinian Intelligence laying in wait for her. Months of operating alone, other than the voices at the other end of her phone calls.

Oh, and the capybara.

Ruth stated that one of the more surreal aspects of her work was when, at the beginning of her surveillance operation, a capybara showed up beside the abandoned house. While it couldn’t or wouldn’t follow her into the structure of the house, it remained close and Ruth found herself grateful for the companionship the animal offered in lieu of any human contact. Particularly when, after some weeks, her Anglo-Argentine contact disappeared without a word. Ruth had never fully trusted the individual but was now concerned that he could be working for the Argentinians and expose her and her operation. Unsure of what to do, Ruth nonetheless continued with her mission, reporting her observations direct to the British voice at the end of the telephone. Each day and night, she greeted her capybara companion and crawled into her cramped, freezing position, watching the activities of the naval base.

One evening, Ruth watched 3 submarines move out of the base. This was unusual activity and she knew she had to report it as soon as possible. Risking everything, she made haste to get to a telephone and alert British Intelligence of what she had observed. When the submarines did not return to the base, she knew they had been deployed to attack the British Task Force. Ruth hoped that her report had been in time to mitigate the strike.

Without her Anglo-Argentine contact, Ruth received no money or supplies to sustain her mission. Being a creative and resilient character, she knitted hats during her down time and embroidered Mar del Plata on the front and sold these via a porter at a local hotel. These meagre means at least allowed her to afford some food to keep her going. But while resilient and determined, she could not shake the feeling that the disappearance of her Anglo-Argentine contact might still bring problems to her door.

And she was right.

One midwinter night, without warning, a massive bang struck her position, very close to where she lay hidden beneath the floorboards. Unsure of what had happened, she remained still, waiting for the best part of an hour before moving. Adrenalin pumping, Ruth crawled back out of the old house and saw in the ambient light, the remains of her capybara companion. She determined that the animal had been shot from one of the boats patrolling the sea around the naval base. Ruth doubted that they had randomly spotted a capybara moving on the high ground and decided to kill it. More likely, she reasoned, there was some report of her operating in the area and when the observers on the patrol boat spotted movement, they may have believed it was her and fired. As they’d only fired once, Ruth assessed they believed they’d killed the observer.

It was time to leave.

Ruth conducted a more careful extraction than previously, suspicious of every single glance or look from strangers she encountered on the buses or in the street. On contacting British Intelligence and appraising them of what had happened, Ruth was directed to abandon the post and return to Montevideo. Her mission was over. British Intelligence could not say with any confidence whether or not the Argentinians believed she had been killed but it was better to be safe than sorry. This was also during the first week of June when the conflict was coming to an end, so her work was practically done.

Ruth returned to Montevideo and picked up her life without fanfare or recognition. The Task Force was successful and defeated the Argentine military, freeing the islands and returning them to the locals. Soldiers, sailors, and Air Force personnel returned to the UK and were lauded as heroes. A 53 year old woman who spent months of a freezing winter laying under floorboards of a derelict house spying on Argentinian submarines carried on with her life as though she’d merely taken a day trip to the beach.

It was decades later that Ruth’s story slowly began to emerge. The story of a 53 year old woman carrying out a high risk spying mission for British Intelligence while behind enemy lines. And all alone except for the company of a capybara. A Labrador-sized rodent with charm and personality. That was killed in the belief that it was a British spy carrying out surveillance on an Argentine Naval base.

Sometimes, I will sit and struggle to find something new and interesting to write about. Not often, but sometimes. Then I’ll pick up a thread of something like this, a story that sounds like a work of fiction but, after some solid research, turns out to be as the cliché goes, a lot stranger than fiction. But absolutely true.

I can easily see this story being turned into a movie as it has all the elements already in place for a successful blockbuster. A secret mission. Operating behind enemy lines. A strong female lead. A betrayal by a contact. An attempt to kill the spy. A final extraction to safety.

Oh, and not forgetting the capybara.

James

US troops to Iran

Why are US ground troops going to fight for Saudi Arabia?

Front page Tehran Times

I’m pretty sure EVERY military advisor/planner/expert/consultant is watching what I’m watching and shaking their collective heads vehemently.

What are we watching?

Well, in addition to the Marines and 82nd Airborne troops allegedly heading to the Middle East already, how about the 70 flights of mainly troop and cargo carrying aircraft that have departed various special operations bases in the US in the last 48 hours?

Some of the bases the aircraft have departed from include:

Hunter Army Airfield, home of the 160th Night Stalkers and 75th Rangers
Naval Air Station Oceana home of DEVGRU or SEAL Team 6 as most people know it
Cannon Air Force Base, home of Air Force Special Operations
Hurlburt Field, AFSOC headquarters
Fort Campbell, 5th Special Forces Group

I’ve held back from commenting on the Marines and 82nd Airborne’s deployments as, in all honesty, part of me believed it was part of a strategic communication to the Iranian regime: We’re not afraid to put boots on the ground to finish the job.

But they should be.

That’s the one military move from the US that Iran would welcome. They know the power of the optics of American soldiers coming home in body bags. They know the rallying call to the Ummah, the greater Muslim family, that an American occupation of a Muslim country will provide. But America’s military command know this. Much better than little old James E Mack, sipping coffee and typing away from his home office on the east coast of Scotland. Which, naturally, begs the question;

Why the hell are Americans going to put their troops on Iranian soil?

The answer is actually quite surprising.

While many in the USA who oppose the war are laying the blame at Israel for dragging their country into another ‘dumb’ war, there is another player in the game who, more than Israel, has been demanding American troops in Iran for some time.

KSA. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Under the Trump administration, very close economic and military ties have been forged between the nations. While previous administrations such as Obama’s restricted the sale of certain weapon types to KSA, in both Trump’s terms, he released these restrictions. In May 2025, during his second term, Trump signed a new $142 billion agreement. This deal is officially promoted as the largest single weapons agreement between the two nations, though, as in Trump’s first term where his claim of $110 billion in sales was actually $42 billion, it remains to be seen how many of these intended sales will be fully realized.

In addition, massive tech deals ‘encouraged’ by the White House have also been a key element in investment agreements between the USA and KSA. Companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are all lead elements in this trade. Controversy over the sale of certain strands of technology included as part of this deal were dismissed by the White House as irrelevant.

For his part, Mohammed Bin Salman, MBS, the crown prince and de facto ruler of KSA, has pledged $600 billion in investment in the USA which he claimed could rise to as much as $1 trillion.

My point in highlighting these deals is not to bore you with stats and data but give you some context for where KSA’s leverage comes from. Because, as I said earlier, no senior military commander in the US could possibly believe American troops in Iran can be a good idea. But the troops are going, and if it’s not America’s idea, then whose is it?

It’s at the direct request of MBS. For the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The American/Israeli war against Iran has not panned out the way it was supposed to have. A blitzkrieg of surgical strikes and the decapitation of the regime’s leadership to encourage the population to rise up, overthrow the remaining hardliners and select a government of their own. Militarily, Iran has been smashed, no question. But strategically?

Definitely not.

And that’s where KSA comes in. MBS played a bit of a double hand by publicly claiming he was not allowing the US to use his airspace when attacking Iran but was then caught red-handed facilitating US support. When Trump paused his intense bombing campaign in the hope that it would encourage dialogue with Iran, MBS told Trump directly that he had to keep bombing Iran until regime change happens. Anything short of that leaves KSA completely exposed to decades of overt and covert retaliation from Iran and its proxies in the region.

As its become clearer that Trump is desperate to walk away from this ill-thought war, KSA has suddenly realised the precarious position he is in. With a fully defeated Iran, KSA is the new king of the hill in the Middle East, a petrochemical powerhouse running the entire show. Anything less than this, and he and his kingdom are looking at decades of conflict and terrorism. His demands have now changed to pleas, best demonstrated by Donald Trump’s statement on Friday at a Saudi Investor’s Conference:

“He didn’t think he would be kissing my ass… and now he has to be nice to me,” Continuing his remarks, Trump said, “He (Mohammed bin Salman) thought I’d be just another American president that was a loser, where the country was going downhill. But now he has to be nice to me. You tell him he’d better be nice to me. He’s got to be.”

Compare this to Trump’s description only days earlier, where he referred to Mohammed bin Salman as a “warrior” aligned with the United States, particularly in the context of the conflict with Iran: “He is a warrior. He is fighting with us, by the way.”

There you have it. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia goes from ‘warrior’ to ‘ass kisser’ in a matter of days. Why? Because the power shifted. Initially as a supporting element to the war, MBS was confident that Trump and Netanyahu would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age and he and his Kingdom would rise to become the most powerful player in the Middle East.

But then Trump got bored.

He’s openly stated as much. His morning briefings on the war in Iran literally just a snuff montage of bombs and explosions as his staff desperately try to hold his attention. He’s already said openly he wants to wrap Iran up and move to Cuba. Israel and KSA do not like this one bit. As neighbours of Iran, their citizens will suffer the lethal consequences of an undefeated Iran hell bent on vengeance. Israel is also quietly acknowledging that the war has not gone to plan for them and that’s why we are starting to see their objectives clashing with Trump’s. The White House is desperately seeking an off ramp. Israel is not. Like KSA, it needs Iran completely defeated.

And now MBS has made it clear to the Trump administration that if the US doesn’t secure complete regime change in Iran, all those shiny trade and security deals of hundreds of billions of dollars are going to go up in black, bombed-refinery smoke. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to all but those Iran decides can pay the fee and enjoy safe transit. The bombing campaign has decimated the Iranian military but it has not defeated the defensive drone and missile salvos screaming through the skies toward American aligned or adjacent targets.

Including KSA.

Now, I don’t mean to be too disparaging here but I can tell you from personal experience that, while KSA has a massive defence budget and is probably the best equipped military in the region (other than Israel of course), as combat forces they are very underwhelming. In common with many of the Gulf nations, they have so much disposable funds they spend an absolute fortune on the best kit and equipment. They hire legions of military contractors to train their forces. But, and this really the point, they are not particularly capable, proven by their poor performance in Yemen, a small scale conflict where KSA struggled to achieve even their most modest of objectives. So, going head to head with Iran? A nation accustomed to constant conflict and war?

No contest.

KSA absolutely needs the USA to step up to the plate here and that’s exactly what’s happening. Donald Trump is gleeful at MBS’ relegation to lower tier status but also recognises the truth in what MBS stated. The bombings haven’t achieved their aims and if regime change doesn’t happen, oil prices will actually increase and Iran will have a stranglehold on this economic leverage for the foreseeable future. Trump can lie and obfuscate many things from the ordinary man and woman in the US but he can’t hide gas (petrol) prices. Every time someone fills up their car there is the automatic I can’t believe gas is now $4 . . . $5 . . . $6 . . . $7 . . . While America does have a slightly better hedge against rising oil prices than a lot of other countries, it isn’t anywhere near enough to offset anything as significant as it would need to.

Trump is always looking for the economic gain in any venture and the Iran war is no different. While taking MBS’ points on board, he has weighed up the loss of the potential investments MBS committed to the USA. He will also have looked at what monetary gain could be claimed for securing the region by facilitating full regime change in Iran. And let’s face it, if the USA actually carried out a full regime change in Iran, secured the country and made the neighbouring countries safe, he can pretty much name his price and take it.

But that’s a bloody big if.

And it can’t be achieved without tens of thousands of troops at a minimum and years of occupation. A model we’ve seen fail in every other recent foreign venture. But unless Iran completely capitulates, American troops are coming in numbers. As I’ve said before, there are CIA and special operations elements in country already but the big Green Machine will soon be on its way. Unless Iran agrees to a complete regime change and surrenders completely.

And that’s the best option for all concerned.

The White House has stated that there are now 13 American dead and around 300 injured. And breaking news from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that a further 15 were wounded this morning and AWACS and refuelling Stratotankers hit during the same attack. The New York Times also recently exposed the fact that Iran has attacked and rendered ‘nearly uninhabitable’ around 17 US military bases in the Middle East. And that hundreds of military personnel are ‘working remotely from hotels’.

That’s not good.

US CAG/Delta Force operators

A report which hit the headlines in recent days broke the news of the USA’s Tier 1 special forces unit CAG/Delta Force plan to enter Iran and grab the 450kg of enriched uranium Iran is said to hold. This involved massive military support elements and assaults on multiple locations and, while not shelved indefinitely, the logistics required and high risk nature of the venture have put it on hold for at least the time being.

With the large mobilisation of the special operations units I highlighted at the start of this article and the thousands of troops already in the region, a ground war looks almost certain. And I believe Trump’s mockery of MBS supports this. Warrior to Ass Kisser in a couple of days says to me that Trump has agreed to put troops into Iran to secure KSA’s future and that Trump now ‘owns’ MBS. And while MBS has committed KSA troops to assist the US ground elements, the heavy lifting and actual fighting will be done by US troops. A lot of them.

By committing to this however, Trump has boxed himself into a corner: He has to win. For the man who campaigned on ‘no more foreign wars’, he is already straining his bedrock support to breaking point. American soldiers coming home in body bags will snap this, particularly where many of the American public believe their country was dragged into this by Israel. As I hope I’ve highlighted in this article, while there is some truth to this, the powerful lobbying/bribing from another nation is responsible for Trump’s commitment to putting American troops in harms way:

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

My fervent hope is that Iran capitulates, regime change is orchestrated by the people of Iran and there’s no need for American troops to enter Iran in numbers. Because, as we’ve seen from the last two foreign military misadventures, one can win the war but be completely defeated by the peace. A peace which is measured in the numbers of dead service men and women in the name of whatever new objective its nation decides is most relevant to the venture.

And in this case, the objective of securing KSA as the key petrochemical power in the region might not be enough to convince an American public that the sacrifice is worth the lives of their bright, young things.

Again.

That time Iran defeated America . . . And how a report that showed Iran could hurt the US was hidden for 20 years

It’s July 2002. George W Bush is the President of the USA. In the Persian Gulf, a US Navy carrier group comes under surprise attack from a wave of missiles launched from commercial ships and radio-silent aircraft. The carrier group’s defences are overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the incoming missiles. 19 US ships, including the main aircraft carrier, are destroyed and sunk within 10 minutes. 20,000 US troops killed and lying dead at the bottom of a foreign sea. The Pentagon is stunned. Staff officers at Norfolk Command turn to stare at each other, open mouthed and wide-eyed in horror. A middle eastern adversary has just decimated one of the most powerful military expeditionary forces in the world.

In 10 minutes.

This was not foreseen, planned for, or even considered as a remote possibility when, hours before, the US had demanded the unconditional surrender of the adversary and a commitment from them to cease any offensive or even defensive actions. And now the most powerful military in the world has suffered its biggest defeat in history with 20,000 of its finest service personnel dead at the bottom of the ocean.

Fortunately, this was just an exercise.

But a very realistic one. A war game. An officially run stress test to simulate how a planned scenario would play out if it was conducted for real. This exercise was called Millennium Challenge 2002 and was the largest ever joint military exercise conducted by the United States. Designed over 2 years and costing around $250 million with 14,000 participants, every facet of a military deployment to potential hostilities was included.

The background to this exercise was a theocratic, Middle Eastern country with an Army, Navy, and Air Force and where relations with the US had descended into open hostility. Oh, and the country also had significant natural resources critical for global trade and commerce.

Sound a wee bit familiar?

In these war games, everything is done for real. Manpower, logistics, capabilities, are all utilised from current resources. The good guys are referred to as Blue Forces, the bad guys are Red Forces. In this exercise, the Blue Forces were of course, the US Military. For the Red Forces, the Pentagon wanted someone suitably qualified to assume the role of military commander of a hostile middle eastern nation. A military or former military senior officer with relevant experience.

Enter Marine Lt General (Retired) Paul Van Riper.

It should be noted that Van Riper was not a corridor-slinking staff officer. A multi-decorated combat veteran, he was assessed as one of the finest field commanders to grace the United States Marine Corps. Based upon his long career and experience of command, The Pentagon probably assumed that Van Riper would apply conventional US doctrine and tactics in his responses to the Blue Team actions.

They couldn’t have been more wrong.

Assuming his role as Major General in command of his nation’s armed forces, Van Riper immediately looked for his opponent’s key weaknesses and devoted his main effort to exploiting these. His first assessment was that the Blue Forces would rely heavily on technology to identify Red Forces military capabilities and infrastructure. They would also depend upon that same technology to intercept commands and directives, giving them advance notice of Red Force intentions and the ability to strike these. Van Riper knew that satellites, SIGINT platforms and ELINT intercepts would be constantly attacking his military communication platforms.

So he went old school.

Encrypted notes, on paper, delivered by motorcycle couriers. Coded messages broadcast from minarets and mosques to coordinate actions. Lighting signals on airfields to enable take offs and landings without the need for communications between aircraft and ground crews. His Air Force went dark; no radio communications for his enemy to exploit and Find, Fix, and Finish.

When Blue Forces took out his nation’s microwave towers and fibre optics, it didn’t impede Van Riper’s ability to direct his forces. His old school methodology ensured command and control still functioned. But Van Riper was also well aware that, should the might of the Blue Forces arrive near or on his shores, things would change significantly. And this is where his experience as a field commander during combat tours came into its own. He recognised that there would be a geographical point where the carrier group would commit to a point of no return. A threshold which meant they had committed to engaging in war. Van Riper identified this point and prepared, without any digital or radio communications to betray his plan.

Then he struck.

He used missiles launched from commercial boats. Wave after wave of land-based missiles to overwhelm defences and leave openings for his Air Force to strafe with their missiles. Boats laden with explosives driven directly into the hulls of the Blue Force ships. In a 10-minute attack he’d wiped out 19 ships and killed around 20,000 US service personnel.

This was not in the script.

The Pentagon and Norfolk Command went into meltdown mode. Recriminations for who was culpable for such a defeat soon morphed into a blame game but not for the commanders responsible for the defeat. Nope, a far more convenient scapegoat was soon identified and nominated as responsible for the failure of the Blue Forces to win the war game.

Lt Gen Paul Van Riper.

The narrative the Pentagon began to spin was that, in the real world, tactics such as Van Riper’s would never be used. He hadn’t played fair. No Middle Eastern adversary could possibly put together such a strategic defence against a technologically advanced opponent using mere analogue tactics.

Van Riper raised an eyebrow and pointed out that an exact tactic he used was taken from the suicide attack against The USS Cole in Yemen in the year 2000.

As a veteran of multiple combat tours of Vietnam, he reminded The Pentagon that an army of small men and women on bicycles had constructed one of the world’s most incredible feats of military supply logistics: the Ho Chi Minh Trail. A supply line that navigated the jungles of 3 countries and stubbornly resisted the heaviest bombings the world had seen to that point. That the might of the Soviet Union, with all its armour, helicopters, and manpower was defeated by the ‘analogue’ tactics of the mujahideen.

But his examples were falling on deaf ears.

The exercise was put on hold then ‘refreshed’. A start over. The Staff Officers, in probably one of the most brazen examples of in-group bias ever seen, assured each other that the failure of the exercise lay in Van Riper, not them. Therefore, better to replace Van Riper with someone more suitable. Thank Van Riper for his assistance and send him on his way.

Van Riper wasn’t happy.

As an experienced field commander, he knew all too well the inherent dangers in Command ignoring vital lessons from the battlefield. He argued that The Pentagon was essentially prioritising saving face over learning from mistakes. When he saw that the exercise was now scripted to enable the Blue Forces to win, Van Riper walked away. Putting his thoughts to paper, he wrote a detailed, 21-page After Action Report (AAR) where he highlighted how vulnerable the US Military was to low tech warfare.

An important document, one might think, particularly when America went on to invade Iraq only a year later. An opportunity perhaps, for the military command to read a very pertinent AAR that could provide important lessons to bear in mind when attacking a hostile, Middle Eastern nation with natural resources critical to global trade and commerce. Alas, this was not the case.

The AAR was classified and buried for over 20 years.

A detailed report from a decorated Marine General pointing out US Military vulnerabilities against Iran, was, to all intents and purposes, buried.

It’s this act which I believe completely validates Van Riper’s assertion of The Pentagon prioritising saving face over operational lessons. If, as The Pentagon claimed, Van Riper had conducted an unrealistic campaign which added no value to the exercise, why hide the AAR? For 20 years? I think it’s pretty clear that while the public-facing message was such, privately The Pentagon couldn’t allow such a damning indictment of US military vulnerabilities to come to light.

In the past few days, Donald Trump has come under increasing pressure to explain how his administration could possibly not have considered Iran’s responses to the US/Israel attacks. His defence is to claim surprise. That he hadn’t been made aware Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz. That his administration was both shocked and taken aback when Iran attacked US allies’ energy infrastructure in the region. That he was surprised Iran was still fighting.

He shouldn’t be.

A report from a decorated Marine Officer, written 24 years ago after a war gaming scenario playing out a US/Iran conflict, would have told him everything he needed to know.

If it hadn’t been hidden.

Two men walk into a Special Ops base and steal some drones . . .Unfortunately, that’s not a joke

In November 2025, a major US military base, Fort Campbell in Kentucky, reported some missing equipment. Not as you might imagine, some uniforms, tools, fuel, or even a pistol. You know, stuff you could quickly snatch and stash out of sight until you smuggled it off base. Nope, on this occasion, the 101st Airborne’s Air Assault contingent noticed that their complement of surveillance drones was looking a little . . . light. Light to the tune of 4 missing drones.

Four. Missing. Drones.

From a secure military base. And not just a secure military base, but one that is the home of military special operations aviation. It hosts the headquarters and 1st/2nd Battalions of the elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, known as the “Night Stalkers,” along with the Special Operations Aviation Training Battalion (SOATB). These are serious units who work with the most sensitive and up to date military technology on the planet. And yet four specialist surveillance drones were stolen and their absence not noticed for some time.

The drones were Skydio X10D systems, lightweight quadcopters designed for aerial surveillance and reconnaissance. Equipped with AI technology that enables operational autonomy and the ability to link to 5G mobile networks for connectivity continuity. They come in at around $30k a piece, so $120k of military technology stolen from a secure, special operations base.

But how?

The US Army’s official statement said that ‘. . . the two individuals had access to the military installation and the building, and “defeated the locks” on the storage cages.’ That information indicates that this was a targeted, rather than opportunistic crime.

The Army released CCTV images of the perpetrators as well as a reward of $5k for any information leading to the capture of the individuals and the recovery of the drones.

At any other time, this theft would probably not have made the headlines that it has, and indeed, this event occurred in Nov 2025 but didn’t really come to public attention until very recently. But another turn of events ensured that this theft of military drones was very much kept in the public eye.

Last week, an internal memo sent to agencies that are part of a federal Joint Terrorism Task Force was made public. The memo stated “We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran.” The media began contacting its sources within Federal and State governments and the story went mainstream.

What mattered here was that the original intelligence, believed to have emanated from The Coast Guard, was not verified. In intelligence circles this means that the information came from a single source, be that human or technical, but that no other corroborating information could be found to support it or verify the original intelligence. But the warning would have been issued as a matter of course, allowing agencies and organisations to respond in accordance with their counter-terrorism policies and procedures. When The White House was questioned on the memo, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt raged that the media had blown the entire incident out of proportion and demanded they retract the stories from their publications. When asked if it wasn’t in the public’s interest to be made aware of such threats, she doubled down on her stance, stating that the press were publishing ‘false information to intentionally alarm the American people.’

The problem here is that both the press and the public are only too aware of how dishonest and disingenuous this White House administration is with its information. Which means even if this drone threat memo was just a standard ‘hey, we heard this, not sure there’s anything to it but just so you’re aware’ type of thing, the default is to believe the opposite of whatever narrative the government is standing by. And that’s where the real problems begin.

On the first day of America/Israel’s war with Iran, a mysterious broadcast was picked up by radio hams around the globe. Serious radio hams. The types dedicated to an analogue slice of nostalgia rapidly disappearing from the modern world. What they heard and found in this mysterious, new broadcast initially baffled then alarmed. The signal has been heard across Europe and rebroadcast to other parts of the world, with consistent evening activity and short voice messages consisting of structured numeric sequences. A man’s voice can be heard speaking Farsi, counting out a series of apparently random numbers. The numbers are read out for varying stretches of time, followed by a pause in which the word tavajjoh, which translates as ‘attention’, is spoken three times

In old money in the intelligence world this was referred to as a Numbers Station. And the main role of a Numbers Station was for intelligence agencies and organisations to contact their agents in the field via a one-way transmission. The agent, knowing the designated frequencies and times to check, would have a secure method of decrypting the stream of numbers being transmitted. Translating them into formal orders and directives.

The beauty of an old-school Numbers Station in a digital age is that it provides direction and guidance to an agent who may be operating in an environment where any outbound communication is intercepted. That leads directly to the main question of who, today, would most require this ancient mode of communication?

Sleeper cells.

Hostile operatives embedded in their adversaries countries. Operatives who know any communication between them and those directing them have a high threat of being surveilled. The training in and use of an analogue mode of communication also builds in resilience in that, should the operatives’ home country be attacked and lose digital communication infrastructure, directions could still be securely passed over shortwave radio. A Numbers Station.

So, we have a transmission that begins on the first day of the America/Israeli war in Iran. It’s broadcast in Farsi. It appears to emanate from somewhere in Central Europe.

And it’s constantly being jammed.

Iran, Israel, and the United States all have the technical ability to carry out this jamming. So that begs the question, who is doing the transmitting and who is doing the jamming? The jamming is being carried out by someone who wants to make sure the recipient of the transmissions doesn’t get them.

In the USA, a recent statement from ABC News on March 9 reported that the US government had sent an alert to law enforcement agencies regarding ‘intercepted encrypted communications.’ While the report did not specify what exactly the transmission was, or whether it was a numbers station signal, it stated ‘While the exact contents of these transmissions cannot currently be determined, the sudden appearance of a new station with international rebroadcast characteristics warrants heightened situational awareness.’

We know there are Iranian sleeper cells in the USA. There have been official declarations as such from government officials including the President himself. And in recent days there seem to be more officials openly stating that the Numbers Station signal is an operational trigger for activating Iranian sleeper cells abroad. When coupled with drone thefts from a military special ops base, drone threats to the American mainland, and an analogue spy tradecraft brought out of retirement, well, as the Americans are fond of saying, ‘you do the math.’

Or in this case, The Numbers.

Russian Roulette

Trump asks Putin to help him get out of Iran

In the past two days, the Trump administration has descended into panic mode over the effects of the war in Iran. The indicators?

Major mixed messaging from the President himself: ‘The war is very complete . . . we’ve still got a lot to do . . . we’ve already won but want to keep on winning . . . Iran better not mine the Strait of Hormuz or they’ll be sorry . . . American Navy will provide escorts for tankers to transit the Strait . . . Tanker captains need to grow a set and drive through the Strait . . . Iran bombed the girl’s school . . . I don’t have enough information to confirm the USA bombed the school . . .etc, etc, etc
The not ruling out of boots on the ground with even a brief discussion of re-invoking The Draft, the compulsory conscription of the public into military service. The second this hit the airwaves, instant denials followed with watery explanations of ‘ . . . this was an informal comment made in a personal context . . .’
The start of individuals being thrown under the bus for the Iran debacle: Pete Hegseth highlighting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as the negotiators who convinced The White House that Iran had no interest in curtailing their nuclear weapons program. Despite the Omani mediators stating talks were proceeding very well. The term highlighting here really means publicly announcing the pair as being responsible for America’s decision to attack Iran.
Trump’s call to Israel requesting they stop bombing critical Iranian oil infrastructure. Not because of the toxic rain now falling over Tehran and other cities but because, when the missiles stop flying, Trump wants to negotiate an oil deal with Iran. Because even if the war stops today, oil prices will never recover to previous levels for years.
The American public’s rage over climbing gas (petrol) prices. You can hide bad employment stats and spiralling national debt but everybody sees for themselves, exactly how much the bombing of a country half a world away is costing them when they fill up their tank. And then there’s the public anger over Trump’s attitude over prices: ‘Well, you know, they’re going to go high for a short period . . .’
Trump’s loosening of sanctions on Russian oil trading, hoping to ease some of the pressure on the widening chasm between supply and demand. Unfortunately, this hasn’t even scratched the surface of the problem.
The White House approaching President ‘you don’t have the cards’ Zelensky and requesting immediate help in counter drone warfare.
Trump has a one hour call with President Putin of Russia and asks him if there’s anything he can do to convince Iran to stop fighting.

Once again, when the going gets tough and Trump finds himself in a bind, he calls Putin. I’m not going to enter into the debate as to whether Trump is an active asset of Russia’s because, at the end of the day, his actual status in this regard really doesn’t matter. Formally recruited Asset or useful idiot, the nomenclature matters not. Everything Trump does benefits Russia, or, more accurately, Putin. Even now, Russia needs a resumption of the mass deliveries of Iranian Shahed drones that it swarms Ukraine with. And Trump needs an off-ramp to get the hell out of the quagmire America has been dragged into.

So he speaks to Putin.

Putin who has been providing Iran with intelligence on the location of American military assets in the region. Targeting information. The intelligence needed to kill Americans. When this news broke, the Pentagon blustered something along the lines of ‘well, we don’t know anything about that.’ As if that wasn’t shocking enough, consider Steve Witkoff’s response to being confronted on how he, America’s representative to Russia, is dealing with this vile act:

‘The Russians say they have not been sharing intelligence with Iran.’ Okay Steve, what evidence did they provide to convince you of this? ‘We can take them at their word.’ Oh, cool, as long as we’re treating this as the serious attack on American service men and women that it is. Incidentally, just on the off chance the unimpeachable, honest-as-the-day-is-long Putin is fibbing and has been providing this intelligence, what’s Trump’s plan for addressing this? ‘Let’s hope that they’re not sharing.’

Brilliant. Literally could be a General Melchett dialogue from the comedy classic Blackadder Goes Forth. Except this isn’t funny. Russia assisting in finding US targets for Iran and the Trump administration’s response is to, well, sweep it aside in the interest of walking away from the conflict they started as soon as they can. At least 7 American service personnel dead and 140 wounded, some of these through Russian provided targeting to Iran. If I had a son or daughter in the US military just now I’d be absolutely raging.

Putin has, in a masterstroke, manoeuvred himself into the position of peace broker for the most volatile war on the planet. And with massive gains for himself. Sanctions lifted allowing Russian oil to flow to market. Ukraine tied into the Iran deal to ensure Putin gets exactly what he wants to finish his special military operation. Incredible, isn’t it? The White House begs Ukraine for help in countering Iranian drone attacks while their President agrees to agree to Russian demands in Ukraine if Putin helps get them out of Iran. Like I said, a masterstroke. Putin keeps the war going by assisting Iran with targeting until he can present himself as the only viable powerbroker that can get Trump out of his mess. And what a mess it has become.

18 countries are now involved in this conflict. 18. And that’s not even counting the countries where US embassies or consulates have suffered attacks or acts of sabotage.

Speaking of which, the American public just learned that an Iranian-issued fatwa, directing Shia muslims to attack any American or Israeli targets anywhere they found them, was withheld from the public at the direction of the Trump administration. Not released to FBI or Homeland Security to enable them to escalate defensive postures and prepare responses. When Trump was confronted with this fact, he played it down in typical Trump fashion, ‘well, you know, there’s always these threats and they’re kind of always around . . .’

This is a fatwa. An official decree sanctioned by the religious leaders of the Shia faith in Iran. Calling on all Shia muslims, around 200 million worldwide, to attack American and Israeli interests wherever they find them, in any way they can.

This is very different from a standard extant terrorism threat.

This Iran conflict started during Ramadan, the fasting period observed by muslims worldwide and one of the five key pillars of the religion of Islam. Muslims of all factions were enraged by this and, when a religious figurehead was assassinated in the early stages of the conflict, this anger increased. Unfortunately, this timing and target selection gives the Iranian regime the power to exploit muslim anger worldwide and mobilise a giant network of anti-American/Israeli operatives. When many of these attacks will be lone-wolf or opportunistic, defending against them becomes very difficult as we have experienced ourselves in dealing with islamist terrorist attacks in the UK.

And, if indeed any more petrol were needed to be added to the spectacular fire it has become, The Secretary of Defense/War, Pete Hegseth quoted a bible verse at a press briefing on the Iran war. Coupled with the statements American armed forces personnel have been reporting about their chain of command telling them that this is a religious war and that Trump has been anointed by Jesus and is therefore fighting as mankind’s saviour, this just plays into Iran’s hands. They can point to this and frame America’s attack as a formal christian crusade aimed at exterminating muslims. Another weapon with which to motivate any Shia muslim considering committing to the fatwa.

    And today, Iran began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. While, to many, this probably doesn’t come as a particular surprise, the action isn’t the point. It’s the intent. A nation thinking about surrendering doesn’t lay sea mines to close shipping lanes. A nation does that when it’s planning to dig in, hold the line. Iran knows the pressure Donald Trump is under and in another statement today, designated US and Israeli economic interests as legitimate targets. And oil is the economic Achilles Heel that is driving Trump to desperation.

    So, Putin is the new powerbroker. And Trump desperately needs him now. But Iran isn’t acting like someone who’s thinking about negotiating. They’re acting like they’ve got a choice. Like they can make decisions about the war for themselves.

    Like they’re holding the cards.

    Trump got his war

    (I was a day late with my prediction)

    Flames and smoke after a missile strike in central Tehran

    America and Israel have begun their military operation against Iran. In my article War in a week?, I was confident that the US would strike Iran within a week of posting.

    I was a day off.

    As I write this response, it seems there is a division of labour carved up between the USA and Israel where the Israelis are targeting and killing Iranian leadership personalities while the US goes after military targets and supporting infrastructure. The Iranian regime has confirmed that their ‘supreme leader’, the Ayatollah Khameini, was killed during one of the first strikes.

    Iran’s response has been to fire off missile salvos and drone attacks to what it considers legitimate targets. Israel, obviously. But also regional countries it views as supporting American interests. Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan. Unconfirmed reports of two missiles intercepted as they approached Cyprus then a Shahed drone hitting Akrotiri Air Base. The bulk of these attacks were intercepted and neutralised but some still made it through although casualties and deaths are minimal. This response and the targets would have been anticipated during the wargaming of this operation. Air defences would have been beefed up and augmented in readiness. An oil tanker was struck off the coast and is currently on fire and, probably the most impactful element on the West so far, The Strait of Hormuz is closed.

    Why will this closure impact not just the West, but the rest of the world?

    Over 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil transits this waterway. A third of the world’s most essential energy product relies on this small stretch of water to transport the crude across the globe. And around 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) also moves through this narrow strait. So what happens when it closes?

    2025 graphic highlighting data. Credit: Getty Images

    Tankers have to turn around, get the hell out of the area. Insurers such as Lloyds of London refuse to cover any craft moving through the area against the risk of destruction or confiscation. Oil and LNG prices spike, first as a knee jerk then, if the situation doesn’t calm down quickly, climb at an astronomical rate. Which affects, well, pretty much everybody. Today, Iran began dedicated targeting of energy sites in the oil producing countries. Already, the world’s largest LNG producer, Qatar Energy, halted production after Iranian attacks, followed closely by Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery.

    As of this morning, Day 3 of the war, oil prices already spiked 10% and natural gas in Europe spiked an eye-watering 50%.

    Consider Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. UK energy costs for consumers became 30% higher almost overnight. That’s a lot more money to find at the end of every month. And that’s when only 2 countries affected the global market. This latest crisis literally pulls in the world’s major oil and gas producers and exporters who rely on political and economic stability to guarantee access to markets and unrestricted travel routes. With the war on Iran now in full swing, they have neither.

    The Americans could alleviate some of these issues by providing safe escort for vessels, keeping The Strait open and the ships safe from attack or sabotage. But that means consigning American troops and hardware to a long term operation, exposing them as targets to whatever is left of the Iranian regime. I personally don’t think Donald Trump or his Party want this. He wants a clean decapitation of the regime, no more threats of nuclear weapons, and his troops to return to the US.

    Which would be nice.

    Unfortunately, this is a region where asymmetric warfare abounds and even the might of the US military can run into real problems. Look at the Houthi rebels operating out of Yemen. By summer 2025 this group of 20,000 fighters had destroyed at least 7 American Reaper drones, which cost around $30 million apiece. And although it’s being kept on the QT at the moment, the Americans lost a more advanced drone near Iran only two weeks ago. Lost as in they have no idea what happened to it. Not crashed or shot down, but lost. And this morning we know there have been at least 4 American service personnel killed and 3 fighter jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait.

    F-15 Fighter Jet crashing in Kuwait

    Shia muslims around the world have been protesting the killing of the Ayatollah. In Nigeria, the protests were decidedly anti-American with US and Israeli flags being burned or dragged along the ground. One of Iran’s main proxy forces, Hezbollah, has been trading blows with Israel in Lebanon with dozens killed and thousands fleeing. Shia militias in Iraq are targeting anything remotely connected to American interests. 10 dead pro-Iran protestors were killed at the US Consulate in Pakistan.

    American Consulate, Karachi. Credit: AP

    So the conflict has not been contained to the Iranian hinterland, but this is something that every Middle Eastern country warned America would happen. Almost 10 countries have now been dragged into the conflict, escalating it to a truly regional war. Qatar has had to send up fighter jets to shoot down Iranian drones as their Air Defences were not sufficiently capable. So we now have a third country’s jets in the sky and probably more to follow. And let’s face it, a lot of these countries might just be pissed off enough to look at America’s hammering of Iran to think ‘You know what? Might be nice to jump on the pile-on while it’s available.’ It’s a very short operational leap from flying defence to assisting in offensive sorties over Iran.

    One of the main problems in assessing likely outcomes in this war is that there is no clearly defined goal or endgame. Trump shoe-shuffles between no nukes and regime change depending on what day of the week he’s on camera. The Pentagon had to go on record today admitting that there was no intelligence indicating Iran was a direct threat to the USA.

    The killing of Khameini will have limited impact as he was elderly and in ill health so already had a succession plan in place. I know America is hoping for the Iranian population to rise up against the government and push for a regime change more aligned to Western interests and values. Unfortunately, recent history shows us that this never succeeds. Gadafi killed, Libya descends into violent chaos. Saddam Hussein killed, Iraq descends into violent chaos. Taliban leadership defeated, Afghanistan descends into violent chaos. Israel has decades-long history of assassinating Hamas and Hezbollah leaders yet those organisations continued to wage terror with malign effectiveness.

    America and its allies are also concerned about Iranian sleeper cells after a very open threat from the Iranian regime as the build up to the war was occurring. Contrary to public belief, Iranian intelligence officers don’t enter the US via the southern border. Particularly in this past year where immediate deportation is pretty much the standard. Iran’s Quds Force use high quality, forged passports and individuals from third party nations to infiltrate target countries through legitimate channels. They also recruit and fund local criminals to carry out activities on their behalf.

    Cover of my novel ‘Asset Seven’

    In my novel Asset Seven, one of the sub plots revolves around a Quds Force operation to get a dirty bomb detonated on American soil. The methods and tactics described in the story were drawn from real world events and close calls and my knowledge of Quds Force and their capabilities. The use of proximity countries for support and spring boarding of operations, and the exploitation of established criminal networks are all tried and trusted methods the Quds Force employs during its foreign operations. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine that the Iranian regime has already planned and prepared groups for internal attacks against America as well as its overseas interests.

    Donald Trump has put a timeframe of a month on this war. And I think his, and his party’s political future really hang in the balance here. This is the first time America has gone to war when the public opposed it. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc all had public support for the initial interventions. Iran does not. Trump also campaigned on a ticket of ‘No more foreign wars’, something his MAGA base felt strongly about and are angry with his about-turn. In two months he’s attacked two countries. Venezuela was explained away as, well, not really a war so it doesn’t count. Iran, however, is the very definition of a foreign war. The Pentagon and The White House are claiming that what the President actually meant when he was campaigning was ‘no more dumb foreign wars’. I guess the term ‘dumb’ is being left open for interpretation . . .

    Difficult to predict what’s going to happen with any certainty. America and Israel will win, but what that win will look like is anybody’s guess. The longer the conflict drags on, the more likelihood there is of Trump accepting even a small agreement from Iran that he can frame as victory and pull his armed forces out of the region. He will do this to protect his political future and won’t give a damn whether it suits Israel or not or whether Iran is as degraded as he demanded or not. In this case, Israel could well be left to face a wounded, raging Iran on its own. Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani has already warned that his country has “prepared itself for a long war”.

    Be prepared for a very fast media cycle on this one as events continue to unfold. America is actually sending more troops and assets to the region so that alone tells you they want this wrapped up fast.

    The cornered Bear

    How the war in Ukraine just turned really bad for Russia

    It should have taken 3 days.

    3 days for the self-proclaimed strongest military in the world to roll into a country it had already invaded and occupied areas within only 8 years before. The armoured vehicles even carrying victory paraphernalia such as flags and banners ready to display in the captured nation’s capital, Kyiv.

    Except it didn’t work out that way.

    It’s the 4-year ‘anniversary’ of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine. 4 years. That’s 4 years of constant war and attrition, particularly on the civilian population of Ukraine. When Russia began to realise that it was not going to win militarily, the targeting of energy infrastructure and civilian population zones began. An attempt to degrade Ukraine’s living conditions and force their government to concede defeat.

    Except it didn’t work out that way.

    The Ukrainians were far more resilient than most, even in the West, gave them credit for. Not only that, but they began to fight fire with fire, striking Russian refineries and gas installations deep inside Russia. This caused instant economic hurt for Russia which, as a petrostate reliant on exports of its petrochemicals, it cannot endure for even the shortest period of time. With 2026 planned and budgeted on an anticipated price for Russian oil that has now dropped, The Kremlin knows it is in deep trouble. It has already raided the social security budget to help offset the cost of the war but that’s a one trick pony; the money has gone and not been replaced. For the first time in recent history, both banks and business leaders in Russia are starting to speak openly about a financial catastrophe that is already underway. When you consider that openly criticising the government usually leads to a short trip out of a ten storey window, things must be very serious for these people to risk their statements.

    The Kremlin has also ceased bonus payments to its soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The one incentive which motivated young men from rural provinces to volunteer for the chance of a small sum of money with which to help their families. Worse than that however, and a more telling sign of the economic pain it is suffering, Russia has also stopped the death benefit paid to families and partners of the soldiers who died fighting in Ukraine.

    Russian women demanding the return of their sons from fighting in Ukraine. Getty Images

    The impact of this was immediate and a public relations headache for the government. Widows and mothers posting on social media about the government’s betrayal. Public marches covered by independent bloggers and state media highlighting the scale of the problem. The Kremlin responded by issuing a directive to military commanders that families were no longer to be notified, that bodies could be left in situ rather than being recovered for burial. That mass casualty events should be cleaned up before they could be filmed and the dead Russian soldiers buried in a mass grave.

    CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, assesses Russian battlefield casualties in Ukraine to be around 1.2 million. This also has a massive impact on The Kremlin’s war machine. The meat grinder of Ukraine requires constant feeding and Russia is running out of soldiers with fewer mobilisations occurring and fewer troops available. To counter this, they have come up with some rather . . . creative solutions.

    Indian press-ganged men in Ukraine

    Last year, a large group of men from India departed for Belarus after responding to a recruitment advert seeking individuals interested in becoming plumbers, electricians, and engineers. The recruitment company in Delhi arranged all the visas, paperwork, and transport for the hundreds of men who replied to the advertisements on social media. Some of the men found it odd that, on reaching the stopover in Russia, their passports and mobile phones were taken but accepted the ‘security protocol’ explanation given by their Russian hosts. That explanation was soon exposed as the lie it was when the men were driven to a military installation, processed into the army, beaten and abused, given a short training course and told they were being sent to fight in Ukraine. And if they refused or tried to run away, they would be shot by their officers as deserters.

    The men’s experiences of the front line paint a brutal picture of an army already in decline and snowballing downhill really fast. Command and control enforced by threat of execution. Troops forced at gunpoint to run at heavily defended Ukrainian positions. Constantly hunted and killed by drones. Commanders selling postings to the rear for money. Medical documents which ensured a departure from the war sold for cash by officers. Suicides, mental breakdowns, rife use of narcotics, torture. Several of the Indian returnees broke down when talking about their fellow men being raped by Russian soldiers at the front.

    But their experiences, incredibly, are in no way unique.

    African civilians fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

    Russia’s presence in African countries has provided it with access to large populations of disaffected individuals on the very lowest rung of the socioeconomic ladder. Young men easily duped into scams similar to that of the Indian men. A chance at a better future, qualifications, prospects, money to help your family. Young African men from over 30 different countries duped or scammed into fighting for Russia in a war they know nothing about. The stories which the survivors tell echo and support those which the Indian men relayed. The Africans tell of endemic racism, being openly referred to and deployed as cannon fodder, forced to charge the Ukrainian lines and exhaust the troops before Russian soldiers attacked. Kenyans, Ugandans, South Africans, dying in their hundreds in tactics more reminiscent of the First World War than a modern day conflict.

    Captured North Korean soldiers in Ukraine

    President Putin of Russia also sealed a deal whereby Russia supplied North Korea with military technical assistance in return for thousands of ground troops to deploy against Ukraine. These foreign fighters too, talked of confusion, brutality, broken logistic chains, lack of resupply.

    Cuban recruits with Russian military. Credit – Herrera family

    And to add to the international flavour of Russia’s ‘special military operation’, let’s not forget the thousands of Cubans fighting on the front lines. Again, mostly poor young men escaping poverty by answering employment adverts, another pipeline of cannon fodder for The Kremlin to throw at Ukrainian defences. In an interesting development, Cuba’s Foreign Minister confirmed that Russia will be sending oil and other petroleum products to the island nation in the guise of ‘humanitarian aid’. As Cuba imported around 60% of its oil from Venezuela, it has almost run dry since the USA attacked Venezuela and cut off the supply to Cuba. I don’t think there’s much doubt that in return for his magnanimous gesture, Putin will request a formal agreement for troops to be provided to assist Russia.

    Ukrainian soldier with Starlink apparatus. Credit – Reuters

    So far, I’ve mentioned the Russian economy and the struggle for manpower as being 2 key factors in why the pressure is ramping up fast. But there’s a third, very recent development that is accelerating the pressure in real time. Starlink, the mobile internet developed by Elon Musk, has been the main platform for Russian communications and command, including drone coordination and deployment. When Ukraine and Europe rightly asked why a businessman with US government contracts was profiting from large scale attacks against civilians, Musk was shamed into shutting down the illicit terminals being used by the Russian military. While Both Ukraine and Russia’s military have been using and relying heavily on the platform, Ukraine has officially registered Starlink terminals whereas Russia has sourced theirs through third-party providers to evade sanctions.

    The impact was instant.

    All Russian battlefield communications were affected. As one Russian officer explained ‘ . . . it was as though someone had turned off a switch across our whole military.’ So, if things were fraught and confusing before, they just got a whole lot worse. But not to worry, the soldiers could always return to their use of Telegram, the messaging App beloved and utilised for both personal and official use.

    Except they couldn’t.

    The Kremlin, in an attempt to silence the bad news coming from the Ukraine frontlines and the affected families at home, had shut down the App without warning. So now the Russian military fighting in Ukraine are literally resorting to speaking over captured radios which of course, are intercepted and used as targeting lock-ons for Ukrainian drone, jet, and artillery strikes. Russians have been shelling each other’s positions as confusion and panic abound. Resupply and logistic support has all but ceased due to Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine has recaptured over 400 Square kilometres in under two weeks, its biggest gain in two and a half years.

    The problem for Russia is that they have no replacement for Starlink. No redundancy was built in as a failsafe or even a backup. So, for the time being at least, they are like a boxer in the ring whose eyes have been swollen shut, waiting to take the blows before they can lash out wildly in the direction they think they came.

    So, massive economic pressures that are starting to become public knowledge. Returning soldiers and their families telling the hard truths all over social media. Troop shortages that are being plugged by scams and press-gang tactics to pull in conscripts from abroad. Operational communications blackout showing immediate effect and losses for Russia. There’s very few administrations on the planet that could hold it together with all these factors smashing them at once, let alone a dictatorship ruled by one ageing individual.

    And, not that you need it after reading this, but if you wanted any further confirmation that Russia is seriously on the back foot after these recent developments, have a look at this.

    Air Defence positions covering Putin’s Valdai residence

    The green marker is Vladimir Putin’s lakeside Valdai residence. The red markers are Air Defence (AD) positions sited to cover and protect the residence from Ukrainian drone, missile, or jet attacks. The yellow marker is the S-400 Triumf, Russia’s advanced mobile long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, designed to detect and destroy aircraft, drones, and missiles up to 400 km away. In 2023/2024 there were only 2 AD systems in this area. So, a massive increase to say the least.

    And the more worrying aspect of this for Russia?

    Ukraine’s Flamingo missiles, in the last week, have struck Russian military targets as far as 1400km inside Russia. Defeating Russian air defences. So, Putin may believe he has a ring of steel around his lakeside residence, but these recent strikes show that Ukrainian missiles are capable of beating those air defence systems.

    What’s also noticeable is Russia’s latest stance on the ‘peace’ talks in Geneva involving Russia, the USA, and Ukraine. Demands of totality. No grey areas. Different personalities now representing the Kremlin at the talks. Putin cannot walk away from Ukraine without anything resembling a win. To do so seals his own political and, as this is Russia we’re talking about, probably physical, fate. His country is broke, his people disaffected, the oligarchs he previously controlled now plot against him because they are losing money. The deal Putin struck with the oligarchs was always one where as long as they pledged allegiance to him, he would allow them to make money in whatever manner they wanted.

    But they’re no longer making that kind of money.

    The deal no longer works for them and they’re starting to look at what might come next. Or rather, who might come next. Because they need that person to be one of them, or at least, one who looks after them.

    Many people who read my articles and books regularly ask why the current American administration supports Russia so much. A country representing an ideology that Americans have sent their sons and daughters to fight against since the end of World War 2. Even given Trump’s transactional nature, they can’t understand why the USA suddenly switched it’s support to a country with an economy the size of Italy’s. Russia has openly promised the USA riches of 12 Trillion Dollars. As that’s 6 times the size of Russia’s entire economy, I’m smelling a slight exaggeration here. And its the usual trifecta of access to giant oil deposits, rare earth minerals in the arctic, and access to 145 million consumers.

    Except . . .

    The oil deposits are old and pretty depleted, the minerals are not definitive in terms of quantity, quality or even viability to be accessed, and as for 145 million consumers? The vast majority of Russians are poor. Really poor. So, expensive American exports are not something with which to build a future economic prediction upon. For America as a nation, I don’t see much upside. For Russia, however, any foreign investment and trade will be welcomed with open arms.

    But . . .

    Even amongst Republicans in Congress and The Senate, there are some serious dissenters over President Trump’s determination for Russia to succeed in its war on Ukraine. Formerly quiet voices are now openly questioning why their Administration is giving clear support to Russia while practically ordering Ukraine to surrender and accede to all Russian demands. As Trump’s physical and political health declines, these voices are growing in number and volume. So, any trade agreements or deals struck in the near future might become null and void a lot sooner than Russia would like.

    With Russia being the authoritarian state that it is, no independent media reporting of note exists. The state running the media as a propaganda arm of the government. So it is rare when political dissent from state representatives is covered in any depth or even reported at all. In December, Grigory Yeremeev, a politician from the Volga region of Russia, delivered a speech in Parliament where he demanded an end to the war in Ukraine and openly stated that it was a direct failure for Putin and his regime. Despite being screamed and shouted at by Putin’s acolytes and arse kissers, he concluded his speech laying the failure of the war and the destruction of the Russian economy at the feet of Vladimir Putin. This week, Yeremeev was charged with the standard ‘discrediting the Army’ for his temerity in daring to make public the true state of Russia as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.

    In another crackdown on free speech and communications, the Kremlin has also shut down WhatsApp as people were turning to this as an alternative to Telegram which had been shut down earlier. Informed sources, however, believe that the WhatsApp denial is aimed at curbing gatherings and protests that have been steadily growing over the past few months.

    Russian National Guard – Rosvgardia

    A recent action which supports this theory is the sweeping powers that Putin has granted the Russian National Guard, The Rosvgardia. Formerly a state security force which responded to internal threats to the regime, Rosvgardia is now a major paramilitary force in its own right. It now has its own organic heavy weapons, armoured tanks and vehicles, special forces, intelligence, and immediate combat readiness and is deployed at the order and direction of the president. Putin’s own private army more or less. This month, Rosvgardia was given another set of sweeping powers with which to ‘protect the nation’. Powers that resemble the regime cracking down hard on anything that even smells like dissent against the state narrative. Another sign that all is not well from behind the rusting sheets of what’s left of the Iron Curtain.

    Short of tactical nuclear weapons, Putin has thrown everything he has at Ukraine and continues to fail. He has bankrupted his country, repressed its citizens and their free speech, and convinced the US President to back him in winning his war. The only problem with that is he is doing the opposite of winning. Putin is losing. Regularly.

    As the title of this article alludes to, the Russian Bear is cornered at the moment. Pressure from three different elements combining to stress test Putin’s command and control. And a cornered Bear is the most dangerous. With nothing to lose, there’s no telling what the world’s foremost dictator will do to hold on to power and continue with his quest to recreate the USSR.

    War in a week?

    The biggest military deployment since 2003 is happening now

    War in a week?

    That’s not conjecture or hyperbole. As of today, it’s a very real possibility. Since the bombing of Iranian targets last year, the USA has been engaging with Iran on a two-pronged front. Diplomatic negotiations between White House representatives and those from the Iranian regime, and a steady build up of force in the region to display physical consequences if agreements are not reached.

    I, like many others, assumed the situation had reached an impasse when Donald Trump stated that because the Iranians didn’t concede to his demands he was imposing tariffs. That’s right, tariffs. A meaningless measure against a country hardened and accustomed to enduring and evading international sanctions. Trump had obviously become bored with the political stalemate and wanted to move on, bigger fish to fry and all that.

    But Israel wasn’t happy.

    Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington at very short notice bringing with him not the diplomats and negotiators one would expect on such a visit but his hawks. The key military figures who are keying up Israel’s next strike against Iran. A strike that needed simultaneous US action to maximise its effectiveness. Trump bored and moving on from the Iran issue was not something Netanyahu wanted to see. After this meeting, the build up of American military troops and hardware to the region intensified in a big way.

    But is it all just a bluff? Sabre-rattling to convince Iran that the US will wield the stick if the carrot fails?

    No. Unfortunately, it’s not.

    These are the movements of in-flight refuelling tankers from 2 days ago. You don’t send these aircraft as part of a bluff. There’s no point to it. They’re the logistics chain. You send them when you know you’re going to have thirsty aircraft needing to refuel after bombing or attack runs. These are among the last types of aircraft that the USA has been quietly stacking around bases in the Middle East.

    Here’s some who got there before:

    American attack aircraft, Jordan (Planet Labs)
    American Electronic Warfare aircraft, Jordan. (Planet Labs)
    Recently arrived MQ9-Reaper Drones, Jordan. (Planet Labs)
    Two P-8 Poseidon surveillance planes, two MC-130J special forces planes and three KC-135 Stratotankers, Diego Garcia. (Planet Labs)

    Another pointer that strengthens the conclusion of physical confrontation? The deployment of Combat Search And Rescue (CSAR) personnel and aircraft. Again, you don’t send these assets to a contested region unless you’re anticipating the possibility of downed pilots.

    U.S. Air Force CSAR HC-130J Combat King II. (Credit – U.S. Air Force)

    The aircraft above is a HC-130J Combat King II, a specialized beast which supports CSAR missions in hostile environments. It is equipped for long-range operations, night missions, and aerial refueling of rescue helicopters. The aircraft can refuel two HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopters simultaneously, allowing rescue crews to operate deep inside contested airspace. Two of these aircraft and their crews were recently deployed from their home base in Florida to undisclosed bases in the Middle East.

    These aircraft are typically deployed in advance of or during air combat operations to ensure the recovery of downed aircrews. They facilitate U.S. commanders maintaining personnel recovery capability during high-risk air operations, including those involving strikes or sustained air activity over hostile territory. Again, not any point in deploying as part of a sabre-rattling exercise but essential for combat operations.

    Interestingly, many of the USA’s allies in the region have refused permission for America to transit their airspace for any confrontation with Iran. Citing fear of imminent reprisal from the regime, this has pushed the US into deploying a massive naval contingent including the aircraft carrier the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest warship ever built. The Ford has been at sea since June 2025 and the Commander of the US Fleet, Admiral Daryl Caudle, pushed back against extending the crew’s deployment even further. To give this some context, if, as the crew has been informed, this extension of their deployment is scheduled until April 2026, it will break post-Vietnam War records for operational duration. But the Admiral’s pushback was ignored and the USS Gerald R. Ford is on track to reach the coast of Israel either today or tomorrow. Once again, unnecessary to keep these poor sailors away from their families for another extended period if all you were doing was sabre-rattling. However, when your Middle Eastern allies close off their airspace for your combat operations, you need to source and use your own launch platforms.

    Will the USA definitely strike Iran? Latest statements from the White House claim that the world will know in 10 day’s time. That seems to me to be well beyond the threshold for keeping pre-positioned troops and assets safe. The Iranians have already deployed a Shahed drone against a US ship which shot it down when it got too close. These carrier groups and major military assets forward deployed represent targets for as long as they are in the region. Leaving them in situ for a further 10 days seems irrational and unwise. But then again, another 10 days gives the President of the USA some time to come up with the reason he’s committed the biggest military expedition since 2003 to the region. To date, he hasn’t actually stated the justification for this intervention and in fact, as major news outlets have noted, hasn’t bothered involving Congress or even any public debate or consultation. His critics point out that having to strike Iran again so soon after his last foray only proves that the previous bombings had little to no effect, despite Trump’s claims of garlanded glory.

    And the Iranian regime? They’re actually talking a hard game with mentions of Red Lines and unacceptable American demands. Warning that the US could still be dealt a heavy blow despite the size and strength of their military contingent. In private, a law firm in France has seen over a thousand percent increase in visa applications from wealthy Iranians. Russia has confirmed it will take fleeing heads of the Iranian regime and provide them sanctuary in Moscow. Russia has also, in the past week, delivered weapons technology in exchange for gold in a further quid pro quo for Iran’s supply of missiles and drones for Putin’s war against Ukraine. Yesterday Russia also conducted joint naval exercises with Iran near the Straits of Hormuz. While a lot of journalists pointed to this as Russia warning the US not to strike Iran, the Russian element was minimal in number and effect and more just a show of solidarity with Iran.

    China is also displeased at what it perceives as unchecked US aggression against one of China’s main suppliers of discounted oil. Importing 1.4 million barrels per day, this is a significant supply chain for Chinese energy. China supplies Iran with missile and air defence technology components that it can’t get anywhere else due to sanctions. I’ve seen reports of a marked increase in Chinese military freight planes landing in Iran since the beginning of February but no further details on what they could have been carrying. Despite this symbiotic relationship, China won’t openly support a direct confrontation with the US but will happily stoke the fires from the background.

    The scale and complement of this deployment already shows that this confrontation will be very different to the surgical strikes the USA implemented last year. This is a deployment that is anticipating weeks of operations, not just a day. And you know, maybe, just maybe, it is a bluff but if that’s the case, it’s a very bold call. Very bold. To expose an enormous task force to potential attack in the name of a diplomatic deal? As I said earlier, I’d buy that if it wasn’t for the logistic and rescue support elements deployed alongside the tip of the spear.

    So, the biggest military build-up since Iraq in 2003 is happening now and we don’t know whether it’s war or sabre-rattling of the most dangerous kind. We’re told we’ll find out in 10 days.

    My gut tells me we will find out, one way or another, a lot sooner than that.

    BANNER BETRAYED

    How the UK Government betrayed its Northern Ireland Veterans

    Army Officer, Northern Ireland. Credit – MoD

    When the Conservative government pushed through a bill titled The Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy & Reconciliation) Act 2023, it seemed like a final end to the persecution and prosecution of Northern Ireland Veterans. The Veterans of Operation Banner, the overarching term for the deployment of British troops over the almost 40 year conflict. Perhaps, former soldiers now in their 60s, 70s, and 80s could finally be at peace knowing that they would no longer be dragged into the media spotlight and taken to court for alleged wrongdoings going back over 50 years. Alleged wrongdoings which had been investigated at the time and the individuals in question cleared. Alleged wrongdoings in which NO new evidence has been discovered or disclosed but yet these British Veterans were still compelled by the UK government to submit to these show trials.

    Imagine in 1975, a 50 year old Veteran of The Black Watch (or any regional regiment) standing trial for using questionable force against a platoon of German soldiers in the Reichswald Forest in 1945. No evidence submitted to support the spurious claim but the former soldier nonetheless is taken to a court in Germany to face the prosecution and provide testimony to refute the allegations. German media portray him as a criminal who has escaped justice for over 30 years while the families of the German dead portray their sons as mere defenders of their homes and families. German politicians bluster before the cameras, painting the narrative that Britain let loose an army of murderers and psychopaths who killed and wounded at will.

    Except, of course, such a fanciful incident never came to pass. Well, not until the Northern Ireland conflict.

    Even before Labour ascended to power in the UK, they’d made it clear that they intended repealing the immunity against prosecution which Veterans now had under the Conservative’s bill. Think about that for a moment; they made this aim clear before they came into power. That alone, I believe demonstrates the party’s strength of feeling on the subject and their disregard and contempt for the soldiers who served their country under the governments that had gone before. And that brings me nicely to my next point.

    Why is it always the poor rank and file of the military that are hounded by these vexatious claims? Where the hell are the former Prime Ministers, Defence Ministers, Chiefs of Defence Staffs, Generals, Colonels, being brought before these kangaroo courts? You know, the architects and directors of the military deployments to Northern Ireland. Those responsible for sending a fighting force to quell a civil disturbance and keep the peace. A role that the British military was wholly inadequate of performing, particularly in the early days of The Troubles.

    These governments took thousands of young soldiers, many poorly educated and from the lower socio-economic tiers of British society. Young men with limited prospects but for whom the military offered a structured career path. But these young men were trained for combat, fighting, killing. And suddenly they found themselves dumped into the streets of Belfast and Londonderry. Streets that for a lot of them, were not too dissimilar from the poverty stricken areas of their own home towns. A few weeks training provided in ‘riot control’, ‘civil disturbance’, ‘searching of people and property’ was deemed enough to cater for the transition from war fighting to keeping the peace.

    Unfortunately, our adversaries were anything but peaceful.

    Female IRA member with AR18 in Belfast. Credit – Colman Doyle

    The dissonance of walking streets that looked not unlike your own home town but that illusion shattered with the crack of 7.62mm gunshots reverberating around a quiet cut de sac. The gun fired by a woman covering an IRA team caught planting an explosive device. A woman who looked just like the girls you chatted up in your local bars and nightclubs, Dressed like she could be off for a drink with her friends before hitting the dance floor. That image unreconcilable with the heavy rifle almost as long as she is tall. The soldier pauses, initially morally confused at the prospect of opening fire against the girl, then unsure whether or not there is a rule against shooting at women. By the time his adrenalin abates and his decision making faculties return, the woman is gone.

    This is not a fight that these soldiers were properly trained or equipped to succeed in. Centuries of sectarian divide and antipathy now concentrated on urban and rural focus points and a prominent target: The British Military. Easy to identify, easy to find, and, initially at least, easy to kill. As the violence and danger escalates, British troops find themselves having to make split second decisions on complex situations. Rules of Engagement, ROEs, become a crucial element to the soldiers’ operations. Guidelines become directives, become formal rules printed on cards for immediate personal access. To sum it up though, the infamous Yellow Card issued to soldiers really still left the final decision to shoot or not with the individual. An individual trained to meet conflict with aggression and violence of action, to neutralise the threat in order to save the lives of he and his fellow soldiers. Years of training in section and troop/platoon attacks, fire and manoeuvre, marksmanship principles. Skills hardwired into the DNA of the infantry soldier. But now expected to switch all that muscle memory off and adapt to an entirely different set of parameters.

    City Patrol, 1990s

    As time went on, training and preparation for troops deploying to Northern Ireland improved as lessons were fed back from the operational environment. But soldiers’ and Marines’ raison d’être was war fighting, not the complex counterinsurgency they were still being rotated through for 6 month tours. The mission specific training for Northern Ireland was much better in preparing troops for the environment in which they would be operating but the reality on the ground was still surprising to most. Particularly as the enemy had also been adapting as the years passed.

    The IRA knew and exploited the military’s ROEs. A gunman opens fire on an Army foot patrol, sprints down an alley and passes the weapon to a waiting teenager who will get the gun away from the immediate area. The gunman well aware the soldiers couldn’t open fire on an unarmed man, his only concern getting to the safe house where a bath and a change of clothing was waiting. Wouldn’t matter that the gunman may have killed or seriously wounded the soldiers he fired upon, he knows the soldiers can’t shoot him if he isn’t carrying a weapon.

    For the members of the patrol, their experience of the event is very different. Colleagues and mates killed or wounded, screaming in pain. Getting everyone into cover, sending the Contact Report over the radio, calling for the Casualty Evacuation, CASEVAC. Screaming for immediate first aid to the dying and wounded. Coordinating the follow up and pursuit of the gunman. Trying to shut out the jeers and cheering from the local population making clear their joy at the death and injuries the soldiers have suffered. The patrol commander yelling commands to cordon off the area praying that he’s not sending his men into another ambush or a pre-placed IED. The soldier who had the gunman in his sights devastated that he hadn’t pulled the trigger. But the shooter hadn’t been carrying the weapon by then. And the soldier knew the rules. Knew his ROEs by heart. Knew shooting an unarmed man was not permitted under those ROEs. Even if that man had, only seconds earlier, killed and wounded the soldier’s friends and colleagues. And had now escaped. Probably to be spirited over the border for a soak period before returning back to Belfast to a hero’s welcome.

    The IRA however, had no ROEs. Car bombs, culvert bombs, mortars from converted 44 gallon drums, are not weapons designed to minimise civilian casualties. PIRA’s South Armagh Brigade’s improvised giant flamethrower from a converted slurry tanker a good example of this. A weapon of terror if ever there was one. The IRA had amongst its ranks gunmen, bombers, torturers, armed robbers, murderers, snipers, explosives experts, intelligence officers, kidnappers, extortionists, getaway drivers, hide custodians. When ‘peace’ eventually came to Northern Ireland under the guise of The Good Friday Agreement, these terrorists and criminals were finally . . . absolved of all crimes. Even the worst of the worst who remained On The Run, OTR, for the most serious bombings and killings, were provided with formal letters guaranteeing their safety from prosecution. Come home, all is forgiven.

    And for the soldiers sent to police this conflict for the best part of 40 years? The threat of court cases being driven by the republican movement to continue the conflict through lawfare rather than warfare. Exploiting the legal system and the UK’s lack of spine in standing up to baseless allegations of incidents long since investigated and the individual cleared. To reframe the narrative of the conflict for new generations and control the quickening media cycle on the emerging internet. But, for the former soldiers, no such amnesty. No Comfort Letter telling them the past was the past and just get on with your life. That, as there was no new or even further evidence provided regarding the respective incident, there was no case to answer.

    Alas, this was not, and is not, the case.

    Dennis Hutchings at a court attendance

    Army Veteran Dennis Hutchings died in 2021 at the age of 80 while going through a trial for a tragic incident that took place in Northern Ireland in 1974. 47 years before. He was already in ill health when the trial process began but this was not even a consideration in deciding whether the trial should take place. Dennis died while the trial and its outcome were still ongoing and I can only imagine the utter dejection he suffered and the disappointment he must have felt for his country and his government.

    But there’s also the hypocrisy of these show trials. Old-aged pensioners are being demanded to remember, in detail, things that happened when they were in their late teens or early twenties. And when they struggle to recall these details, it’s labelled as dishonesty, lies.

    Gerry Adams leaving court in Dublin. Credit – Tom Honan

    Contrast this with Gerry Adams’ statements during a defamation trial in Dublin in May 2025. The 76 year old was being questioned about incidents and details of IRA activities over the duration of the Northern Ireland conflict. On several occasions, Adams made the point that he couldn’t be expected to remember details from so long ago, that there was so much going on, it would be impossible for him to recall specifics. Also, for Adams, there have been several individuals who have independently provided new evidence on crimes that directly implicate Adams. NEW evidence from SEVERAL sources. Not a rehash of rumour and circumspect masquerading as evidence. But Adams, like the rest of the Provisional IRA, seems to have nothing to fear in terms of being brought to justice.

    So, for former IRA gunmen and bombers, the Tony Blair government ensured that these men and women need never worry about setting foot in a courtroom unless they commit another crime. But the pensioners and ageing veterans the governments at the time sent to Northern Ireland have no such assurances. And again, none of them are former defence ministers, Generals, or Colonels. No Chiefs of Staffs or General Officers Commanding. It’s always the rank and file, the poor sod on the ground implementing poorly thought out policies in the face of violence and extreme danger. Young men who had to make split second decisions on complicated situations with the minimum of training and experience in the environment.

    My new book is currently titled ‘The Kill Chain’, a reference to the fact that when a young Private or Marine pulls the trigger during an engagement, they don’t do it in isolation. There’s a chain of command and control which put the young soldier or Marine in that place and time. A Kill Chain. Yet, it’s only ever the very bottom link on that chain that is ever held to account for the outcome on the ground.

    Northern Ireland Veterans have been betrayed by the government. Not let down, not disappointed. Betrayed. The government didn’t have to repeal the Veterans’ immunity under the Conservatives’ bill. Certainly didn’t have to repeal it with such pride and publicity. But they did. And as we enter an era where it’s almost a certainty that major conflict involving the UK is on the horizon and the government is trying to encourage people to join the Armed Forces? Good luck with that one. I’m not going to go into the suffering of the Iraq veterans wrongly accused of misdeeds and whose lives were ruined due to crooked law firms and government apathy. This post isn’t about that, but what it shows is that there is a constant thread that anyone thinking of joining the Armed Forces should seriously consider. A thread that makes it clear that while the government will send you to countries to conduct military operations in line with their foreign policies, don’t count on any support when you really need it.

    When terrorists and criminals are free to walk the streets but 80 year old Veterans are on trial for military actions almost half a century before, actions already cleared and settled, there is something seriously bloody wrong with our governments, and the system itself.

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