James E Mack

Author of Military Thrillers and Spy Fiction

Category: Topical Page 1 of 3

US troops to Iran

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On March 28, 2026

In Military Matters, Topical

Why are US ground troops going to fight for Saudi Arabia?

Front page Tehran Times

I’m pretty sure EVERY military advisor/planner/expert/consultant is watching what I’m watching and shaking their collective heads vehemently.

What are we watching?

Well, in addition to the Marines and 82nd Airborne troops allegedly heading to the Middle East already, how about the 70 flights of mainly troop and cargo carrying aircraft that have departed various special operations bases in the US in the last 48 hours?

Some of the bases the aircraft have departed from include:

Hunter Army Airfield, home of the 160th Night Stalkers and 75th Rangers
Naval Air Station Oceana home of DEVGRU or SEAL Team 6 as most people know it
Cannon Air Force Base, home of Air Force Special Operations
Hurlburt Field, AFSOC headquarters
Fort Campbell, 5th Special Forces Group

I’ve held back from commenting on the Marines and 82nd Airborne’s deployments as, in all honesty, part of me believed it was part of a strategic communication to the Iranian regime: We’re not afraid to put boots on the ground to finish the job.

But they should be.

That’s the one military move from the US that Iran would welcome. They know the power of the optics of American soldiers coming home in body bags. They know the rallying call to the Ummah, the greater Muslim family, that an American occupation of a Muslim country will provide. But America’s military command know this. Much better than little old James E Mack, sipping coffee and typing away from his home office on the east coast of Scotland. Which, naturally, begs the question;

Why the hell are Americans going to put their troops on Iranian soil?

The answer is actually quite surprising.

While many in the USA who oppose the war are laying the blame at Israel for dragging their country into another ‘dumb’ war, there is another player in the game who, more than Israel, has been demanding American troops in Iran for some time.

KSA. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Under the Trump administration, very close economic and military ties have been forged between the nations. While previous administrations such as Obama’s restricted the sale of certain weapon types to KSA, in both Trump’s terms, he released these restrictions. In May 2025, during his second term, Trump signed a new $142 billion agreement. This deal is officially promoted as the largest single weapons agreement between the two nations, though, as in Trump’s first term where his claim of $110 billion in sales was actually $42 billion, it remains to be seen how many of these intended sales will be fully realized.

In addition, massive tech deals ‘encouraged’ by the White House have also been a key element in investment agreements between the USA and KSA. Companies such as Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are all lead elements in this trade. Controversy over the sale of certain strands of technology included as part of this deal were dismissed by the White House as irrelevant.

For his part, Mohammed Bin Salman, MBS, the crown prince and de facto ruler of KSA, has pledged $600 billion in investment in the USA which he claimed could rise to as much as $1 trillion.

My point in highlighting these deals is not to bore you with stats and data but give you some context for where KSA’s leverage comes from. Because, as I said earlier, no senior military commander in the US could possibly believe American troops in Iran can be a good idea. But the troops are going, and if it’s not America’s idea, then whose is it?

It’s at the direct request of MBS. For the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The American/Israeli war against Iran has not panned out the way it was supposed to have. A blitzkrieg of surgical strikes and the decapitation of the regime’s leadership to encourage the population to rise up, overthrow the remaining hardliners and select a government of their own. Militarily, Iran has been smashed, no question. But strategically?

Definitely not.

And that’s where KSA comes in. MBS played a bit of a double hand by publicly claiming he was not allowing the US to use his airspace when attacking Iran but was then caught red-handed facilitating US support. When Trump paused his intense bombing campaign in the hope that it would encourage dialogue with Iran, MBS told Trump directly that he had to keep bombing Iran until regime change happens. Anything short of that leaves KSA completely exposed to decades of overt and covert retaliation from Iran and its proxies in the region.

As its become clearer that Trump is desperate to walk away from this ill-thought war, KSA has suddenly realised the precarious position he is in. With a fully defeated Iran, KSA is the new king of the hill in the Middle East, a petrochemical powerhouse running the entire show. Anything less than this, and he and his kingdom are looking at decades of conflict and terrorism. His demands have now changed to pleas, best demonstrated by Donald Trump’s statement on Friday at a Saudi Investor’s Conference:

“He didn’t think he would be kissing my ass… and now he has to be nice to me,” Continuing his remarks, Trump said, “He (Mohammed bin Salman) thought I’d be just another American president that was a loser, where the country was going downhill. But now he has to be nice to me. You tell him he’d better be nice to me. He’s got to be.”

Compare this to Trump’s description only days earlier, where he referred to Mohammed bin Salman as a “warrior” aligned with the United States, particularly in the context of the conflict with Iran: “He is a warrior. He is fighting with us, by the way.”

There you have it. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia goes from ‘warrior’ to ‘ass kisser’ in a matter of days. Why? Because the power shifted. Initially as a supporting element to the war, MBS was confident that Trump and Netanyahu would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age and he and his Kingdom would rise to become the most powerful player in the Middle East.

But then Trump got bored.

He’s openly stated as much. His morning briefings on the war in Iran literally just a snuff montage of bombs and explosions as his staff desperately try to hold his attention. He’s already said openly he wants to wrap Iran up and move to Cuba. Israel and KSA do not like this one bit. As neighbours of Iran, their citizens will suffer the lethal consequences of an undefeated Iran hell bent on vengeance. Israel is also quietly acknowledging that the war has not gone to plan for them and that’s why we are starting to see their objectives clashing with Trump’s. The White House is desperately seeking an off ramp. Israel is not. Like KSA, it needs Iran completely defeated.

And now MBS has made it clear to the Trump administration that if the US doesn’t secure complete regime change in Iran, all those shiny trade and security deals of hundreds of billions of dollars are going to go up in black, bombed-refinery smoke. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to all but those Iran decides can pay the fee and enjoy safe transit. The bombing campaign has decimated the Iranian military but it has not defeated the defensive drone and missile salvos screaming through the skies toward American aligned or adjacent targets.

Including KSA.

Now, I don’t mean to be too disparaging here but I can tell you from personal experience that, while KSA has a massive defence budget and is probably the best equipped military in the region (other than Israel of course), as combat forces they are very underwhelming. In common with many of the Gulf nations, they have so much disposable funds they spend an absolute fortune on the best kit and equipment. They hire legions of military contractors to train their forces. But, and this really the point, they are not particularly capable, proven by their poor performance in Yemen, a small scale conflict where KSA struggled to achieve even their most modest of objectives. So, going head to head with Iran? A nation accustomed to constant conflict and war?

No contest.

KSA absolutely needs the USA to step up to the plate here and that’s exactly what’s happening. Donald Trump is gleeful at MBS’ relegation to lower tier status but also recognises the truth in what MBS stated. The bombings haven’t achieved their aims and if regime change doesn’t happen, oil prices will actually increase and Iran will have a stranglehold on this economic leverage for the foreseeable future. Trump can lie and obfuscate many things from the ordinary man and woman in the US but he can’t hide gas (petrol) prices. Every time someone fills up their car there is the automatic I can’t believe gas is now $4 . . . $5 . . . $6 . . . $7 . . . While America does have a slightly better hedge against rising oil prices than a lot of other countries, it isn’t anywhere near enough to offset anything as significant as it would need to.

Trump is always looking for the economic gain in any venture and the Iran war is no different. While taking MBS’ points on board, he has weighed up the loss of the potential investments MBS committed to the USA. He will also have looked at what monetary gain could be claimed for securing the region by facilitating full regime change in Iran. And let’s face it, if the USA actually carried out a full regime change in Iran, secured the country and made the neighbouring countries safe, he can pretty much name his price and take it.

But that’s a bloody big if.

And it can’t be achieved without tens of thousands of troops at a minimum and years of occupation. A model we’ve seen fail in every other recent foreign venture. But unless Iran completely capitulates, American troops are coming in numbers. As I’ve said before, there are CIA and special operations elements in country already but the big Green Machine will soon be on its way. Unless Iran agrees to a complete regime change and surrenders completely.

And that’s the best option for all concerned.

The White House has stated that there are now 13 American dead and around 300 injured. And breaking news from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that a further 15 were wounded this morning and AWACS and refuelling Stratotankers hit during the same attack. The New York Times also recently exposed the fact that Iran has attacked and rendered ‘nearly uninhabitable’ around 17 US military bases in the Middle East. And that hundreds of military personnel are ‘working remotely from hotels’.

That’s not good.

US CAG/Delta Force operators

A report which hit the headlines in recent days broke the news of the USA’s Tier 1 special forces unit CAG/Delta Force plan to enter Iran and grab the 450kg of enriched uranium Iran is said to hold. This involved massive military support elements and assaults on multiple locations and, while not shelved indefinitely, the logistics required and high risk nature of the venture have put it on hold for at least the time being.

With the large mobilisation of the special operations units I highlighted at the start of this article and the thousands of troops already in the region, a ground war looks almost certain. And I believe Trump’s mockery of MBS supports this. Warrior to Ass Kisser in a couple of days says to me that Trump has agreed to put troops into Iran to secure KSA’s future and that Trump now ‘owns’ MBS. And while MBS has committed KSA troops to assist the US ground elements, the heavy lifting and actual fighting will be done by US troops. A lot of them.

By committing to this however, Trump has boxed himself into a corner: He has to win. For the man who campaigned on ‘no more foreign wars’, he is already straining his bedrock support to breaking point. American soldiers coming home in body bags will snap this, particularly where many of the American public believe their country was dragged into this by Israel. As I hope I’ve highlighted in this article, while there is some truth to this, the powerful lobbying/bribing from another nation is responsible for Trump’s commitment to putting American troops in harms way:

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

My fervent hope is that Iran capitulates, regime change is orchestrated by the people of Iran and there’s no need for American troops to enter Iran in numbers. Because, as we’ve seen from the last two foreign military misadventures, one can win the war but be completely defeated by the peace. A peace which is measured in the numbers of dead service men and women in the name of whatever new objective its nation decides is most relevant to the venture.

And in this case, the objective of securing KSA as the key petrochemical power in the region might not be enough to convince an American public that the sacrifice is worth the lives of their bright, young things.

Again.

That time Iran defeated America . . . And how a report that showed Iran could hurt the US was hidden for 20 years

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On March 20, 2026

In Military Matters, Topical

It’s July 2002. George W Bush is the President of the USA. In the Persian Gulf, a US Navy carrier group comes under surprise attack from a wave of missiles launched from commercial ships and radio-silent aircraft. The carrier group’s defences are overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the incoming missiles. 19 US ships, including the main aircraft carrier, are destroyed and sunk within 10 minutes. 20,000 US troops killed and lying dead at the bottom of a foreign sea. The Pentagon is stunned. Staff officers at Norfolk Command turn to stare at each other, open mouthed and wide-eyed in horror. A middle eastern adversary has just decimated one of the most powerful military expeditionary forces in the world.

In 10 minutes.

This was not foreseen, planned for, or even considered as a remote possibility when, hours before, the US had demanded the unconditional surrender of the adversary and a commitment from them to cease any offensive or even defensive actions. And now the most powerful military in the world has suffered its biggest defeat in history with 20,000 of its finest service personnel dead at the bottom of the ocean.

Fortunately, this was just an exercise.

But a very realistic one. A war game. An officially run stress test to simulate how a planned scenario would play out if it was conducted for real. This exercise was called Millennium Challenge 2002 and was the largest ever joint military exercise conducted by the United States. Designed over 2 years and costing around $250 million with 14,000 participants, every facet of a military deployment to potential hostilities was included.

The background to this exercise was a theocratic, Middle Eastern country with an Army, Navy, and Air Force and where relations with the US had descended into open hostility. Oh, and the country also had significant natural resources critical for global trade and commerce.

Sound a wee bit familiar?

In these war games, everything is done for real. Manpower, logistics, capabilities, are all utilised from current resources. The good guys are referred to as Blue Forces, the bad guys are Red Forces. In this exercise, the Blue Forces were of course, the US Military. For the Red Forces, the Pentagon wanted someone suitably qualified to assume the role of military commander of a hostile middle eastern nation. A military or former military senior officer with relevant experience.

Enter Marine Lt General (Retired) Paul Van Riper.

It should be noted that Van Riper was not a corridor-slinking staff officer. A multi-decorated combat veteran, he was assessed as one of the finest field commanders to grace the United States Marine Corps. Based upon his long career and experience of command, The Pentagon probably assumed that Van Riper would apply conventional US doctrine and tactics in his responses to the Blue Team actions.

They couldn’t have been more wrong.

Assuming his role as Major General in command of his nation’s armed forces, Van Riper immediately looked for his opponent’s key weaknesses and devoted his main effort to exploiting these. His first assessment was that the Blue Forces would rely heavily on technology to identify Red Forces military capabilities and infrastructure. They would also depend upon that same technology to intercept commands and directives, giving them advance notice of Red Force intentions and the ability to strike these. Van Riper knew that satellites, SIGINT platforms and ELINT intercepts would be constantly attacking his military communication platforms.

So he went old school.

Encrypted notes, on paper, delivered by motorcycle couriers. Coded messages broadcast from minarets and mosques to coordinate actions. Lighting signals on airfields to enable take offs and landings without the need for communications between aircraft and ground crews. His Air Force went dark; no radio communications for his enemy to exploit and Find, Fix, and Finish.

When Blue Forces took out his nation’s microwave towers and fibre optics, it didn’t impede Van Riper’s ability to direct his forces. His old school methodology ensured command and control still functioned. But Van Riper was also well aware that, should the might of the Blue Forces arrive near or on his shores, things would change significantly. And this is where his experience as a field commander during combat tours came into its own. He recognised that there would be a geographical point where the carrier group would commit to a point of no return. A threshold which meant they had committed to engaging in war. Van Riper identified this point and prepared, without any digital or radio communications to betray his plan.

Then he struck.

He used missiles launched from commercial boats. Wave after wave of land-based missiles to overwhelm defences and leave openings for his Air Force to strafe with their missiles. Boats laden with explosives driven directly into the hulls of the Blue Force ships. In a 10-minute attack he’d wiped out 19 ships and killed around 20,000 US service personnel.

This was not in the script.

The Pentagon and Norfolk Command went into meltdown mode. Recriminations for who was culpable for such a defeat soon morphed into a blame game but not for the commanders responsible for the defeat. Nope, a far more convenient scapegoat was soon identified and nominated as responsible for the failure of the Blue Forces to win the war game.

Lt Gen Paul Van Riper.

The narrative the Pentagon began to spin was that, in the real world, tactics such as Van Riper’s would never be used. He hadn’t played fair. No Middle Eastern adversary could possibly put together such a strategic defence against a technologically advanced opponent using mere analogue tactics.

Van Riper raised an eyebrow and pointed out that an exact tactic he used was taken from the suicide attack against The USS Cole in Yemen in the year 2000.

As a veteran of multiple combat tours of Vietnam, he reminded The Pentagon that an army of small men and women on bicycles had constructed one of the world’s most incredible feats of military supply logistics: the Ho Chi Minh Trail. A supply line that navigated the jungles of 3 countries and stubbornly resisted the heaviest bombings the world had seen to that point. That the might of the Soviet Union, with all its armour, helicopters, and manpower was defeated by the ‘analogue’ tactics of the mujahideen.

But his examples were falling on deaf ears.

The exercise was put on hold then ‘refreshed’. A start over. The Staff Officers, in probably one of the most brazen examples of in-group bias ever seen, assured each other that the failure of the exercise lay in Van Riper, not them. Therefore, better to replace Van Riper with someone more suitable. Thank Van Riper for his assistance and send him on his way.

Van Riper wasn’t happy.

As an experienced field commander, he knew all too well the inherent dangers in Command ignoring vital lessons from the battlefield. He argued that The Pentagon was essentially prioritising saving face over learning from mistakes. When he saw that the exercise was now scripted to enable the Blue Forces to win, Van Riper walked away. Putting his thoughts to paper, he wrote a detailed, 21-page After Action Report (AAR) where he highlighted how vulnerable the US Military was to low tech warfare.

An important document, one might think, particularly when America went on to invade Iraq only a year later. An opportunity perhaps, for the military command to read a very pertinent AAR that could provide important lessons to bear in mind when attacking a hostile, Middle Eastern nation with natural resources critical to global trade and commerce. Alas, this was not the case.

The AAR was classified and buried for over 20 years.

A detailed report from a decorated Marine General pointing out US Military vulnerabilities against Iran, was, to all intents and purposes, buried.

It’s this act which I believe completely validates Van Riper’s assertion of The Pentagon prioritising saving face over operational lessons. If, as The Pentagon claimed, Van Riper had conducted an unrealistic campaign which added no value to the exercise, why hide the AAR? For 20 years? I think it’s pretty clear that while the public-facing message was such, privately The Pentagon couldn’t allow such a damning indictment of US military vulnerabilities to come to light.

In the past few days, Donald Trump has come under increasing pressure to explain how his administration could possibly not have considered Iran’s responses to the US/Israel attacks. His defence is to claim surprise. That he hadn’t been made aware Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz. That his administration was both shocked and taken aback when Iran attacked US allies’ energy infrastructure in the region. That he was surprised Iran was still fighting.

He shouldn’t be.

A report from a decorated Marine Officer, written 24 years ago after a war gaming scenario playing out a US/Iran conflict, would have told him everything he needed to know.

If it hadn’t been hidden.

Two men walk into a Special Ops base and steal some drones . . .Unfortunately, that’s not a joke

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On March 16, 2026

In Terrorism and Counter Terrorism, Topical

In November 2025, a major US military base, Fort Campbell in Kentucky, reported some missing equipment. Not as you might imagine, some uniforms, tools, fuel, or even a pistol. You know, stuff you could quickly snatch and stash out of sight until you smuggled it off base. Nope, on this occasion, the 101st Airborne’s Air Assault contingent noticed that their complement of surveillance drones was looking a little . . . light. Light to the tune of 4 missing drones.

Four. Missing. Drones.

From a secure military base. And not just a secure military base, but one that is the home of military special operations aviation. It hosts the headquarters and 1st/2nd Battalions of the elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, known as the “Night Stalkers,” along with the Special Operations Aviation Training Battalion (SOATB). These are serious units who work with the most sensitive and up to date military technology on the planet. And yet four specialist surveillance drones were stolen and their absence not noticed for some time.

The drones were Skydio X10D systems, lightweight quadcopters designed for aerial surveillance and reconnaissance. Equipped with AI technology that enables operational autonomy and the ability to link to 5G mobile networks for connectivity continuity. They come in at around $30k a piece, so $120k of military technology stolen from a secure, special operations base.

But how?

The US Army’s official statement said that ‘. . . the two individuals had access to the military installation and the building, and “defeated the locks” on the storage cages.’ That information indicates that this was a targeted, rather than opportunistic crime.

The Army released CCTV images of the perpetrators as well as a reward of $5k for any information leading to the capture of the individuals and the recovery of the drones.

At any other time, this theft would probably not have made the headlines that it has, and indeed, this event occurred in Nov 2025 but didn’t really come to public attention until very recently. But another turn of events ensured that this theft of military drones was very much kept in the public eye.

Last week, an internal memo sent to agencies that are part of a federal Joint Terrorism Task Force was made public. The memo stated “We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran.” The media began contacting its sources within Federal and State governments and the story went mainstream.

What mattered here was that the original intelligence, believed to have emanated from The Coast Guard, was not verified. In intelligence circles this means that the information came from a single source, be that human or technical, but that no other corroborating information could be found to support it or verify the original intelligence. But the warning would have been issued as a matter of course, allowing agencies and organisations to respond in accordance with their counter-terrorism policies and procedures. When The White House was questioned on the memo, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt raged that the media had blown the entire incident out of proportion and demanded they retract the stories from their publications. When asked if it wasn’t in the public’s interest to be made aware of such threats, she doubled down on her stance, stating that the press were publishing ‘false information to intentionally alarm the American people.’

The problem here is that both the press and the public are only too aware of how dishonest and disingenuous this White House administration is with its information. Which means even if this drone threat memo was just a standard ‘hey, we heard this, not sure there’s anything to it but just so you’re aware’ type of thing, the default is to believe the opposite of whatever narrative the government is standing by. And that’s where the real problems begin.

On the first day of America/Israel’s war with Iran, a mysterious broadcast was picked up by radio hams around the globe. Serious radio hams. The types dedicated to an analogue slice of nostalgia rapidly disappearing from the modern world. What they heard and found in this mysterious, new broadcast initially baffled then alarmed. The signal has been heard across Europe and rebroadcast to other parts of the world, with consistent evening activity and short voice messages consisting of structured numeric sequences. A man’s voice can be heard speaking Farsi, counting out a series of apparently random numbers. The numbers are read out for varying stretches of time, followed by a pause in which the word tavajjoh, which translates as ‘attention’, is spoken three times

In old money in the intelligence world this was referred to as a Numbers Station. And the main role of a Numbers Station was for intelligence agencies and organisations to contact their agents in the field via a one-way transmission. The agent, knowing the designated frequencies and times to check, would have a secure method of decrypting the stream of numbers being transmitted. Translating them into formal orders and directives.

The beauty of an old-school Numbers Station in a digital age is that it provides direction and guidance to an agent who may be operating in an environment where any outbound communication is intercepted. That leads directly to the main question of who, today, would most require this ancient mode of communication?

Sleeper cells.

Hostile operatives embedded in their adversaries countries. Operatives who know any communication between them and those directing them have a high threat of being surveilled. The training in and use of an analogue mode of communication also builds in resilience in that, should the operatives’ home country be attacked and lose digital communication infrastructure, directions could still be securely passed over shortwave radio. A Numbers Station.

So, we have a transmission that begins on the first day of the America/Israeli war in Iran. It’s broadcast in Farsi. It appears to emanate from somewhere in Central Europe.

And it’s constantly being jammed.

Iran, Israel, and the United States all have the technical ability to carry out this jamming. So that begs the question, who is doing the transmitting and who is doing the jamming? The jamming is being carried out by someone who wants to make sure the recipient of the transmissions doesn’t get them.

In the USA, a recent statement from ABC News on March 9 reported that the US government had sent an alert to law enforcement agencies regarding ‘intercepted encrypted communications.’ While the report did not specify what exactly the transmission was, or whether it was a numbers station signal, it stated ‘While the exact contents of these transmissions cannot currently be determined, the sudden appearance of a new station with international rebroadcast characteristics warrants heightened situational awareness.’

We know there are Iranian sleeper cells in the USA. There have been official declarations as such from government officials including the President himself. And in recent days there seem to be more officials openly stating that the Numbers Station signal is an operational trigger for activating Iranian sleeper cells abroad. When coupled with drone thefts from a military special ops base, drone threats to the American mainland, and an analogue spy tradecraft brought out of retirement, well, as the Americans are fond of saying, ‘you do the math.’

Or in this case, The Numbers.

Russian Roulette

By

On March 11, 2026

In Military Matters, Terrorism and Counter Terrorism, Topical

Trump asks Putin to help him get out of Iran

In the past two days, the Trump administration has descended into panic mode over the effects of the war in Iran. The indicators?

Major mixed messaging from the President himself: ‘The war is very complete . . . we’ve still got a lot to do . . . we’ve already won but want to keep on winning . . . Iran better not mine the Strait of Hormuz or they’ll be sorry . . . American Navy will provide escorts for tankers to transit the Strait . . . Tanker captains need to grow a set and drive through the Strait . . . Iran bombed the girl’s school . . . I don’t have enough information to confirm the USA bombed the school . . .etc, etc, etc
The not ruling out of boots on the ground with even a brief discussion of re-invoking The Draft, the compulsory conscription of the public into military service. The second this hit the airwaves, instant denials followed with watery explanations of ‘ . . . this was an informal comment made in a personal context . . .’
The start of individuals being thrown under the bus for the Iran debacle: Pete Hegseth highlighting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as the negotiators who convinced The White House that Iran had no interest in curtailing their nuclear weapons program. Despite the Omani mediators stating talks were proceeding very well. The term highlighting here really means publicly announcing the pair as being responsible for America’s decision to attack Iran.
Trump’s call to Israel requesting they stop bombing critical Iranian oil infrastructure. Not because of the toxic rain now falling over Tehran and other cities but because, when the missiles stop flying, Trump wants to negotiate an oil deal with Iran. Because even if the war stops today, oil prices will never recover to previous levels for years.
The American public’s rage over climbing gas (petrol) prices. You can hide bad employment stats and spiralling national debt but everybody sees for themselves, exactly how much the bombing of a country half a world away is costing them when they fill up their tank. And then there’s the public anger over Trump’s attitude over prices: ‘Well, you know, they’re going to go high for a short period . . .’
Trump’s loosening of sanctions on Russian oil trading, hoping to ease some of the pressure on the widening chasm between supply and demand. Unfortunately, this hasn’t even scratched the surface of the problem.
The White House approaching President ‘you don’t have the cards’ Zelensky and requesting immediate help in counter drone warfare.
Trump has a one hour call with President Putin of Russia and asks him if there’s anything he can do to convince Iran to stop fighting.

Once again, when the going gets tough and Trump finds himself in a bind, he calls Putin. I’m not going to enter into the debate as to whether Trump is an active asset of Russia’s because, at the end of the day, his actual status in this regard really doesn’t matter. Formally recruited Asset or useful idiot, the nomenclature matters not. Everything Trump does benefits Russia, or, more accurately, Putin. Even now, Russia needs a resumption of the mass deliveries of Iranian Shahed drones that it swarms Ukraine with. And Trump needs an off-ramp to get the hell out of the quagmire America has been dragged into.

So he speaks to Putin.

Putin who has been providing Iran with intelligence on the location of American military assets in the region. Targeting information. The intelligence needed to kill Americans. When this news broke, the Pentagon blustered something along the lines of ‘well, we don’t know anything about that.’ As if that wasn’t shocking enough, consider Steve Witkoff’s response to being confronted on how he, America’s representative to Russia, is dealing with this vile act:

‘The Russians say they have not been sharing intelligence with Iran.’ Okay Steve, what evidence did they provide to convince you of this? ‘We can take them at their word.’ Oh, cool, as long as we’re treating this as the serious attack on American service men and women that it is. Incidentally, just on the off chance the unimpeachable, honest-as-the-day-is-long Putin is fibbing and has been providing this intelligence, what’s Trump’s plan for addressing this? ‘Let’s hope that they’re not sharing.’

Brilliant. Literally could be a General Melchett dialogue from the comedy classic Blackadder Goes Forth. Except this isn’t funny. Russia assisting in finding US targets for Iran and the Trump administration’s response is to, well, sweep it aside in the interest of walking away from the conflict they started as soon as they can. At least 7 American service personnel dead and 140 wounded, some of these through Russian provided targeting to Iran. If I had a son or daughter in the US military just now I’d be absolutely raging.

Putin has, in a masterstroke, manoeuvred himself into the position of peace broker for the most volatile war on the planet. And with massive gains for himself. Sanctions lifted allowing Russian oil to flow to market. Ukraine tied into the Iran deal to ensure Putin gets exactly what he wants to finish his special military operation. Incredible, isn’t it? The White House begs Ukraine for help in countering Iranian drone attacks while their President agrees to agree to Russian demands in Ukraine if Putin helps get them out of Iran. Like I said, a masterstroke. Putin keeps the war going by assisting Iran with targeting until he can present himself as the only viable powerbroker that can get Trump out of his mess. And what a mess it has become.

18 countries are now involved in this conflict. 18. And that’s not even counting the countries where US embassies or consulates have suffered attacks or acts of sabotage.

Speaking of which, the American public just learned that an Iranian-issued fatwa, directing Shia muslims to attack any American or Israeli targets anywhere they found them, was withheld from the public at the direction of the Trump administration. Not released to FBI or Homeland Security to enable them to escalate defensive postures and prepare responses. When Trump was confronted with this fact, he played it down in typical Trump fashion, ‘well, you know, there’s always these threats and they’re kind of always around . . .’

This is a fatwa. An official decree sanctioned by the religious leaders of the Shia faith in Iran. Calling on all Shia muslims, around 200 million worldwide, to attack American and Israeli interests wherever they find them, in any way they can.

This is very different from a standard extant terrorism threat.

This Iran conflict started during Ramadan, the fasting period observed by muslims worldwide and one of the five key pillars of the religion of Islam. Muslims of all factions were enraged by this and, when a religious figurehead was assassinated in the early stages of the conflict, this anger increased. Unfortunately, this timing and target selection gives the Iranian regime the power to exploit muslim anger worldwide and mobilise a giant network of anti-American/Israeli operatives. When many of these attacks will be lone-wolf or opportunistic, defending against them becomes very difficult as we have experienced ourselves in dealing with islamist terrorist attacks in the UK.

And, if indeed any more petrol were needed to be added to the spectacular fire it has become, The Secretary of Defense/War, Pete Hegseth quoted a bible verse at a press briefing on the Iran war. Coupled with the statements American armed forces personnel have been reporting about their chain of command telling them that this is a religious war and that Trump has been anointed by Jesus and is therefore fighting as mankind’s saviour, this just plays into Iran’s hands. They can point to this and frame America’s attack as a formal christian crusade aimed at exterminating muslims. Another weapon with which to motivate any Shia muslim considering committing to the fatwa.

    And today, Iran began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. While, to many, this probably doesn’t come as a particular surprise, the action isn’t the point. It’s the intent. A nation thinking about surrendering doesn’t lay sea mines to close shipping lanes. A nation does that when it’s planning to dig in, hold the line. Iran knows the pressure Donald Trump is under and in another statement today, designated US and Israeli economic interests as legitimate targets. And oil is the economic Achilles Heel that is driving Trump to desperation.

    So, Putin is the new powerbroker. And Trump desperately needs him now. But Iran isn’t acting like someone who’s thinking about negotiating. They’re acting like they’ve got a choice. Like they can make decisions about the war for themselves.

    Like they’re holding the cards.

    Trump got his war

    By

    On March 2, 2026

    In Military Matters, Topical

    (I was a day late with my prediction)

    Flames and smoke after a missile strike in central Tehran

    America and Israel have begun their military operation against Iran. In my article War in a week?, I was confident that the US would strike Iran within a week of posting.

    I was a day off.

    As I write this response, it seems there is a division of labour carved up between the USA and Israel where the Israelis are targeting and killing Iranian leadership personalities while the US goes after military targets and supporting infrastructure. The Iranian regime has confirmed that their ‘supreme leader’, the Ayatollah Khameini, was killed during one of the first strikes.

    Iran’s response has been to fire off missile salvos and drone attacks to what it considers legitimate targets. Israel, obviously. But also regional countries it views as supporting American interests. Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan. Unconfirmed reports of two missiles intercepted as they approached Cyprus then a Shahed drone hitting Akrotiri Air Base. The bulk of these attacks were intercepted and neutralised but some still made it through although casualties and deaths are minimal. This response and the targets would have been anticipated during the wargaming of this operation. Air defences would have been beefed up and augmented in readiness. An oil tanker was struck off the coast and is currently on fire and, probably the most impactful element on the West so far, The Strait of Hormuz is closed.

    Why will this closure impact not just the West, but the rest of the world?

    Over 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil transits this waterway. A third of the world’s most essential energy product relies on this small stretch of water to transport the crude across the globe. And around 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) also moves through this narrow strait. So what happens when it closes?

    2025 graphic highlighting data. Credit: Getty Images

    Tankers have to turn around, get the hell out of the area. Insurers such as Lloyds of London refuse to cover any craft moving through the area against the risk of destruction or confiscation. Oil and LNG prices spike, first as a knee jerk then, if the situation doesn’t calm down quickly, climb at an astronomical rate. Which affects, well, pretty much everybody. Today, Iran began dedicated targeting of energy sites in the oil producing countries. Already, the world’s largest LNG producer, Qatar Energy, halted production after Iranian attacks, followed closely by Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery.

    As of this morning, Day 3 of the war, oil prices already spiked 10% and natural gas in Europe spiked an eye-watering 50%.

    Consider Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. UK energy costs for consumers became 30% higher almost overnight. That’s a lot more money to find at the end of every month. And that’s when only 2 countries affected the global market. This latest crisis literally pulls in the world’s major oil and gas producers and exporters who rely on political and economic stability to guarantee access to markets and unrestricted travel routes. With the war on Iran now in full swing, they have neither.

    The Americans could alleviate some of these issues by providing safe escort for vessels, keeping The Strait open and the ships safe from attack or sabotage. But that means consigning American troops and hardware to a long term operation, exposing them as targets to whatever is left of the Iranian regime. I personally don’t think Donald Trump or his Party want this. He wants a clean decapitation of the regime, no more threats of nuclear weapons, and his troops to return to the US.

    Which would be nice.

    Unfortunately, this is a region where asymmetric warfare abounds and even the might of the US military can run into real problems. Look at the Houthi rebels operating out of Yemen. By summer 2025 this group of 20,000 fighters had destroyed at least 7 American Reaper drones, which cost around $30 million apiece. And although it’s being kept on the QT at the moment, the Americans lost a more advanced drone near Iran only two weeks ago. Lost as in they have no idea what happened to it. Not crashed or shot down, but lost. And this morning we know there have been at least 4 American service personnel killed and 3 fighter jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait.

    F-15 Fighter Jet crashing in Kuwait

    Shia muslims around the world have been protesting the killing of the Ayatollah. In Nigeria, the protests were decidedly anti-American with US and Israeli flags being burned or dragged along the ground. One of Iran’s main proxy forces, Hezbollah, has been trading blows with Israel in Lebanon with dozens killed and thousands fleeing. Shia militias in Iraq are targeting anything remotely connected to American interests. 10 dead pro-Iran protestors were killed at the US Consulate in Pakistan.

    American Consulate, Karachi. Credit: AP

    So the conflict has not been contained to the Iranian hinterland, but this is something that every Middle Eastern country warned America would happen. Almost 10 countries have now been dragged into the conflict, escalating it to a truly regional war. Qatar has had to send up fighter jets to shoot down Iranian drones as their Air Defences were not sufficiently capable. So we now have a third country’s jets in the sky and probably more to follow. And let’s face it, a lot of these countries might just be pissed off enough to look at America’s hammering of Iran to think ‘You know what? Might be nice to jump on the pile-on while it’s available.’ It’s a very short operational leap from flying defence to assisting in offensive sorties over Iran.

    One of the main problems in assessing likely outcomes in this war is that there is no clearly defined goal or endgame. Trump shoe-shuffles between no nukes and regime change depending on what day of the week he’s on camera. The Pentagon had to go on record today admitting that there was no intelligence indicating Iran was a direct threat to the USA.

    The killing of Khameini will have limited impact as he was elderly and in ill health so already had a succession plan in place. I know America is hoping for the Iranian population to rise up against the government and push for a regime change more aligned to Western interests and values. Unfortunately, recent history shows us that this never succeeds. Gadafi killed, Libya descends into violent chaos. Saddam Hussein killed, Iraq descends into violent chaos. Taliban leadership defeated, Afghanistan descends into violent chaos. Israel has decades-long history of assassinating Hamas and Hezbollah leaders yet those organisations continued to wage terror with malign effectiveness.

    America and its allies are also concerned about Iranian sleeper cells after a very open threat from the Iranian regime as the build up to the war was occurring. Contrary to public belief, Iranian intelligence officers don’t enter the US via the southern border. Particularly in this past year where immediate deportation is pretty much the standard. Iran’s Quds Force use high quality, forged passports and individuals from third party nations to infiltrate target countries through legitimate channels. They also recruit and fund local criminals to carry out activities on their behalf.

    Cover of my novel ‘Asset Seven’

    In my novel Asset Seven, one of the sub plots revolves around a Quds Force operation to get a dirty bomb detonated on American soil. The methods and tactics described in the story were drawn from real world events and close calls and my knowledge of Quds Force and their capabilities. The use of proximity countries for support and spring boarding of operations, and the exploitation of established criminal networks are all tried and trusted methods the Quds Force employs during its foreign operations. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine that the Iranian regime has already planned and prepared groups for internal attacks against America as well as its overseas interests.

    Donald Trump has put a timeframe of a month on this war. And I think his, and his party’s political future really hang in the balance here. This is the first time America has gone to war when the public opposed it. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc all had public support for the initial interventions. Iran does not. Trump also campaigned on a ticket of ‘No more foreign wars’, something his MAGA base felt strongly about and are angry with his about-turn. In two months he’s attacked two countries. Venezuela was explained away as, well, not really a war so it doesn’t count. Iran, however, is the very definition of a foreign war. The Pentagon and The White House are claiming that what the President actually meant when he was campaigning was ‘no more dumb foreign wars’. I guess the term ‘dumb’ is being left open for interpretation . . .

    Difficult to predict what’s going to happen with any certainty. America and Israel will win, but what that win will look like is anybody’s guess. The longer the conflict drags on, the more likelihood there is of Trump accepting even a small agreement from Iran that he can frame as victory and pull his armed forces out of the region. He will do this to protect his political future and won’t give a damn whether it suits Israel or not or whether Iran is as degraded as he demanded or not. In this case, Israel could well be left to face a wounded, raging Iran on its own. Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani has already warned that his country has “prepared itself for a long war”.

    Be prepared for a very fast media cycle on this one as events continue to unfold. America is actually sending more troops and assets to the region so that alone tells you they want this wrapped up fast.

    The cornered Bear

    By

    On February 26, 2026

    In Military Matters, Topical

    How the war in Ukraine just turned really bad for Russia

    It should have taken 3 days.

    3 days for the self-proclaimed strongest military in the world to roll into a country it had already invaded and occupied areas within only 8 years before. The armoured vehicles even carrying victory paraphernalia such as flags and banners ready to display in the captured nation’s capital, Kyiv.

    Except it didn’t work out that way.

    It’s the 4-year ‘anniversary’ of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine. 4 years. That’s 4 years of constant war and attrition, particularly on the civilian population of Ukraine. When Russia began to realise that it was not going to win militarily, the targeting of energy infrastructure and civilian population zones began. An attempt to degrade Ukraine’s living conditions and force their government to concede defeat.

    Except it didn’t work out that way.

    The Ukrainians were far more resilient than most, even in the West, gave them credit for. Not only that, but they began to fight fire with fire, striking Russian refineries and gas installations deep inside Russia. This caused instant economic hurt for Russia which, as a petrostate reliant on exports of its petrochemicals, it cannot endure for even the shortest period of time. With 2026 planned and budgeted on an anticipated price for Russian oil that has now dropped, The Kremlin knows it is in deep trouble. It has already raided the social security budget to help offset the cost of the war but that’s a one trick pony; the money has gone and not been replaced. For the first time in recent history, both banks and business leaders in Russia are starting to speak openly about a financial catastrophe that is already underway. When you consider that openly criticising the government usually leads to a short trip out of a ten storey window, things must be very serious for these people to risk their statements.

    The Kremlin has also ceased bonus payments to its soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The one incentive which motivated young men from rural provinces to volunteer for the chance of a small sum of money with which to help their families. Worse than that however, and a more telling sign of the economic pain it is suffering, Russia has also stopped the death benefit paid to families and partners of the soldiers who died fighting in Ukraine.

    Russian women demanding the return of their sons from fighting in Ukraine. Getty Images

    The impact of this was immediate and a public relations headache for the government. Widows and mothers posting on social media about the government’s betrayal. Public marches covered by independent bloggers and state media highlighting the scale of the problem. The Kremlin responded by issuing a directive to military commanders that families were no longer to be notified, that bodies could be left in situ rather than being recovered for burial. That mass casualty events should be cleaned up before they could be filmed and the dead Russian soldiers buried in a mass grave.

    CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, assesses Russian battlefield casualties in Ukraine to be around 1.2 million. This also has a massive impact on The Kremlin’s war machine. The meat grinder of Ukraine requires constant feeding and Russia is running out of soldiers with fewer mobilisations occurring and fewer troops available. To counter this, they have come up with some rather . . . creative solutions.

    Indian press-ganged men in Ukraine

    Last year, a large group of men from India departed for Belarus after responding to a recruitment advert seeking individuals interested in becoming plumbers, electricians, and engineers. The recruitment company in Delhi arranged all the visas, paperwork, and transport for the hundreds of men who replied to the advertisements on social media. Some of the men found it odd that, on reaching the stopover in Russia, their passports and mobile phones were taken but accepted the ‘security protocol’ explanation given by their Russian hosts. That explanation was soon exposed as the lie it was when the men were driven to a military installation, processed into the army, beaten and abused, given a short training course and told they were being sent to fight in Ukraine. And if they refused or tried to run away, they would be shot by their officers as deserters.

    The men’s experiences of the front line paint a brutal picture of an army already in decline and snowballing downhill really fast. Command and control enforced by threat of execution. Troops forced at gunpoint to run at heavily defended Ukrainian positions. Constantly hunted and killed by drones. Commanders selling postings to the rear for money. Medical documents which ensured a departure from the war sold for cash by officers. Suicides, mental breakdowns, rife use of narcotics, torture. Several of the Indian returnees broke down when talking about their fellow men being raped by Russian soldiers at the front.

    But their experiences, incredibly, are in no way unique.

    African civilians fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

    Russia’s presence in African countries has provided it with access to large populations of disaffected individuals on the very lowest rung of the socioeconomic ladder. Young men easily duped into scams similar to that of the Indian men. A chance at a better future, qualifications, prospects, money to help your family. Young African men from over 30 different countries duped or scammed into fighting for Russia in a war they know nothing about. The stories which the survivors tell echo and support those which the Indian men relayed. The Africans tell of endemic racism, being openly referred to and deployed as cannon fodder, forced to charge the Ukrainian lines and exhaust the troops before Russian soldiers attacked. Kenyans, Ugandans, South Africans, dying in their hundreds in tactics more reminiscent of the First World War than a modern day conflict.

    Captured North Korean soldiers in Ukraine

    President Putin of Russia also sealed a deal whereby Russia supplied North Korea with military technical assistance in return for thousands of ground troops to deploy against Ukraine. These foreign fighters too, talked of confusion, brutality, broken logistic chains, lack of resupply.

    Cuban recruits with Russian military. Credit – Herrera family

    And to add to the international flavour of Russia’s ‘special military operation’, let’s not forget the thousands of Cubans fighting on the front lines. Again, mostly poor young men escaping poverty by answering employment adverts, another pipeline of cannon fodder for The Kremlin to throw at Ukrainian defences. In an interesting development, Cuba’s Foreign Minister confirmed that Russia will be sending oil and other petroleum products to the island nation in the guise of ‘humanitarian aid’. As Cuba imported around 60% of its oil from Venezuela, it has almost run dry since the USA attacked Venezuela and cut off the supply to Cuba. I don’t think there’s much doubt that in return for his magnanimous gesture, Putin will request a formal agreement for troops to be provided to assist Russia.

    Ukrainian soldier with Starlink apparatus. Credit – Reuters

    So far, I’ve mentioned the Russian economy and the struggle for manpower as being 2 key factors in why the pressure is ramping up fast. But there’s a third, very recent development that is accelerating the pressure in real time. Starlink, the mobile internet developed by Elon Musk, has been the main platform for Russian communications and command, including drone coordination and deployment. When Ukraine and Europe rightly asked why a businessman with US government contracts was profiting from large scale attacks against civilians, Musk was shamed into shutting down the illicit terminals being used by the Russian military. While Both Ukraine and Russia’s military have been using and relying heavily on the platform, Ukraine has officially registered Starlink terminals whereas Russia has sourced theirs through third-party providers to evade sanctions.

    The impact was instant.

    All Russian battlefield communications were affected. As one Russian officer explained ‘ . . . it was as though someone had turned off a switch across our whole military.’ So, if things were fraught and confusing before, they just got a whole lot worse. But not to worry, the soldiers could always return to their use of Telegram, the messaging App beloved and utilised for both personal and official use.

    Except they couldn’t.

    The Kremlin, in an attempt to silence the bad news coming from the Ukraine frontlines and the affected families at home, had shut down the App without warning. So now the Russian military fighting in Ukraine are literally resorting to speaking over captured radios which of course, are intercepted and used as targeting lock-ons for Ukrainian drone, jet, and artillery strikes. Russians have been shelling each other’s positions as confusion and panic abound. Resupply and logistic support has all but ceased due to Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine has recaptured over 400 Square kilometres in under two weeks, its biggest gain in two and a half years.

    The problem for Russia is that they have no replacement for Starlink. No redundancy was built in as a failsafe or even a backup. So, for the time being at least, they are like a boxer in the ring whose eyes have been swollen shut, waiting to take the blows before they can lash out wildly in the direction they think they came.

    So, massive economic pressures that are starting to become public knowledge. Returning soldiers and their families telling the hard truths all over social media. Troop shortages that are being plugged by scams and press-gang tactics to pull in conscripts from abroad. Operational communications blackout showing immediate effect and losses for Russia. There’s very few administrations on the planet that could hold it together with all these factors smashing them at once, let alone a dictatorship ruled by one ageing individual.

    And, not that you need it after reading this, but if you wanted any further confirmation that Russia is seriously on the back foot after these recent developments, have a look at this.

    Air Defence positions covering Putin’s Valdai residence

    The green marker is Vladimir Putin’s lakeside Valdai residence. The red markers are Air Defence (AD) positions sited to cover and protect the residence from Ukrainian drone, missile, or jet attacks. The yellow marker is the S-400 Triumf, Russia’s advanced mobile long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, designed to detect and destroy aircraft, drones, and missiles up to 400 km away. In 2023/2024 there were only 2 AD systems in this area. So, a massive increase to say the least.

    And the more worrying aspect of this for Russia?

    Ukraine’s Flamingo missiles, in the last week, have struck Russian military targets as far as 1400km inside Russia. Defeating Russian air defences. So, Putin may believe he has a ring of steel around his lakeside residence, but these recent strikes show that Ukrainian missiles are capable of beating those air defence systems.

    What’s also noticeable is Russia’s latest stance on the ‘peace’ talks in Geneva involving Russia, the USA, and Ukraine. Demands of totality. No grey areas. Different personalities now representing the Kremlin at the talks. Putin cannot walk away from Ukraine without anything resembling a win. To do so seals his own political and, as this is Russia we’re talking about, probably physical, fate. His country is broke, his people disaffected, the oligarchs he previously controlled now plot against him because they are losing money. The deal Putin struck with the oligarchs was always one where as long as they pledged allegiance to him, he would allow them to make money in whatever manner they wanted.

    But they’re no longer making that kind of money.

    The deal no longer works for them and they’re starting to look at what might come next. Or rather, who might come next. Because they need that person to be one of them, or at least, one who looks after them.

    Many people who read my articles and books regularly ask why the current American administration supports Russia so much. A country representing an ideology that Americans have sent their sons and daughters to fight against since the end of World War 2. Even given Trump’s transactional nature, they can’t understand why the USA suddenly switched it’s support to a country with an economy the size of Italy’s. Russia has openly promised the USA riches of 12 Trillion Dollars. As that’s 6 times the size of Russia’s entire economy, I’m smelling a slight exaggeration here. And its the usual trifecta of access to giant oil deposits, rare earth minerals in the arctic, and access to 145 million consumers.

    Except . . .

    The oil deposits are old and pretty depleted, the minerals are not definitive in terms of quantity, quality or even viability to be accessed, and as for 145 million consumers? The vast majority of Russians are poor. Really poor. So, expensive American exports are not something with which to build a future economic prediction upon. For America as a nation, I don’t see much upside. For Russia, however, any foreign investment and trade will be welcomed with open arms.

    But . . .

    Even amongst Republicans in Congress and The Senate, there are some serious dissenters over President Trump’s determination for Russia to succeed in its war on Ukraine. Formerly quiet voices are now openly questioning why their Administration is giving clear support to Russia while practically ordering Ukraine to surrender and accede to all Russian demands. As Trump’s physical and political health declines, these voices are growing in number and volume. So, any trade agreements or deals struck in the near future might become null and void a lot sooner than Russia would like.

    With Russia being the authoritarian state that it is, no independent media reporting of note exists. The state running the media as a propaganda arm of the government. So it is rare when political dissent from state representatives is covered in any depth or even reported at all. In December, Grigory Yeremeev, a politician from the Volga region of Russia, delivered a speech in Parliament where he demanded an end to the war in Ukraine and openly stated that it was a direct failure for Putin and his regime. Despite being screamed and shouted at by Putin’s acolytes and arse kissers, he concluded his speech laying the failure of the war and the destruction of the Russian economy at the feet of Vladimir Putin. This week, Yeremeev was charged with the standard ‘discrediting the Army’ for his temerity in daring to make public the true state of Russia as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.

    In another crackdown on free speech and communications, the Kremlin has also shut down WhatsApp as people were turning to this as an alternative to Telegram which had been shut down earlier. Informed sources, however, believe that the WhatsApp denial is aimed at curbing gatherings and protests that have been steadily growing over the past few months.

    Russian National Guard – Rosvgardia

    A recent action which supports this theory is the sweeping powers that Putin has granted the Russian National Guard, The Rosvgardia. Formerly a state security force which responded to internal threats to the regime, Rosvgardia is now a major paramilitary force in its own right. It now has its own organic heavy weapons, armoured tanks and vehicles, special forces, intelligence, and immediate combat readiness and is deployed at the order and direction of the president. Putin’s own private army more or less. This month, Rosvgardia was given another set of sweeping powers with which to ‘protect the nation’. Powers that resemble the regime cracking down hard on anything that even smells like dissent against the state narrative. Another sign that all is not well from behind the rusting sheets of what’s left of the Iron Curtain.

    Short of tactical nuclear weapons, Putin has thrown everything he has at Ukraine and continues to fail. He has bankrupted his country, repressed its citizens and their free speech, and convinced the US President to back him in winning his war. The only problem with that is he is doing the opposite of winning. Putin is losing. Regularly.

    As the title of this article alludes to, the Russian Bear is cornered at the moment. Pressure from three different elements combining to stress test Putin’s command and control. And a cornered Bear is the most dangerous. With nothing to lose, there’s no telling what the world’s foremost dictator will do to hold on to power and continue with his quest to recreate the USSR.

    War in a week?

    By

    On February 20, 2026

    In Military Matters, Topical

    The biggest military deployment since 2003 is happening now

    War in a week?

    That’s not conjecture or hyperbole. As of today, it’s a very real possibility. Since the bombing of Iranian targets last year, the USA has been engaging with Iran on a two-pronged front. Diplomatic negotiations between White House representatives and those from the Iranian regime, and a steady build up of force in the region to display physical consequences if agreements are not reached.

    I, like many others, assumed the situation had reached an impasse when Donald Trump stated that because the Iranians didn’t concede to his demands he was imposing tariffs. That’s right, tariffs. A meaningless measure against a country hardened and accustomed to enduring and evading international sanctions. Trump had obviously become bored with the political stalemate and wanted to move on, bigger fish to fry and all that.

    But Israel wasn’t happy.

    Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington at very short notice bringing with him not the diplomats and negotiators one would expect on such a visit but his hawks. The key military figures who are keying up Israel’s next strike against Iran. A strike that needed simultaneous US action to maximise its effectiveness. Trump bored and moving on from the Iran issue was not something Netanyahu wanted to see. After this meeting, the build up of American military troops and hardware to the region intensified in a big way.

    But is it all just a bluff? Sabre-rattling to convince Iran that the US will wield the stick if the carrot fails?

    No. Unfortunately, it’s not.

    These are the movements of in-flight refuelling tankers from 2 days ago. You don’t send these aircraft as part of a bluff. There’s no point to it. They’re the logistics chain. You send them when you know you’re going to have thirsty aircraft needing to refuel after bombing or attack runs. These are among the last types of aircraft that the USA has been quietly stacking around bases in the Middle East.

    Here’s some who got there before:

    American attack aircraft, Jordan (Planet Labs)
    American Electronic Warfare aircraft, Jordan. (Planet Labs)
    Recently arrived MQ9-Reaper Drones, Jordan. (Planet Labs)
    Two P-8 Poseidon surveillance planes, two MC-130J special forces planes and three KC-135 Stratotankers, Diego Garcia. (Planet Labs)

    Another pointer that strengthens the conclusion of physical confrontation? The deployment of Combat Search And Rescue (CSAR) personnel and aircraft. Again, you don’t send these assets to a contested region unless you’re anticipating the possibility of downed pilots.

    U.S. Air Force CSAR HC-130J Combat King II. (Credit – U.S. Air Force)

    The aircraft above is a HC-130J Combat King II, a specialized beast which supports CSAR missions in hostile environments. It is equipped for long-range operations, night missions, and aerial refueling of rescue helicopters. The aircraft can refuel two HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopters simultaneously, allowing rescue crews to operate deep inside contested airspace. Two of these aircraft and their crews were recently deployed from their home base in Florida to undisclosed bases in the Middle East.

    These aircraft are typically deployed in advance of or during air combat operations to ensure the recovery of downed aircrews. They facilitate U.S. commanders maintaining personnel recovery capability during high-risk air operations, including those involving strikes or sustained air activity over hostile territory. Again, not any point in deploying as part of a sabre-rattling exercise but essential for combat operations.

    Interestingly, many of the USA’s allies in the region have refused permission for America to transit their airspace for any confrontation with Iran. Citing fear of imminent reprisal from the regime, this has pushed the US into deploying a massive naval contingent including the aircraft carrier the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest warship ever built. The Ford has been at sea since June 2025 and the Commander of the US Fleet, Admiral Daryl Caudle, pushed back against extending the crew’s deployment even further. To give this some context, if, as the crew has been informed, this extension of their deployment is scheduled until April 2026, it will break post-Vietnam War records for operational duration. But the Admiral’s pushback was ignored and the USS Gerald R. Ford is on track to reach the coast of Israel either today or tomorrow. Once again, unnecessary to keep these poor sailors away from their families for another extended period if all you were doing was sabre-rattling. However, when your Middle Eastern allies close off their airspace for your combat operations, you need to source and use your own launch platforms.

    Will the USA definitely strike Iran? Latest statements from the White House claim that the world will know in 10 day’s time. That seems to me to be well beyond the threshold for keeping pre-positioned troops and assets safe. The Iranians have already deployed a Shahed drone against a US ship which shot it down when it got too close. These carrier groups and major military assets forward deployed represent targets for as long as they are in the region. Leaving them in situ for a further 10 days seems irrational and unwise. But then again, another 10 days gives the President of the USA some time to come up with the reason he’s committed the biggest military expedition since 2003 to the region. To date, he hasn’t actually stated the justification for this intervention and in fact, as major news outlets have noted, hasn’t bothered involving Congress or even any public debate or consultation. His critics point out that having to strike Iran again so soon after his last foray only proves that the previous bombings had little to no effect, despite Trump’s claims of garlanded glory.

    And the Iranian regime? They’re actually talking a hard game with mentions of Red Lines and unacceptable American demands. Warning that the US could still be dealt a heavy blow despite the size and strength of their military contingent. In private, a law firm in France has seen over a thousand percent increase in visa applications from wealthy Iranians. Russia has confirmed it will take fleeing heads of the Iranian regime and provide them sanctuary in Moscow. Russia has also, in the past week, delivered weapons technology in exchange for gold in a further quid pro quo for Iran’s supply of missiles and drones for Putin’s war against Ukraine. Yesterday Russia also conducted joint naval exercises with Iran near the Straits of Hormuz. While a lot of journalists pointed to this as Russia warning the US not to strike Iran, the Russian element was minimal in number and effect and more just a show of solidarity with Iran.

    China is also displeased at what it perceives as unchecked US aggression against one of China’s main suppliers of discounted oil. Importing 1.4 million barrels per day, this is a significant supply chain for Chinese energy. China supplies Iran with missile and air defence technology components that it can’t get anywhere else due to sanctions. I’ve seen reports of a marked increase in Chinese military freight planes landing in Iran since the beginning of February but no further details on what they could have been carrying. Despite this symbiotic relationship, China won’t openly support a direct confrontation with the US but will happily stoke the fires from the background.

    The scale and complement of this deployment already shows that this confrontation will be very different to the surgical strikes the USA implemented last year. This is a deployment that is anticipating weeks of operations, not just a day. And you know, maybe, just maybe, it is a bluff but if that’s the case, it’s a very bold call. Very bold. To expose an enormous task force to potential attack in the name of a diplomatic deal? As I said earlier, I’d buy that if it wasn’t for the logistic and rescue support elements deployed alongside the tip of the spear.

    So, the biggest military build-up since Iraq in 2003 is happening now and we don’t know whether it’s war or sabre-rattling of the most dangerous kind. We’re told we’ll find out in 10 days.

    My gut tells me we will find out, one way or another, a lot sooner than that.

    The Arctic axe about to fall

    By

    On January 21, 2026

    In Military Matters, Topical

    Why Trump is definitely going to take Greenland

    At this point in time, I think it’s safe to say that the world, and Europe in particular, needs to accept that Donald Trump is deadly serious about his threat to take Greenland as a territory of the United States. I’m sure a lot of politicians and ministers have been writing it off as just another example of Trump’s bluster and belligerence but they need to realise that this time, it’s different.

    Media coverage has reported the motivation for Trump’s current obsession as being the oil and minerals which lie beneath the Arctic island’s frozen plateaux. While this is true, it is really only the headline that misses the key information which, when one reads it, explains why Trump’s statements about taking Greenland should be treated as intention rather than aspiration.

    To understand why his administration is determined to ‘own’ Greenland for national security reasons, we need to turn our attention back to the US/China trade disputes at the end of 2025. In amongst the noise of tariffs and supply chain breakage, there was a further issue with immediate and future ramifications for the USA. This was China’s restriction, then suspension, of rare earth elements (REEs) to the USA. For people who even registered these actions at the time, the perception was probably that this meant problems for iPhones, Androids, laptops and computers.

    Think bigger. Think about weapon systems. Defence shields. Early Warning apparatus. Advanced fighter aircraft. Submarine sonar. As much as our electronic consumables need these rare earth elements, the weapons and defence systems we rely upon to protect our nations and deter hostile actors rely heavily upon these elements. And at the tail end of 2025 China slowed then halted the supply of these to the USA. With the sudden realisation that their main adversary had a monopoly on these elements, the implications were terrifying to the Pentagon. The supply of elements essential to the production of advanced weapons and defence systems was reliant on relations with China. And at the end of 2025 when China suspended the supply of rare earth elements to the USA, the harsh reality hit home:

    China could directly control the quantity and quality of America’s future security and defence.

    This, of course, is unacceptable. To any nation. But particularly to one with new imperialist ambitions and an open claim to controlling the Western Hemisphere. So the first response on identifying this reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals was, of course, where else do you source them?

    Enter Greenland.

    Greenland holds significant deposits of the key rare earth elements utilised in the production of advanced weapons and defence systems. And it’s right on America’s doorstep. Right on it.

    And this is why Trump doesn’t push for an increased US presence in Greenland, which, under the current treaty he doesn’t even have to ask for he is actually allowed to just do. It’s why he doesn’t ask for a multinational task force to step up and increase Greenland’s security against the Russian and Chinese aggressions he claims are happening.

    It’s why he talks of ownership. Of Greenland as an integral part of the continental United States. Because owning Greenland means owning the rare earth elements that his country needs to produce the advanced weapons and defence systems essential to keeping it safe. No pact, treaty or agreement can provide this so there’s no point even looking at any of these as a potential solution. The US needs to own Greenland to safeguard its national security. Now, I’m no geologist and I’ve read conflicting reports about how easy or not it will be to extract these elements from Greenland soil. But remember that even when the Trump administration knew that the oil in Venezuela was a thick, heavy crude that none of the major oil companies wanted anything to do with, he still went ahead. So, easy extraction or not, he is determined to own the lands where these elements are found.

    And that’s why Europe and the rest of the world need to understand that Trump isn’t kidding. He is going to take Greenland, one way or another. He doesn’t care if it breaks NATO, fractures the established world order, encourages multiple new conflicts to erupt. He only cares about securing a supply of rare earth elements for his country’s security and defence and severing the reliance on China.

    And here’s an interesting wrinkle for those watching American and world current affairs. With the protests against the ICE raids in Minneapolis making national news in the US every night, the Trump administration has stated that troops from the US Army’s 11th Airborne Division will be sent to the state of Minnesota to assist in quelling the ‘civil unrest’. Why is this interesting or relevant to an article about Greenland, I hear you ask?

    The photo above shows soldiers from the 11th Airborne Division on a training exercise in their home base state of Alaska. It’s cold and snowing but they seem well-equipped and confident. And that would be because they are the US Army’s specialist cold weather fighting force. Their nickname is ‘The Arctic Angels’. When the Trump administration could have sent thousands of troops from a state away, why drag these specialist troops all the way down from Alaska to stand on streets and intimidate protestors? My theory? They’re not going anywhere near Minneapolis.

    They’re preparing to deploy to Greenland.

    Think about it this way. There are already US special forces, NSA, and CIA assets in Greenland, of that there can be no doubt. They will have been working the region for months, covertly preparing the conditions for when the trigger is pulled to take the island. What they need next is boots on the ground in numbers to secure and hold key installations in preparation for the occupying forces to arrive. These would need to be cold weather warfare troops comfortable with fighting and operating in an Arctic environment. Troops like the 11th Airborne Division.

    To me, the White House statement about deploying these troops to Minneapolis is actually a clever cover story to mask the operational reason for bringing the troops out of Alaska and into the lower 48. The Trump administration couldn’t risk flying the 11th Airborne Division directly from Alaska to Greenland as they would have to cross Canadian airspace. And Canada is on very high alert to all things American military going on near their borders. The US would quickly have lost the element of surprise. But bringing them south and redeploying from the US? Problem solved.

    I would love to be wrong on this assessment but I don’t think I am. All the evidence is already out there in separate pieces but it’s only when you put them together that a full picture emerges. Anyway, we will see sooner rather than later I believe. I don’t see anything that will hold Trump back on this one, buoyed as he is by his recent success in Venezuela.

    But don’t take my word for it. Take Canada’s.

    Canadian troops on a training exercise

    In a ‘I never thought I’d see this in my lifetime’ moment, Canada has just concluded a war-game simulation where the aggressors are, you guessed it, The United States. This wasn’t done on a whim but on the grounds that Canada is integral to Trump’s doctrine of owning or controlling the Western Hemisphere. After Greenland, Canada is under no illusions that Trump will be coming for them next. The simulation showed that Canada could probably hold the might of the US military at bay for no more than two days. Thereafter, organised resistance and insurgency tactics would be implemented to make the cost of occupation too high for the invaders to accept. That in itself is a staggering but very realistic conclusion. That the big bad bully and his gang might overrun Canada initially but they will pay a such heavy toll in the long run that they will be forced to abandon their imperialist northern venture.

    So, Greenland is a definite for Trump and for America’s national security, at least as his administration sees it. And sooner rather than later, judging by the increase in the rhetoric and vitriol he is pumping out on his personal social media platform. Today sees Trump scheduled to arrive at the Davos World Economic Forum where he has already lit the blue touch paper by insulting European leaders and publishing personal messages between them and him. As I write this, Trump has just arrived in Davos to a suitably cold reception and it will be interesting to see what impact his personal presence has.

    But one thing is certain; he is not going to be dissuaded by anyone, to back off on his claim to Greenland.

    Christmas Capers

    By

    On December 19, 2025

    In Topical

    Nothing says Christmas abroad like a chad jumper and a Glock on the hip!

    I recently attended a reunion with some former colleagues from a specialist unit we were all once members of. Most of us don’t see one another for years at a time, some for over a decade and some, well, some have passed on and are remembered in the stories and tales we recall and regale them with. One of my friends had begun working with another agency, still very much in the same vein of his former employment but with far more reasonable working hours, which got us to discussing how much time we’d spent away from family in the name of dedication to the work we did. Which in turn made me think about the Christmases I’d missed or been deployed far from home and how that had made me feel at the time and how I felt about it now, all these years later.

    I won’t moan about being deployed away from home for so many Christmases, after all, most of that was down to my choice of wanting to be operational, doing the job for real. And back way back when, we didn’t have the connectivity of instant communications with friends and family. Actual letters, a phone call from a landline telephone (if you had access to one), or, in some cases, a radio call patched through to a UK landline. The latter still makes me chuckle at how archaic that sounds in this day and age. And how frustrating it was trying to teach my partner at the time to say ‘Over’ when she had finished her sentence. So, I think maybe back then, there was an element of not missing Christmas so much as we didn’t have immediate access to be able to watch in real time, our loved ones enjoying their day.

    Me as a young Royal Marine in Northern Ireland

    My first Christmas away from home was spent as a young Royal Marine in South Armagh, Northern Ireland. Bandit Country, as it was referred to. At the time I was single and not much of a homebody so the impact upon me was minimal. A Christmas dinner was cooked and those of us who weren’t on guard in the sangars sat down to enjoy the turkey, potatoes, and veg our Royal Marine chefs had cooked for us. The officers, as was the tradition, served the Christmas meal to us common types and I remember thinking at the time that it showed them in a more human light, rather than just our leaders and superiors. Good banter and high morale had by all but immediately after, it was back to work as usual, switching with the guys on guard to let them come and have their meal. I didn’t think too deeply about things at the time but when I look back now at my peer group of 19 – 25 year olds sleeping in a single man room with six bunks in each, donning helmet, radio, weapon and ammunition and looking at a rain drenched village in South Armagh where locals went about their own Christmas, visiting family, exchanging gifts, cooking the dinner, the contrast between our experience and the general public couldn’t have been more stark.

    A very different Christmas view!

    Another Christmas some years later, again as a Royal Marine, and again in the lashing, horizontal rain, saw me standing yards from a nuclear submarine guarding it against intruders. Faslane Naval Base, Helensburgh, Scotland, home to the UK’s nuclear deterrent and a target for CND protesters, Russian spies, and intrusive media. As a single man posted to Commachio Group Royal Marines, it was inevitable that I would pick up the Christmas deployment to stand in the driving rain for hours at a time while the rest of the country sat with swollen bellies snoozing through The Queen’s Speech. I came off my stint on the jetty just after four in the morning and was rudely awakened at six in the morning by pounding on our accommodation door. Bleary eyed, exhausted, and a tad ill-tempered, I opened the door and blurted out ‘What the f*** do you want?’ Before realising that the damp, uniform-clad individual before me was my Commanding Officer; the CO, a Lieutenant Colonel and about the highest rank a young Royal Marine would ever be exposed to. Before I could stammer out an apology and retract my words, he held out two bags and in the most joyful, plummy, posh accent bellowed ‘MERRY CHRISTMAS ROYAL MARINES!’ He deposited the bags into my hands, spun on his heel and departed, leaving me bewildered as I stared at a bag of tangerines and a net of walnuts. I recall shaking my head as the realisation came to me that the upper class were well and truly different from the rest of us.

    The Famous Christmas Food Fight of Four-Five Commando: I had the ‘opportunity’ to spend another Christmas working rather than being at home with my partner. On this occasion, the Christmas dinner was scheduled for several days before the big day to allow the entire unit to enjoy it en masse before breaking up for Christmas Leave. I was a bit older and wiser by now and knew that so many reprobates attending a dinner in one place at the same time was a recipe for disaster. Again, as tradition directed, the meal was to be served by the Sergeants and Officers. Even as we paraded in single file into the galley, the mood of mischievous intent was palpable as small groups of Marines schemed and plotted while giggling like naughty schoolboys. As we took our seats, the RSM, a tall, glowering figure of a man with a fearsome reputation, stood on a table and growled at us. This was a Christmas dinner and would be eaten with respect for the food and the officers and senior serving it. A food fight was NOT a tradition and anyone thinking it was would soon find out the hard way that it wasn’t . . . That last statement had barely concluded when a spectacularly large Granny Smith apple shot across the room and smacked the RSM straight in his right eye. His bellow of rage was cut short as he toppled from the table and disappeared behind it as he crashed to the floor. Then it was as if someone had pressed a button that said ‘Wild West fight now’. The entire massive dining hall erupted into chaos as every type of food became a projectile and the air filled with shouts, screams, and cackles of laughter. I watched a Colour Sergeant whose nickname was ‘The White Rat’ sprint for the safety of the solid metal serving area only to be felled at the last moment by a fast-travelling roast potato which exploded on his head, tearing his little paper crown off and causing him to drop to his knees, mouth wide in rage and shock as he yelled his displeasure. An unfortunate young Captain almost made it to the hard cover of the kitchen before he was stopped in his tracks by a turkey drumstick to his cheek, the offending item somersaulting across the room before striking its target with a satisfying smack of flesh on flesh. Bread rolls filled the air as the most abundant ammunition source, followed by the roast potatoes, chosen for their optimum weight and pleasing range, finding their targets the entire length of the room. I’m not sure when exactly the first plate was frisbeed across the battlefield but having up to this point sustained no serious injuries, I decided discretion was the better part of valour and conducted a fighting withdrawal towards the fire exit. Even as I hard-targeted between tables, the scenes of carnage all around me told me I was doing the right thing: A marine I knew from Zulu Company caught my eye and was laughing from behind the cover of a table until an entire jug of gravy was poured over his head, cutting short his guffaws. A furtive scurrying drew my attention and I watched as a lance corporal from Support Company darted on all fours between the tables, avoiding the mayhem above him until a large hairy hand shot down and stabbed a fork into his arse cheek. His back arched and his scream of shock and pain dominated the room as he threw his hand behind him to remove the offending item from his buttocks. The smashing of plates grew louder as the acceptance of this escalation of weaponry was embraced by all and I’d just kicked the fire exit door open when a barrage of china exploded against it, my escape having now been compromised. I made it outside, doubled over with laughter at the chaos and carnage I had just witnessed, then moved swiftly away from the scene of the crime. The next morning there was a half-hearted attempt by several Sergeants to identify the main miscreants and bring them to justice but with every man involved in the fracas in one way or another, it was a futile task. I would find myself breaking into giggles days later when I would encounter one of the seniors or officers with a spectacular black eye, the battle scars from the Famous Christmas Food Fight of Four-Five Commando.

    In a completely different vein from the story above, while working in a special operations role in a European country, I was covering the Christmas period as part of a small standby team. At the time, I was living in a Safe House in a rural community away from our area of operations. It had been snowing heavily but the good kind of snow; that dry, soft powder you can just shake off your jacket or kick off your boots. The snow also seemed to fall mainly at night, leaving the days cold, crisp, and clear. I’d also adopted a dog at that time and she was my constant companion and as we had a lot of free time, we’d spend the days in silent forests, the only sounds the crunching of our feet and paws in the freshly fallen snow. I didn’t engage much with the locals, a nod and wave to those I passed on the road pretty much the limit. As this was a counter-insurgency situation, it wasn’t always apparent who the bad guys were or who supported them. Add to that the fact that I wasn’t fluent in the language, I would be immediately identified as ‘not local’. Of course, I had a solid cover story to explain all that but the thing with a cover story is that you want to deploy it as little as possible. One afternoon however, I returned to my house and saw a tractor sitting in the road outside with a man I recognised as a neighbour from a mile or so up the road. I already knew from research his whole background, affiliations, family etc so knew that he wasn’t a threat. As I approached, he waved at me to come over and I made my way to him. He was older than me and had the craggy, tanned complexion of someone who spends most of their life outdoors. Even though he was no threat, I was covertly armed, very well trained, and confident that I could get myself out of any difficulties that might arise. I also had to appear natural, behave as any other individual would in these circumstances. As I approached, he climbed down from the tractor and ruffled my dog’s fur, grinning as he did so. He then addressed me in English, heavily accented but very clear.

    ‘Why you not go home for Christmas?’

    I explained that my work needed me here as a response guy for any problems and that I had gotten home the year before when I worked in a different part of the country so it was my turn this year.

    ‘My wife, she worry for you. You alone, only with dog. Dog okay, but people better at Christmas.’

    I started to speak but he held up his hand as he smiled.

    ‘No. She send me to get you. You come, dog come, you eat, you drink, get fat, and sleep. You do this in UK also, yes?’


    I laughed and nodded, forming the polite refusal in my head, getting the words right so as not to cause offence. The offence part didn’t really concern me as much as being remembered for rudeness and being spoken about and brought up in conversations, highlighting me as opposed to me blending into the background as Mr Uninteresting. But the bigger part of me didn’t want to turn down an offer of genuine charity from what I assessed to be good people. The silence stretched on for a moment before I broke it with a smile and a nod.

    ‘Thank you so much, I accept your generous offer, just let me grab a few things.’


    He returned my smile and clapped my shoulder before leaping back on his tractor and turning it around in a slow circle through the snow. I made my way quickly into the house and retrieved a couple of bottles of single malts that I had, dumped them in a bag and made my way back outside. I waved and began to walk but my neighbour beckoned me to bring the dog and jump up on the tractor. After coaxing my trusty hound up, I followed and squeezed into the cab as we made our way the mile or so to his farm. Without going into great detail, I hold this memory dear to me as one of the most lovely Christmas memories I have of being deployed abroad. His wife and children were wonderful, all spoke some level of English so communication was a lot easier than I’d thought. The kids were rapt with my pooch who in turn, was absolutely lapping up the attention and the scraps of meat being discreetly passed to her under the table by her new-found friends. The meal was incredible with a lot of local dishes which I’d come to enjoy already while in-country. We spoke of family, friends, food, customs, exchanged stories and for four or so hours I experienced a Christmas as I think it was always meant to be. Camaraderie trumping consumerism with no extravagant gifts or presents. Wholesome food and just the right amount of alcohol to encourage rather than embarrass. Conversation and engagement replacing the standard focus on what’s on the television screen.

    I realise how idyllic that last story sounds but that’s how it happened. A stranger identified as being alone and far from home, welcomed and cared for by a family to whom such a thing was unthinkable. That they would have felt uncomfortable with themselves had they not at least attempted to invite the stranger to share Christmas with them. And by share, I really mean in the vein of ‘what’s ours is yours’, such was their genuine generosity. I’ve since had many other times when I wasn’t at home for Christmas, some of them okay, some of them downright miserable, but none of them even close to my experience with my farmer neighbour and his family. It taught me several lessons which I’ve always held close to me, the key one being the actual spirit of Christmas itself, which I know can sometimes be lost in the cavalcade of consumerism we embark upon each year. It also taught me to appreciate each Christmas I had at home as, in many places around the globe and in far harsher circumstances, there are men and women deployed who aren’t so fortunate as to be experiencing a day such as I had.

    So, Merry Christmas to all and I hope you have a terrific day surrounded by friends and family with as much laughter as the Famous Four-Five Commando Food Fight!

    The Man on the Moor

    By

    On October 31, 2025

    In Topical, Writing and Publishing

    The Mist, The Moor, and a Man who didn’t belong . . .

    Over the years, as well as the usual stuff I write and talk about, I’ve relayed a few weird tales from both my own and my colleagues’ experiences. A friend of mine once joked that as well as the thrillers and spy fiction I write, I should pen something along the lines of Strange Things Soldiers Have Seen. To be fair, I don’t really have the time to devote to such a venture but I still tell the odd story of strange goings on not easily explained. So, nothing too serious here, just a tale I have relayed from personal experience and, weird as it may seem, this did actually happen. Even all these years later, I still don’t have a rational explanation for it. And, well, it’s Halloween so please enjoy it in the manner in which it is meant.

    ***

    Many moons ago, when I was a young Royal Marine Commando, I was attending a promotion course to achieve the rank of Corporal. This was a tough, 3-month evolution with a lot of emphasis on operational-focussed exercises in the field and, as one would expect, leadership of troops in battle. The exercises were both physically demanding and mentally testing, pushing candidates to their limits and often beyond. One of these exercises was a night navigation test, a NAVEX, conducted as the name suggests, overnight in order to increase the difficulty of the test. While not quite as long or as taxing as the 30 Miler completed during our Commando training, this was still a long slog carrying kit, heavy radio and batteries, and weapons over the wild, rough terrain of Dartmoor. The start time was around eleven o’clock at night with the cut-off time being around five in the morning. My NAVEX took place, rather fittingly, in late October. Wet, cold autumnal weather from the west dominating our experiences in the field. When we arrived at the start of the NAVEX, we were met by members of the DS, the Directing Staff, who ensured we were carrying the correct kit, weight, and had at least a rough idea of where we were going. We were split into eight-man sections and despatched off in fifteen-minute intervals in different directions to ensure we wouldn’t just follow each other. My section was particularly strong with a couple of SBS (Special Boat Service) operators, two guys from Brigade Patrol Troop (BPT), and some of the course’s best performers.

    When we set off just after 2300h, the weather had calmed somewhat but the damp remained in the air as we set the bearing on the compass and trotted off into the bleak Dartmoor night. We took it in turns to lead a leg of the exercise, each man assuming the responsibility for the accuracy of his map-reading and pace-counting as we couldn’t see any features to guide us in the dark. Within a couple of hours, we were well into the middle of Dartmoor itself, all signs of civilisation many miles behind us as we ran through swollen streams and panted up steep hills, balancing speed of progress with accurate navigation, determined not to screw up and fail the test. It was well into the wee hours when we decided to stop, take on some water and swap over lead navigators. We all gathered around the maps to make sure we knew where we were and where we were going. We noticed that the thick mist that had been collecting in the hollows and valleys was now everywhere, reducing visibility to a few metres. We joked that the DS had engineered this in order to add a further testing element to the exercise. Happy with our position and new bearing, the lead navigator folded the map and stowed it away as we finished off our drinking and shoved some snacks down our throats to keep our energy levels up. Once everyone was ready, we set off again in single file along a small game trail and over a hill, monitoring our bearing to ensure we didn’t veer off and become disoriented in the fog. We had just crested the hill when the front man stopped and we closed up behind him, looking up to see what was wrong.

    Still in single file, we watched in silence as a man appeared from the fog, walking towards us a couple of metres from the small track we were following. He had a pale, pinched face, long, dark curly hair, was slight of build, and dressed in a suit and black, slip-on leather shoes with white socks. His suit was grey or silver and you could see it was a very thin material covering a white shirt and skinny black tie. He looked, for all intents and purposes, as though he had just stepped out of a pub after last orders. Except there were no pubs for around 20 miles, no houses or even farms for at least 10 miles. Not even a definitive track or road that led to either or that it could be argued that he was following. He was literally in the middle of nowhere, in the middle of thick fog and going to who the hell knew where. The man didn’t acknowledge us. Didn’t look up, turn his head or comment. Didn’t seem to notice eight armed Commandos stood only metres from him. He merely continued walking with his hands rammed into the pockets of his tight suit trousers, shoulders hunched and eyes locked on the ground to his front. As he passed us, we all turned to follow his progress until he melted into the fog and was out of sight. Nobody moved or said a word for almost a minute until one of the SBS operators spoke.

    “Well, that was f**king weird.”

    This broke our silent spell and we were soon discussing the odd encounter. Maps were brought out as we tried to identify where our strange visitor had come from and where he was going but nothing to explain this realistically could be found. Someone joked that based on his clothing, he looked like he’d left a crap 1980’s nightclub and we laughed but also recognised the accuracy of this description. We were just about to move off and continue with the task at hand when one of the BPT lads stepped off the track, turned on his torch and examined the ground where the stranger had been walking. Curious, we paused again then joined our colleague when he called us over. He looked up at us while highlighting the bracken and heather around him.

    “There was something bugging me about that bloke other than the obvious weirdness. I couldn’t quite work it out at first but then it hit me; he was walking along like he was on a road or a track but look.”

    With that, our colleague began walking where our strange visitor had walked, but having to lift his legs high to avoid entanglement in the dense foliage and even at that, encountering difficulties when trying to maintain a forward momentum. I could see exactly what he meant; nobody could walk through that thickness of scrub without staggering or stumbling, yet our nocturnal walker had ambled along as casually as if he was on a pavement in Plymouth. Our colleague spoke again.

    “The other mad thing I can’t wrap my head around? I could see his shoes and socks. As clear as day. But how is that possible?”

    He was right: Where the stranger had been walking was thick foliage to almost knee height. Yet I had also seen the stranger’s feet clearly. Again, we were silent for several moments as we digested this until the lead navigator suggested we get back to the business of completing the NAVEX and deal with our weird encounter after that. We were, as he reminded us, still on a clock.

    With that, we returned to the mud of the thin game trail, confirmed our bearing, adjusted our loads, and jogged off once again into the fog. While I was running, I thought long and hard about our strange visitor and tried in vain to come up with a valid reason for his appearance in that location and his completely inadequate dress for the weather. It also bugged me that he hadn’t acknowledged us, not even a sideways glance. But the walking demonstration my colleague had shown us was what bothered me most. It was completely at odds with how our weird walker had ambled past us, smooth and steady with not even a hint of resistance. And the impossibility of seeing the stranger’s shoes bothered me a lot and try as I might, I couldn’t explain it. But, like the rest of the section, I put it to one side and focussed on our current task. Between the fog and the dark, the navigation was challenging and took all our collective skills to ensure we didn’t stray too far off course. But we were a strong section and confident in our abilities and made good progress through the night.

    We finally closed in to the finish point of our NAVEX and had completed it with a little time to spare, checking in with the DS then changing into dry clothing before wolfing down a massive, greasy breakfast in one of the derelict stone barns of the old farm complex. Over huge mugs of steaming tea and coffee, we discussed our weird occurrence with each other and guys from the other sections but by then the oddity had worn off and it was treated as an amusing rather than spooky encounter with many jokes and outlandish theories bandied around.

    I’d almost forgotten about the encounter until a former colleague and I got back in touch a couple of years ago and he reminded me of it and the memories came flooding back. He now lives in Southwest England and regularly visits Dartmoor, recalling the memory of the occurrence every time he visits. For those, like me, who rarely make it to the region let alone Dartmoor itself, the memory faded with time and age as day-to-day life took precedence. Odd though, that as soon as I was reminded of it, the details were immediately as clear as they had been on the night in question, right down to the cheap fabric of the suit. And I found myself once again, stood on a slim, muddy trail in fog-bound Dartmoor watching a man dressed for a 1980’s nightclub glide past a section of armed Commandos without so much as a glance. And again, I was completely unable to determine a realistic explanation for this encounter.

    So, there you have it, a wee Halloween-related tale appropriate for the time of year. Hope you enjoyed it!

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