Author of Military Thrillers and Spy Fiction

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Four meals from anarchy…(Updated)

AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis

I first posted this article a couple of years back and it’s probably the one that generated the most conversations from friends and colleagues after they read it and put themselves in the shoes of my protagonist. All of them agreed that it is a realistic and horrifying scenario which most of us don’t even pay lip service to thinking about. But when we do, it soon becomes apparent how ill prepared we are to deal with such a situation. And how quickly our comfortable existence would be degraded.

The reason I’ve updated and reposted here is the recent increase we’ve seen in attacks against subsea communication and power cables. Earlier this week, the underwater cables that connect Australia to the wider world were targeted. A tanker’s suspicious movements showing a dedicated interest in the area of the cables before 2 of 18 were broken. An attack against the very digital lifeblood of the antipodean nation. Nearer to home, Russia consistently targets European power and communications cables and have only been unsuccessful due to the intelligence and security agencies vigilance and defences.

But they won’t always be successful in this defence.

So what happens when an adversary succeeds in destroying critical infrastructure for even a relatively short period of time? Well, we now know from the experiences of Ukraine exactly how this scenario pans out. But should the same situation occur in the UK, could we cope? Have a read below and see what you think . . .

I’m often asked where I get the ideas for my books from and how realistic they actually are. The broad answer is that I employ a combination of personal experiences and real world events. With over three decades in front-line counter terrorism and military operational experience, I’m rarely short of ideas or plots.

MI5 crest

Take the title of this article for example. Four meals from anarchy. That term comes from an MI5 threat matrix carried out some years back and refers to the timeframe in which the UK would descend into anarchy after a comprehensive cyber attack taking out our power supply for an extended period. It took into account how reliant our nation is on electricity, digital communication platforms, and how little resilience is built into the system to cope with large-scale, prolonged outages. It also identified how fragile our food supply chain is and again, how even the smallest disruption to it would have a disproportionate effect. Think about Tesco and other major retailers ‘Just in Time’ model of supply. This is where the resupply to major supermarkets takes place just before stock is depleted to a certain level. It’s why and how Tesco et al can save money by not having massive storage sites at their locations. But it is extremely vulnerable to any transport or communications disruption.

The thing is, MI5 don’t have to imagine or attempt to predict the effects that such a cyber attack and power outage would have. They have had the opportunity to study several events where this very thing has happened. The biggest one obviously being when Russia carried out an operation of this type against Ukraine. Banks, food supply and storage, Internet, mobile phones, fuel supplies, traffic lights, air travel, train travel, trams, heating and hot water. It would take too long to list every element affected by the attack but it’s sobering to see the immediacy and depth of impact this type of hybrid warfare has.

And Ukraine was far more resilient than we in the UK would be. Ukraine as a country is accustomed to Russian attacks and intimidation and the Ukrainian people stoic and resolute in coping with the associated effects and hardships. We as a nation have not been exposed to the same misfortunes and suffering and consequently not invested in mitigation and coping strategies.

One of the largest increases in crime in the UK in the past year has been that of shoplifting, up 25% from the year before. 25%. By any measure, and for any crime, that’s an eye-watering statistic. And it’s not being carried out by poor people who can’t afford food. The type of offender ranges across the class spectrum as steaks, cheese, wine and other alcohol top the stolen items list. Organised criminal gangs have also jumped on the bandwagon, recognising the minimal possibility of arrest and prosecution as a very low risk/high reward criminal enterprise.

Shoplifter filmed on CCTV

I bring this up to highlight the fact that this stealing of food is occurring when there is no threat to our food supply and availability. It takes very little imagination to picture the increase in stealing food on the second day our country has no power. Those who already steal carrying on as normal, the newcomers justifying their actions as self-preservation. The criminal gangs would expand the scope of their thefts to a wholesale level, stealing in bulk now to sell for maximum profit later as food supplies become more scarce. The competition for the securing of food also leading to increased violence at every level.

And that’s just food. Think about our reliance on petrol and diesel for transport and goods delivery and the impact of having none. No electricity for EVs. Ambulances, fire engines, police cars, all affected from the off. Rail and air travel stopped. The mobility we rely on every day for every aspect of our lives suddenly ended.

Communication blackouts, initially from cyber attack then from no power availability. No internet or phone connectivity. Isolation from family and friends as the situation deteriorates further. Information available only as rumour and speculation, the void of news reporting filled by conspiracy theories and fearmongering.

Water supply and sewage control. This was one of the key areas the Russian’s targeted in Ukraine as it has a twofold effect in terms of impact. When citizens lose their water supply it has immediate effects on health and hygiene. The secondary impact is on mental health and morale, a deep rooted panic setting in as it becomes apparent that things are getting far worse than could ever have been imagined.

When the Soviet Union, then Russia, employed their deep-cover ‘sleeper’ agents in countries abroad, attacks against key infrastructure were planned and rehearsed due to the immediate and very public effects they had on a nation. A government dealing with a population turning upon each other and their leaders has few remaining resources with which to combat the external threat.

In 2013, a series of power outages in the USA assessed to be a fault in the system, turned out to be something far more nefarious. When the outages were investigated, it was found that fibre-optic cables and electricity transformers had been targeted in what was described by investigators as ‘military level’ in planning and execution. Where the elements of the transformers had been disabled, it was found that they had been shot, from distance and with accuracy, indicating training and proficiency by whoever had carried it out. CCTV caught a puzzling series of small flashes away from the target area and this was later identified as signals which initiated and ended the attack. Again, an indication of complexity and coordination. On the shell casings found at the firing points, no prints or identifying forensic evidence was recovered, pointing to operational discipline and experience. And the thing is, this case has never been solved. A rehearsal by a Russian ‘sleeper’ team? Anti-government militia flexing their muscles?

Repairs to electrical substation after sabotage attack

In truth, the ‘who’ doesn’t really matter. The fact is that there is a group out there somewhere with the confidence, knowledge, capability, and who have now executed their concept successfully. Several counter terrorist investigators used the term ‘frightening’ when describing their assessment of the attack, referring to both the soft, relatively unguarded nature of the target and the coordinated element of the operation.

Just a few weeks ago, a Chinese vessel in the Baltic Sea dragged its anchor for over 20 miles along the seabed, rupturing communication and energy-provison cables that serve Finland. Absolutely impossible that it was an accident. And coincidence that it occurred at the same time refugees turning up at Finland’s border with Russia increased from 1 a day to over 1,000? Unlikely. A typical page from the playbook of overwhelming a country’s government while disrupting energy supplies and communications. There’s no doubt that this was a Russian retaliation for Finland joining NATO, the bigger surprise being the joint venture with China.

So, back to my initial point of ideas for books and stories. I keep a small log of interesting bits and pieces such as this one you are reading about now for future writing projects. The information I’ve mentioned in this piece for example, is being woven into a shorter work for my Patreon and paying subscribers.

But here’s something for you to think about:

Day One:

You wake up. Late, because your phone didn’t charge and ran out of power through the night. You get up, flick the bedroom light switch and frown when the light doesn’t work. You carry on into the kitchen and check the time on a battery operated clock and swear under your breath because you’re really late for work. You flick the light switch in the bathroom but nothing happens. You swear again but don’t stop as you need to get ready quickly. Pushing the button on the electric shower, you slap your forehead when you realise it won’t work in a power cut. Okay, bird bath it is. When you turn on the taps, the water sputters for a few seconds then nothing more comes out. You try this again and again, unable to fathom why water isn’t coming out. Mmm . . . better call your friend who lives a few streets away and ask if . . . but you’ve no power in your phone. You run to your laptop and give a ‘hah’ of victory as the screen comes to life and you note there’s still some battery power. But no internet. Because the power’s down, your router isn’t working, and you can’t hot-spot from your dead phone. You’re now running very late and decide deodorant, a brush through your hair, and a quick clean of your teeth will have to suffice. As you grab your keys and the last banana from the bowl on the table, your only concern is getting to work and not on how long what little food you have in your fridge will last without electricity. Slamming the door behind you, you rush down the communal stairway, darker than usual because the lights are out, and bustle your way out into the street.

The first thing that strikes you is the amount of people stabbing at the screens on their mobile phones in frustration, or holding the devices up in the air, deep frowns on their foreheads as they try to get a signal. As you arrive at the bus stop a woman informs you that she’s been waiting nearly an hour and none have turned up. You ask if the drivers are on strike again but the woman shakes her head and says she doesn’t know. A man beside her picks up his bag and announces he’s going home as he’s tried his best but can’t get into work. He doesn’t seem too displeased about this. The traffic on the road is static, nose to tail and every few yards a driver leans on his horn in frustration. You’ve never seen a traffic jam on this road and wonder what could be causing it. A commotion across the street catches everyone’s attention and you watch as a group of youths explode out of the convenience store, arms full of food and drink, laughing as the aged shopkeeper tries to chase them. You join those around you in condemnation of the youths’ actions with a chorus of tutting and shaking of heads. You decide to walk a few streets over to another bus stop as, even if the buses are running on this line, they won’t get through until the traffic clears on the road.

As you walk the ten minutes or so to the next route, you are approached three times by strangers asking if you have a phone they could use. You explain politely that it’s dead and they move on quickly. But this makes you uneasy. Something about so many strangers in such a short period of time desperate for a phone unsettles you. At the corner of the street you groan when you see the traffic here is as bad as the street you left and you sigh in resignation, turn around and begin walking home. On reflex, you reach into your pocket for your phone, intending to call in and let work know you won’t make it, but stop short of pulling the device out when you remember. You realise you are thirsty and could also do with a coffee so cross the road and head towards the new Costa at the next junction. As you push the door to enter the shop, it doesn’t budge and looking in, you see four or five of the staff sitting at a table. One of them catches your eye and points to the window further down from the door. Following the guidance, you notice the improvised sign, ‘Closed. No electricity.’ Okay, you’ll just pick up some water from the convenience store. When you arrive at the store, their door is also locked. You shake your head as you knock, guessing that it’s a security measure after the youths’ stealing spree earlier. The face of the shopkeeper appears and waves you away. You explain that you just want to buy some water and he shouts through the glass barrier that they sold out of water earlier. You knock again to stop him turning away and yell that you will take some juice instead. He regards you for a second and tells you it’s cash only. You reach for your phone to show him your Apple Pay and groan when you realise the futility of your actions. Determination kicks in and you remember there is a cash machine nearby. With a rather dramatic ‘I’ll be back’, you stride out the small distance to the ATM. Which isn’t working because, of course, there’s no power. That uneasy feeling you experienced earlier comes back with a bit more force as the cumulative effect of the morning’s events starts to take hold. You turn around and head straight for home, allowing yourself a small grin when you think about how foolish you’ll feel in a couple of hours when the power comes back on.

Except it doesn’t. That afternoon, after rebooting your laptop over and over trying to get the internet restored, you drained the battery. No Netflix, Amazon Prime Video or YouTube to relieve the boredom. You eventually resorted to reading a book, sitting in a chair by the window where there was enough light. As the light died, you decided to have something to eat and, upon looking at the meagre contents in the fridge, reached for your phone to access the JustEat App before remembering it had more use as a coaster in its current state. Fine. You grab your coat and head towards the door, stomach rumbling in anticipation of the fish and chips to come. A memory from this morning comes back and you realise you will probably need cash but you haven’t used cash for so long you have none at hand. You do have a debit card and put this into your pocket, lock the door behind you then pause as you enter the dark stairwell. In all your years living here you’ve never seen it so dark. You hurry out into the street and register how dark it is here also, with no streetlights pooling their sodium glow onto the pavements and no shops with any light showing whatsoever. There’s also very few people around and those that are seem to be hurrying along, heads down and determined not to make eye contact. The traffic on the street remains the same as earlier today and you realise with a start that the cars have been abandoned, the drivers clearly unable to progress any further. You walk another couple of minutes before it hits you that there’s no point heading for fish and chips, or any kind of takeaway food for that matter. Nothing’s open. Nothing’s working. You think about it for a moment and decide to walk the mile or so to your friend’s house, see if they know when the power will be coming back on. This seems like a good idea until you notice the three men further along the road, leaning against the wall. They are stopping everyone walking past them, moving in close and clearly taking things from them. Your adrenaline spikes and mouth goes dry as you witness your first robberies, the raised voices of the criminals and powerlessness of the victims striking a deep fear within you. You turn and run for home.

Day Two:

You sleep late again but waken suddenly, thirsty and a little confused. Your face feels cold and you realise the heating hasn’t kicked in which in turn reminds you that the power still hasn’t come back on. A loud noise outside catches your attention and you shuffle to the window, pulling the curtain aside and looking out. A group of individuals in hoods and face masks are attacking the convenience store with baseball bats and lengths of metal pipes, smashing the door and windows. You raise your hand to your mouth as the old shopkeeper comes out of the door with a bat of his own and is beaten to the pavement where he lies unmoving and ignored as his attackers enter the shop. Instinctively, you turn to grab your phone to call the police but remember you can’t. The hooded individuals leave the store after several minutes, arms laden with boxes and bags. Several people you recognise as your neighbours walk across the street and you feel a flush of shame that you aren’t among them, heading over to check on the old shopkeeper. You raise your eyebrows in surprise when you see them glance at the old man before stepping around him and entering the shop. One by one they exit the store, quicker than they entered, furtive glances up and down the street as they juggle the food and drink in their arms. Your stomach rumbles in reaction and a second thought hits you; should I be doing that? You begin mentally justifying such an alien action. You don’t know how long this will last. You’re practically starving. You drank the small amount of water left in the kettle and don’t have any more. And besides, you’ll make a note of everything you take and pay the shop back later – more or less an IOU. Another group of people arrive at the store, this lot not even bothering to glance at the prone figure on the pavement before rushing into the building. The next sensation you feel comes from a deeper, primordial place; fear. A fear of missing the opportunity for food and drink to sustain you. You’ve never done anything like this in your life before but find yourself throwing on your coat and rushing out the door, blood pounding in your ears as you take the stairs three at a time. As you enter the store you deliberately avoid looking down at the shopkeeper, straining your eyes to take in the details of the dim interior. People are stripping the shelves and fridges and you are shocked at how little stock is left. For a brief moment you second guess yourself, appalled at how you ended up here, but when your eyes alight on a can of tomato soup all doubts disappear. Stuffing cans of soup, beans, and tuna into your coat pockets, you scan the store for further items. A lone packet of bacon on the floor by the fridge prompts a saliva deluge in your mouth and you start towards it before you realise you can’t cook it. You turn your attention back to the cans. With pockets full, you look around you and spy an empty bag lying by the magazine rack. Bending to pick it up you glance outside and notice some men across the road looking over. Your heart beats faster when you recognise them as the robbers you saw last night. You’re up and out the door, heading away from the shop before the conscious thought to do so has even entered your head. Back in your flat you lock the door and dump the cans onto the table before rushing to the window and looking outside. The three men are standing outside the shop, one of them prodding the unconscious shopkeeper with his foot while the others stop people leaving the shop, taking the goods from them. The first few people hand over their looted items after only token arguments. A man in a football top carrying several bags however, chooses to stand his ground. The robbers are upon him with a speed and ferocity of violence that shocks you and in seconds, there are two unconscious people on the pavement. The three thugs collect their spoils and distribute them among the bags and boxes for ease of carriage before setting off. When you raise your hand to close the curtain, you notice the tremors in your fingers. Rumbling in your stomach reminds you that you need to eat and you return to the kitchen, ready for a bowl of cold soup. You’re scared today. Really scared. You think a lot about your sister in Manchester and wonder if it’s the same there. Why has the power been off for so long? What’s happening? Why is nobody fixing this? Where are the police? It’s a long afternoon and night, boredom punctuated with small trips to the window, looking out on the world below as the shop gets emptier and the streets darker. Before bed, you head to the bathroom to relieve yourself and realise that it smells, there being no way to flush or dispose of the waste. When you climb into bed, the fear grows as you wonder what you are going to do tomorrow if the power is still not on. You need water; much more than you ever thought you would. You also need more food but from your observations today you know the shop has been stripped bare. So you’ll have to travel further afield, a prospect that fills you with dread as the memory of the robbers outside the shop and their swift, decisive application of violence returns. Pulling the duvet over your cold head, you do your best to sleep.

Day Three:

You wake to a raging thirst, trying to recall the crazy dreams you had through the night. It’s daylight and cold. Very cold. The sound of voices from the stairwell of your building motivates you to move and wrapping the duvet around you, you make your way to the door and place your ear against it. An authoritative voice is shouting and there is a lot of movement; doors opening and closing and people passing your flat. The booming voice repeats itself and the keywords spur you into action: Military. Water resupply. Bring containers. You haul open cupboard doors in a frenzy, determined to find the biggest receptacles you have but in the end all you can manage is a soup pot and several water bottles you pull from the recycling. Clothes donned and containers grabbed, you rush from the flat, almost colliding with the old man from the floor above as you run down the stairwell. When you burst into the street the noise hits you as you take in the scene around you. Several olive-green tankers are parked on the pavement across the road but there’s a densely packed crowd between you and the soldiers delivering the water. People are yelling. Some in fear, others in anger, most in frustration. A soldier with a loudhailer warns people not to push in, to hold back until it is their turn. You’re jostled and barged into as people try to get to the tankers and you realise if you don’t fight back you will never make it there yourself. Dropping your eyes, you drive yourself forward ignoring the angry responses as you gain ground, your maddening thirst fuelling your uncharacteristic aggression. After an hour or so, you reach the back of the queue, bruised, exhausted, and panting for breath. For the first time you can see the soldiers clearly and note how tense and frightened they look. And that they’re armed. Rifles at the ready. They control the queue from this point, cajoling and shepherding the mob into an orderly, snaking line that leads to the rear of the tankers where other soldiers are rationing out the water. As you progress, you see people begging for more water, arguing with the soldiers but being given short thrift. Those who don’t move on manhandled away from the tankers. When it comes to your turn, a soldier directs you to the second tanker where one soldier takes your pot and bottles as another activates the hose from the rear of the vehicle. For a brief instant, you fantasise about gulping down the entire pot of water and asking for a refill but you remember what happened to those who wouldn’t move on when ordered. You stuff your bottles into your pockets, jam the lid on the pot and follow the soldiers’ indication to the exit point. All you want to do is drink but the mood of the crowd has turned and a group tries to rush the tanker you just left. Shouted warnings from the soldiers, screams from those being trampled in the crowd, then an authoritative command comes over the loudhailer. ‘Engage. Engage.’ Dull pops followed by howls of agony inform you that the army has fired some form of crowd control weapon. You have no idea that these are rubber bullets, relics from the distant Northern Ireland conflict and that one of the men hit will die from the trauma that the projectile caused when it struck his chest. Chaos ensues as people try in vain to flee, the wails of those being crushed and trampled mingling with the rage of those focussing their ire on the military. But you have other things to worry about. Well, one thing really: How to get back to your flat without spilling your precious water. An animal cunning kicks in and you head away from both the crowd and your flat, taking a long, circuitous route devoid of people that takes you to the back entrance of your building. The back door is open and you waste no time in climbing the stairs and entering your flat, heeling the door behind you and placing your precious cargo on the kitchen table. You immediately lock the door then jump back in fright as someone pounds on it from outside. Heart hammering in your chest, you listen as a woman begs for water, crying as she explains the army has gone and she didn’t get her share. Pleading for help as she has two small children. She pounds the door again and you clench your fists and screw your eyes shut. You want to help but you can’t. You need the water as much as she does. The woman continues with her plea for several minutes then there is a moment’s quiet before she pounds on your neighbour’s door and begins anew. You pick up one of the water bottles and take a long drink, moaning with pleasure as the cool liquid slakes your thirst. The water has a chlorinated taste but this doesn’t bother you in the slightest. While all you want to do is down the entire contents, you stop yourself, put the top back on the bottle and place it with the others on the table. You wander to the window and look out, shaking your head at the remnants of the crowd, the injured and lame clutching varying parts of their bodies. Some aren’t moving at all, either dead or unconscious. A yell goes up from further along the street and you crane your neck to see what the commotion there is all about. A big orange flame erupts from an overturned vehicle as a crowd cheers. You step back and sit on the edge of your bed, suddenly overwhelmed with tiredness. A small nap, perhaps, would do you the world of good. It’s dark when you awaken, heart racing and blood pounding in your ears. A loud bang echoes around your flat and you realise someone is kicking your door. The boot is followed by a voice demanding you open the door. That they know you have water. That they only want a little from you. Your eyes are wide and hands shaking as you tiptoe into the dark kitchen where you stared at the door as it is booted again. It rattles in its frame but you can see it will hold. The voice shouts again, all pretence at reason now gone. Open the door or we’ll break it down and kill you. I’m warning you. You slide down the wall and sit on the cold floor, shivering and shaking until after another few minutes, there is silence and you hear pounding on your neighbour’s door followed by the shouts. Open up mate, we need you to share that water you got today. There’s people here really need it, women and kids and that. Open up now, we only need a little bit from everybody. Like before, the lack of response prompts an escalation in anger and threats from the unseen individuals until, once again, they move along and repeat their performance at the next door. Tears roll down your face as you realise that, unless something changes soon, these threats are going to become reality. You finally acknowledge the fact that you’re freezing and shuffle to your bed, cocooning yourself in the duvet for both warmth and retreat from grim reality.

Day Four:

You wake, cold again and still tired but desperate for the toilet. The bathroom really stinks now and you realise you should have thought of another way of getting rid of your waste. As you head back to the bedroom, you stagger and grasp at the doorframe for support as a wave of lightheadedness assails you. When it passes you take a look out the window and see a thick pall of smoke further along the street. The car you saw alight the previous evening still smouldering in the street while another vehicle belches thick black smoke into the air. There are several bodies lying on the road where the water tankers had been yesterday and you don’t even register how detached you’ve become that this only prompts a mild curiosity in you. Some movement catches your eye and you watch as a family leaves one of the houses opposite, a man, a woman and two girls, each individual laden with bags and rucksacks. Their white, pinched faces showing the fear they feel as they hurry along the pavement and turn the corner, out of sight and mind to you. A brief moment later, some more movement catches your attention and a small group of individuals make their way to the door of the house the family has just left. One of them tries the handle but the door doesn’t open. Several of them take turns at kicking the door down but this doesn’t work either. Large stones are gathered from the side of the road and hurled through the window, glass shattering and an entry point gained. Sticks and lengths of pipe are used to sweep the shards of glass from the frames and the individuals climb into the house. After several minutes, the front door is opened from the inside and the intruders begin trooping out, arms laden with duvets, blankets, and anonymous, misshapen bundles. But no food or water. You notice that. Because you’re starving. You know you need to go out and find more food but the thought terrifies you. Where the hell is the military? Will they come back today? Surely if they’re bringing water to people, they will bring food? Surely . . . Before you’re aware of it, you’ve been staring out the window for over an hour, staring but not seeing. There’s something familiar about the figures coming around the corner and you realise with a start it’s the family you saw leaving earlier that morning. But they look different. And there’s less of them. The man isn’t among them and the woman and girls no longer have any bags or rucksacks. They’ve been beaten and robbed of their coats, their clothing torn and dirty from whatever attack they’ve endured. The same stunned expression on their faces, they make their way to the home they vacated only hours earlier and stop, staring at the shattered window and open door. The woman collapses to her knees and drops her face in her hands as the two girls throw their arms around her and bury their faces into her shoulders. Any thoughts you have of venturing out to look for food now gone in wake of what you imagine this family to have experienced. Sounds in the stairwell draw your attention and you head to the door where you listen and interpret the noises. A door is forced open against the occupant’s will, screams then pleas for help. You vaguely recognise the voice but can’t put a face to it. The pleas are cut short and a silence, troubling in its immediacy and totality, ensues. You wonder if, like you, the rest of the block are listening at their doors, terrified to intervene and shameful in their gratitude at not being the victim. Yet . . . You jump as a loud voice yells up the stairwell that anybody who is caught not sharing their food and water will be punished harshly. For a moment you are confused. Was there some arrangement to do this that you were unaware of? And who are these people taking charge and punishing others? Your question remains unanswered when the voice orders all occupants to open their doors when asked to and allow their homes to be searched. Those who don’t comply will have their doors broken down and face harsh punishment. Again with that word; punishment. But you have no further time to dwell on this as the voice booms louder, fists thumping on your neighbour’s door as they demand entry. You have no time because you’re next and these are not good people. Panic sets in as you try in desperation to think where you can hide what remaining water you have. How thorough will the search be? Should you just drink all of the water now because they’ll take it anyway? The clear sounds of violence and suffering next door leave you in no doubt that these people will stop at nothing to get what they want. When the first fist pounds on your door, your heart is hammering in your chest and adrenaline flooding your veins as you stand on shaking legs, starved of both energy and willpower after 4 days without enough food and water . . .

Okay. I’ve kept our protagonist here a very simple one. Single, lives alone, no dependents, no pets, town or small city dweller. I’ve also shied away from ‘Hollywood’ scenes of mass violence and rioting. At least early on in a crisis. In reality it is the incremental advance of suffering and hardship that takes time for people to realise just how bad a situation really is. So, put yourself in our protagonist’s situation. Have a think about where you live and how you live and try to imagine the chain of events over 4 days of no power or communication. Where and how would you source food and water? How would you communicate with loved ones? Would your community come together or splinter apart and how could you be sure? Would it be different for people living in rural areas? I love the process of the imaginary ‘what would I do?’ Putting myself into these scenarios and wondering what I would do or how I would cope.

So, with 4 dinners being the timeframe from how you live right now until the country descends into anarchy, what would you do?

The Spy, the Submarines, and the Capybara

Iconic image of Royal Marines yomping across the Falkland Islands

In April 1982, Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, a cluster of small, windswept isles over 8,000 miles from the UK. A self-governing, overseas territory of the United Kingdom, much of Britain’s general public had never heard of these islands. This last fact was exploited to some degree for entertainment purposes by journalists who would ask random people in the street if they knew where the Falkland Islands were. Most who answered put the isles somewhere near Shetland or Orkney in the far north of Scotland. And while that may have been the public perception, the government was adamant that, remote or not, the islands were British territory and had just been invaded by a hostile force intent on occupation. A military task force was quickly assembled and the might of the British Armed Forces was sent 8,000 miles across the globe to reclaim the islands from the foreign invaders.

As well as the might of the UK’s conventional military, other, less obvious assets were deployed to assist in the intervention. GCHQ, the national spy agency responsible for hoovering up Signals Intelligence, SIGINT, went into overdrive as it sought to break Argentine communications in order to identify the enemy’s intentions and capabilities. But there was another element assisting the British that, for obvious reasons, was not revealed until decades later.

Spies.

Individuals recruited and tasked to gather information on the enemy and report their observations back to London. A very dangerous game considering these acts would take place in enemy territory. Behind the lines, so to speak. Even as I write this, most people are probably forming an image of a man, possibly bearded, secreted in a bush and observing Argentinian troop movements through a pair of binoculars. And that would be right. There are several examples of this that have made their way into the public domain in the years following the end of the Falklands War.

But here, I want to discuss something a little bit different.

Ruth Morton at 97 and a photo of her and her sister Minna

Ruth Morton was 53 years old when her sister Minna, an accountant with the British Embassy in Montevideo, Uruguay, asked if she could discuss something of the utmost importance with Ruth. Intrigued, Ruth agreed and listened intently as her sister told her that she was secretly working with British Intelligence to gain information on Argentine military capabilities. And while Minna was doing as much as she could, there was a lot of work to do, far more than one person could acheive. Knowing that she needed someone she could trust implicitly, Minna instantly thought of Ruth. Now her sister knew everything, would she be interested in helping? There was no hesitation. Ruth was on board immediately.

Both sisters were quickly relocated to Argentina with a solid cover story to explain why two Uruguayan citizens with British ancestry had moved to Argentina. In truth, the area of north east Argentina they had relocated to had a long history of cross border movements of people and trade but still, there was a war on and all incomers would have been viewed with more interest than usual. Ruth’s task was to conduct surveillance and report her observations on Argentinia’s Mar del Plata Naval base.

Mar del Plata Naval Base in 1982

Ruth found that getting anywhere close to the base was difficult, the security status obviously raised due to the war with Britain. Undeterred, she rented a small house some distance away but which allowed her to travel to the main bus terminal which was close to the naval base. Ruth spent days discreetly searching the area for a location that would enable her to observe the comings and goings of the base. Finally, she found an abandoned property in a state of neglect but which was sited on high ground and with a clear view of the submarine section of the base.

Day and night, Ruth observed the activities of the submarine section and carefully noted the details. To remain undetected, she crawled under the floorboards of the abandoned house to a position which afforded her a clear view of her target. But the challenges of observing the Argentine Navy’s activities were only half the battle; Ruth also needed to report what she was seeing back to British Intelligence. This involved conducting defensive surveillance to ensure she wasn’t being followed when travelling to or leaving the property. She did this by taking several buses to get her well outside the city where she would then call an Anglo-Argentine contact. For whatever reason, Ruth did not fully trust this contact but had to work with what she had. This contact would then provide her with another telephone number which Ruth would call and speak to an individual with a British accent.

Ruth carried out this activity for months. Months of crawling into a cold, uncomfortable observation post in the Southern Hemisphere winter. Months of taking numerous buses in and out of the city to ensure she wasn’t followed. Months of risking, with every phone call, Argentinian Intelligence laying in wait for her. Months of operating alone, other than the voices at the other end of her phone calls.

Oh, and the capybara.

Ruth stated that one of the more surreal aspects of her work was when, at the beginning of her surveillance operation, a capybara showed up beside the abandoned house. While it couldn’t or wouldn’t follow her into the structure of the house, it remained close and Ruth found herself grateful for the companionship the animal offered in lieu of any human contact. Particularly when, after some weeks, her Anglo-Argentine contact disappeared without a word. Ruth had never fully trusted the individual but was now concerned that he could be working for the Argentinians and expose her and her operation. Unsure of what to do, Ruth nonetheless continued with her mission, reporting her observations direct to the British voice at the end of the telephone. Each day and night, she greeted her capybara companion and crawled into her cramped, freezing position, watching the activities of the naval base.

One evening, Ruth watched 3 submarines move out of the base. This was unusual activity and she knew she had to report it as soon as possible. Risking everything, she made haste to get to a telephone and alert British Intelligence of what she had observed. When the submarines did not return to the base, she knew they had been deployed to attack the British Task Force. Ruth hoped that her report had been in time to mitigate the strike.

Without her Anglo-Argentine contact, Ruth received no money or supplies to sustain her mission. Being a creative and resilient character, she knitted hats during her down time and embroidered Mar del Plata on the front and sold these via a porter at a local hotel. These meagre means at least allowed her to afford some food to keep her going. But while resilient and determined, she could not shake the feeling that the disappearance of her Anglo-Argentine contact might still bring problems to her door.

And she was right.

One midwinter night, without warning, a massive bang struck her position, very close to where she lay hidden beneath the floorboards. Unsure of what had happened, she remained still, waiting for the best part of an hour before moving. Adrenalin pumping, Ruth crawled back out of the old house and saw in the ambient light, the remains of her capybara companion. She determined that the animal had been shot from one of the boats patrolling the sea around the naval base. Ruth doubted that they had randomly spotted a capybara moving on the high ground and decided to kill it. More likely, she reasoned, there was some report of her operating in the area and when the observers on the patrol boat spotted movement, they may have believed it was her and fired. As they’d only fired once, Ruth assessed they believed they’d killed the observer.

It was time to leave.

Ruth conducted a more careful extraction than previously, suspicious of every single glance or look from strangers she encountered on the buses or in the street. On contacting British Intelligence and appraising them of what had happened, Ruth was directed to abandon the post and return to Montevideo. Her mission was over. British Intelligence could not say with any confidence whether or not the Argentinians believed she had been killed but it was better to be safe than sorry. This was also during the first week of June when the conflict was coming to an end, so her work was practically done.

Ruth returned to Montevideo and picked up her life without fanfare or recognition. The Task Force was successful and defeated the Argentine military, freeing the islands and returning them to the locals. Soldiers, sailors, and Air Force personnel returned to the UK and were lauded as heroes. A 53 year old woman who spent months of a freezing winter laying under floorboards of a derelict house spying on Argentinian submarines carried on with her life as though she’d merely taken a day trip to the beach.

It was decades later that Ruth’s story slowly began to emerge. The story of a 53 year old woman carrying out a high risk spying mission for British Intelligence while behind enemy lines. And all alone except for the company of a capybara. A Labrador-sized rodent with charm and personality. That was killed in the belief that it was a British spy carrying out surveillance on an Argentine Naval base.

Sometimes, I will sit and struggle to find something new and interesting to write about. Not often, but sometimes. Then I’ll pick up a thread of something like this, a story that sounds like a work of fiction but, after some solid research, turns out to be as the cliché goes, a lot stranger than fiction. But absolutely true.

I can easily see this story being turned into a movie as it has all the elements already in place for a successful blockbuster. A secret mission. Operating behind enemy lines. A strong female lead. A betrayal by a contact. An attempt to kill the spy. A final extraction to safety.

Oh, and not forgetting the capybara.

James

Identity Crisis

As many of you will remember from my previous posts, I have recently moved house, down the coast to a lovely little village where we are settling in nicely. As part of the moving process, I have been coming across bits and pieces that I’d squirrelled away and completely forgotten about for years. Looking back through this collection of dust-covered objects has been a big hit of nostalgia as well as being quite funny in some cases.

Case in point; various passes and IDs that I’ve held in different countries throughout the years. While there is the almost comical visible timeline of watching my hairline recede from year to year, each pass or badge brings back a flood of memories in the way that a familiar song will transport the listener back to the time and place where it holds the most relevance. For me, these IDs take me back to the time and place where a memory has been locked in because of an activity or event that the pass or badge reminds me of. For example;

The first time I realised that my official, government-issued, ‘all access’ badge meant nothing to the terrified conscripts manning checkpoints in a Middle Eastern city as I was dragged from the car and given a sound beating. For nothing more than pointing out the very clear writing on the pass that stated ‘do not stop or search’. Confidence and humour partnered with the sharing of a packet of cigarettes defused the situation and stopped the car being searched and my guns and comms being discovered. And me being hustled away to a filthy jail cell in one of the city’s many police stations for some seriously enthusiastic interrogations. As I looked at the photo on the pass of the younger me with an enviable hairline, I smiled at the memory of passing out cigarettes to a bunch of scared conscripts who seconds before had inflicted the lumps and bruises on my face and body. Chuckled as I recalled my attempts at jokes at my own expense, my pidgin Arabic causing as much mirth to my captors as the content itself.

Or another time, approaching a coalition checkpoint in a different city, adhering to the rules and processes as I had done dozens of times before; vehicle pass prominently displayed on the dashboard, personal passes held high out the window as my car crawled towards the armed American guards. Only to be opened up on by one of the soldiers, his rounds tearing through the soft skin of the car bonnet and pinging off the hardened components of the engine below. His colleagues bellowed for him to stop and I waited until the situation was under control before I slowly opened my door, hands high in the air still holding my passes, and walked over to the soldiers.

‘WHAT THE ACTUAL F**K GUYS? YOU CAN SEE I’M BRITISH!’

There was a brief pause as the sheepish looking soldiers turned to the shooter in a manner that demanded he explain the situation. With a shrug and a nod of his head towards my car, he simply said, ‘Sorry dude, but we were told to watch out for a suspicious, black BMW.’

I raised my eyebrows. ‘With British vehicle pass and personal access passes?’

He paused and inclined his head to one side while he gave my question some thought. ‘Nah . . . just the car, man.’

Some years later, I recounted this incident to a friend of mine who had also carried out some clandestine work in that area and he laughed and told me that an entire checkpoint had opened up on him and his colleagues and that even as they’d de-bussed and taken cover and yelled ‘WE’RE BRITISH, WE’RE BRITISH!’ They’d been answered with an American drawl from behind the Hesco Bastion fortifications, ‘WE DON’T CARE!’

Or the time in Mozambique where, tired of the standard Friday shakedown from local Traffic Police, I created a simple Word Doc with the insignias of the Interior Minister, my company, and a small form below these motifs. When pulled over for the regular ‘pay the bribe or go to jail’ on Friday afternoon, I smiled, nodded, and produced the document from the glove compartment of my pick up truck, explaining that the Interior Minister had decreed that all police officers had to complete this form with their name, rank, department, details of offence, and punishment given. As the Interior Minister had direct oversight for the safety and security of my company’s contract, he needed to be fully informed of every interaction with local law enforcement. It was, of course, a massive bluff capitalising on 2 main elements; Firstly, the poor literacy rate among rank and file law enforcement, and second, the traditional fear of those in power in an autocratic administration. Within weeks my trusty white Toyota Hi-Lux was being waved through every checkpoint with a sneer of disgust from the disgruntled cops.

My favourite though, is the last pass I came across. It was some years ago when I was on a NATO project, advising and mentoring senior brigade staff deploying to hostile countries. The individual in charge of creating and issuing the access badges for one of the exercises was, unfortunately, a good friend of mine. And in the spirit of good friends seeking any opportunity to get one over on their oppo, this was the badge I had to wear, and answer to, for the two-week duration at every meeting and briefing during the exercise.

As I say, unfortunate that he was a good friend in a position to get one over on me. However, had the roles been reversed, I have no doubt that I would have chortled with pleasure as I created the new access pass for Mr Hugh Jass or something similar . . .

Anyway, a short and sweet post, just fired out as I came across a box of old passes and name badges from various corners of the world and thought I’d share a few of the stories behind them.

As the publication date for my latest book is unavoidably dragged out, here is a second chapter to keep your appetite whetted until we get there! Hope you enjoy it.

A Day Ahead of The Devil. Chapter 2

KABUL AIRPORT, AFGHANISTAN, AUGUST 2021

The C-130 Hercules dropped suddenly and Nick Morgan’s stomach lurched as the big aircraft descended at speed, a defence against any anti-aircraft missiles targeting the plane. Grabbing the webbing straps above him, he pulled himself upright and looked out of the window at the chaos he and his team were about to enter. On the aprons and runways below, he could see people and vehicles moving around in big numbers, far more than any normal airport should ever have. Civilian airline jets taxied past military aircraft with various national flags prominent on their tails. Beyond the walled perimeter of the airport, he could see columns of dark smoke rising up from various locations around the city. 

     Nick adjusted his gaze to look at the area adjacent to the boundary and saw thousands of people corralled into the streets outside the airport entrance. He could imagine the panic and chaos on the ground as each Afghan fought for entry to the airport and the chance to escape the coming Taliban. Dropping back in his seat, Nick thought about the operation ahead and what little information he and the team had to go on. 

     Plucked from their support role in Kenya to the Secret Intelligence Service, SIS, or MI6 as they were known to the wider world, and straight on to a plane to Afghanistan. Their mission directive covered by a rather vague ‘key personnel extraction in advance of hostile actors’ imminent ownership of operational terrain.’ 

     Of course, they’d been keeping up with the news and had received some intelligence briefs from the analysts on the situation in Afghanistan, but these had been general in nature. His team’s operational focus honed on their current area of responsibility, East Africa and the resurgent terrorist threat. That had changed with the call and subsequent online meeting with the Operations Officer, ordering Nick to shelve whatever he and the team were doing and prep for immediate deployment to Kabul. Civilian profile and ready to hit the ground running on arrival. He’d been advised to take vehicles with them, another sign that the situation on the ground was pretty volatile. Some support assets would be available and they’d be working closely with and possibly directly to, British Embassy, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the SIS Head of Station. That convoluted chain of command in itself warned Nick that there were severe challenges ahead for him and the team. When he’d asked the Ops Officer outright how bad the situation in Kabul was, he’d been given the standard euphemism of ‘fluid’; a term usually reserved for situations of utter chaos. 

     Nick looked down the aircraft at the vehicles strapped to the deck and observed his twelve-man team sat either side of them as the C-130 spiralled into its fast, final stage of descent. Most of the guys leaned back in their seats, eyes closed, some listening to music, others lost in their own thoughts staring into space. Every man had spent time on the ground in Afghanistan at some point with most having completed multiple tours. Nick had been deployed to the country regularly since 2001, when he’d been a young Special Air Service Trooper on secondment to the Special Boat Service, the SBS. Originally, he’d felt deflated at the thought of not deploying to Iraq with the SAS, his own regiment. But the intensity of combat he’d experienced on that first deployment with his maritime counterparts had given Nick a depth of experience which rivalled that of even some of the more seasoned special forces soldiers. Since then, he’d returned regularly to Afghanistan in various roles: Conventional assaults, High Value Target detention ops, Surveillance, Support to SIS Stations in Kabul and Kandahar, Operational Mentoring of Afghan Partner Units. Twenty years of operations had taken Nick from Trooper to Warrant Officer second class – WO2, in the Regiment and he was regarded as safe pair of hands in a tight spot. And this current situation, as far as Nick could tell, definitely qualified as a tight spot. 

     His last briefing before wheels-up in Nairobi had been that lists of the personnel Nick and his team were expected to extract from Kabul would be compiled and waiting for them on arrival. But if experience had taught Nick anything it was to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Judging by the chaos unfolding below him, Nick had very little confidence that the lists would be ready and waiting. But he’d been here before. They all had. Dropping into ‘fluid’ situations and getting straight to work, relying on no one else to bail them out when things didn’t go to plan. He doubted that this operation would be any different. The plane bounced slightly as the wheels touched down and the engine sound increased as the C-130 braked hard, moved into a slow taxi and turned. After a minute the aircraft came to a stop and the crew made their way through the plane, unshackling the vehicles and cargo ready for an immediate unloading. Nick stood and stretched as the ramp at the rear of the aircraft was lowered and the light poured in. He picked up his chest rig and pulled it over his head, the weight compounded by the Kevlar plates and magazines of ammunition stuffed into the pouches. He secured the Velcro side flaps and, grabbing his pack and rifle, walked between the vehicles and the fuselage, down the ramp and into the madness of Kabul International Airport. 

     The heat and noise were the first sensations he registered and as he walked down the short ramp, the frenetic activity all around him the second. Aircraft and vehicles moving in all directions and even for the brief few seconds he watched, Nick saw one near miss as a Kam Air jet almost collided with a large bus that was speeding between stands. He lowered his sunglasses against the glare and pulled his satellite phone from his pack and found the pre-set number he was looking for. As he waited for the connection he glanced back at the aircraft and saw his team busy unloading it with the assistance of the Royal Air Force crew. A voice answered his call and he turned his attention back to the task at hand, his reply short and to the point. 

     ‘Hi, it’s Nick. We’re wheels down. Where do you want us?’ He listened as his question was answered and directions given. ‘Thanks, we’ll be with you in about ten minutes.’

     Nick stowed the phone and turned back to brief his team. 

     ‘Okay, once we’re good to go we’ll make our way to the QRF building at the other side of the Military Terminal. They’ve got us an office set aside to use as an Ops Room and Station is going to brief us on current situation.’ 

     The men nodded their understanding and turned back to getting their equipment and vehicles off the aircraft, Nick stepping aside as the first Toyota SUV was driven down the ramp. He looked up as the sound of gunfire carried over the din within the airport and wondered if it was incoming or outgoing. From what he understood, the Taliban were already in Kabul but had not attacked the airport for reasons best known to themselves. The UK had deployed around seven hundred soldiers from 16 Air Assault Brigade, many of them Parachute Regiment, Nick’s regiment before he had passed SAS Selection. That had been one small piece of welcome news; he was bound to know, or one of his team would know, a couple of decent contacts within the Paras that they could call upon for some help if needed.

     A shout caught his attention and he saw Luke, one of his Team Leaders, giving him the thumbs-up that the vehicles were packed and ready to go. Nick moved to the first and jumped in the passenger seat as his team followed his lead and mounted up in the three cars. Nick looked at the driver, a Mobility Troop Corporal from D Squadron.

     ‘You know where you’re going John?’

     ‘Yeah Nick, been out here a couple of times and remember it pretty well.’

     Nick nodded and turned his attention to monitoring the chaos surrounding them as John negotiated around vehicles and aircraft who seemed for the most part to be far less concerned with what was going on around them than the SAS team were. They were approaching a strong barricade and Nick noted that it was British soldiers manning the defences, their vehicles bristling with various calibres of machine-guns ready for any eventuality. John slowed the vehicle down as they approached and lowered his window. Ahead of them, the vehicle-mounted weapons were immediately turned to cover their arrival. Nick watched as a Lance Corporal silently gestured for them to hold up their Identity Cards. Each man held his ID card out of the window and after several seconds of studying them through his rifle’s optical sight, the Lance Corporal beckoned them to approach. When Nick’s vehicle reached the Lance Corporal, their ID cards were checked again, much to the driver’s impatience. 

     ‘What’s the point of checking them twice mate? They’re either good first time or they’re not.’

     Nick could see the Lance Corporal weighing up who these men were with their Army IDs, armed and travelling in civilian clothes, before giving his reply.

     ‘We check twice; once at safe range just in case it’s another suicide bomber, and once close up in case they’re forged. We got caught out with a few of them on our first couple of days. Where you lot headed?’

     Nick leaned over and replied, deploying the team’s basic cover story. ‘QRF building mate, we’re security team for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office staff.’

     The Lance Corporal raised his eyebrows. ‘FCO? Good luck, they’ve been nothing but a pain in the arse for us since we arrived. Maybe you lot can sort them out, let them know we’re not here to run around after them all day.’

     Nick grinned. ‘I hear you. We’ll see what we can do.’

     The Lance Corporal made a hand gesture and a barrier was raised and a heavy truck reversed, opening a gap between the defences that Nick and his team manoeuvred through. As they made their way along the row of buildings, Nick noted the lines of people being hurried towards waiting military and civilian aircraft and for the first time, appreciated that a full-scale evacuation was underway. The tail markings of German, French, Dutch, British and numerous other nationalities on the planes underlining the fact that every country was leaving. A complete evacuation after twenty years of fighting. Although the term evacuation suggested at least some semblance of planning and execution, what Nick had witnessed so far seemed more akin to fleeing. He turned back to the driver as they passed a row of armoured vehicles similar to the ones they had encountered at the checkpoint. ‘Is that SFSG?’

     The driver nodded. ‘Yep. Not sure how many but definitely their wheels.’

     This was another piece of good news for Nick. SFSG, the Special Forces Support Group, were veterans of many high-intensity operations. Allocated directly to Special Forces, the Paras, Marines and RAF Regiment soldiers that made up their ranks thrived on their role in support of SAS and SBS tasks around the globe. Nick was happy they were here as their mobility and firepower would be a massive asset if things got close to the wire for he and his team. The car slowed and Nick turned his attention to the building the driver was turning towards. People were rushing in and out of the entrance and dozens more were spaced around the immediate vicinity shouting into mobile phones, hands cupped to ears to drown out the incessant din of aircraft engines and voices. The car came to a halt and Nick exited the vehicle, grabbing his rifle and rucksack. His team followed suit with each driver locking the vehicle behind them. John nodded towards the building and addressed Nick.

     ‘I’ll stay here and guard the cars and the kit Nick. There’s way too many people milling about and no security that I can see.’

     ‘Good call, John. I’ll see about getting a couple of spare bods attached for admin and security while we’re located here.’ With that, Nick led his team towards the entrance. Around him he identified German and French being barked down mobile telephones, urgency and frustration apparent in every call. When he reached the entrance, Nick pushed his sunglasses up on his head to adjust for the dim interior. Two armed soldiers stopped his team and again, checked their IDs and their mission before allowing them to proceed. Nick waited until all his men were through the check then led them along a corridor bustling with people rushing past or talking loudly into phones. Remembering his earlier conversation, Nick found the stairwell he was looking for and led his team up, cursing as he was bumped by two Polish officers running down the stairs. On the next floor, he found the office he was looking for, marked with a plastic British flag and a printed Foreign and Commonwealth Office sign underneath. He pounded his fist on the wooden door and heard the immediate response of the locks being turned. The door opened slightly and a pale-faced young man in wire-rimmed glasses looked at him. 

     Nick raised his ID card. ‘Nick Morgan and Team. Security. Stuart Ashby is expecting us.’

     The younger man swallowed and glanced at Nick’s tac-vest and weapon before nodding. ‘Yes, okay, he’s in a meeting just now but should be done in a minute. Come in and you can wait.’ He pulled the door open and Nick saw the large office space was crammed with people standing and seated over desks, telephones and computers. The noise was constant with all manner of British dialects competing with ring tones for dominance of the space. Nick and his team followed the young man and he led them to a smaller room where another group of people were furiously typing on laptops or mobile telephones. Some of them glanced up and stared at the newcomers for several seconds before turning their attention back to their own tasks. There wasn’t much free space so Nick and his men slotted themselves between individuals where they could. The young man touched Nick’s elbow to get his attention again.

     ‘The meeting should be over any minute now and I’ll grab Stuart as soon as I see him and point him your way.’

     Nick nodded his thanks and leaned against the wall, looking back into the main room and the frenetic activity within it. From what he could gather from the snatches of dialogue he was picking up, the frantic conversations seemed to be focussed on identifying and confirming who was to be evacuated and requests for more time and assets with which to achieve this. He could also sense something else in the room. Less tangible perhaps, but none the less real for that: Fear. Now that he’d identified it, Nick could see the physical manifestations of fear on the individuals’ faces. The wide eyes, clenched jaws, beaded sweat on foreheads, flushed cheeks. These people were scared. Nick assumed that for most of them, this was the first time they would have been involved in anything like this. The first time that their diplomatic status had come crashing into the real world that their political influencing had created.

     Nick reached into his pocket and retrieved his mobile phone, powering the device up and retrieving his messages. He stabbed out a quick missive and sent it, watching for confirmation that the message had gone before turning the device back off again and stowing it away. It was a deal they’d made with each other not long after they’d got together. That no matter where they were or what they were doing, they would always check in with each other and say where they were and how long they might be out of communication. Sometimes they couldn’t say directly but in veiled speech, they could usually get their location and information across without any security compromise. Nick’s reminiscing of his personal life was cut short when his name was called from the main room, and he turned towards the familiar, upper-class voice as Stuart Ashby, Head of Station for SIS Kabul approached him. Nick regarded the tall, angular figure with the unruly mop of dark hair and extended his hand to meet that offered.

     ‘Stuart, good to see you again. How’s tricks?’

     Stuart Ashby paused and regarded the SAS man with a sardonic smile as he rubbed his tired eyes. ‘Hello Nick. Good to see you again too. Tricks, as you put it, are not good. Not good at all. In fact, to put it bluntly, tricks are fucking awful.’

            Nick raised his eyebrows in surprise at the profanity. He was now under no illusion that things were bad in Kabul. Despite what he had personally observed since his arrival, the erudite and urbane Stuart Ashby’s use of the F-word was the most serious indicator yet that Nick and his team were definitely in a ‘fluid’ situation.

Asset Seven Book Trailer

New Book Trailer for Asset Seven just dropped and it looks great! Share with anyone you know who appreciates a good action/espionage thriller based around real events.

Asset Seven Book Trailer

A Day Ahead of the Devil: Audio Teaser

A small audio taster for the new novel narrated by the brilliant Kerry Hutchinson. Very excited to have Kerry on board for this as he has done some fantastic audiobooks for other authors that I enjoy reading and listening to.

A Day Ahead of the Devil: First Chapter

First Chapter of my new novel scheduled for publication Feb 2022

1

SPECIAL OPERATIONS BARRACKS, GHAZNI PROVINCE, AFGHANISTAN, AUGUST 2021

Her eyes snapped open and she sprang from the thin mattress, reaching for her boots as she flinched at the explosions shattering the night. Heavy machine-gun fire accompanied a cadence of crumps from the mortars that were creeping closer to the small barracks where, until moments before, she had been sound asleep. Boots tied, Samira stood, scrunched her long, dark hair into a ponytail and secured it with a hairband, flinching as the concussion from a mortar round buffeted the thin metal walls of her room. 

They were getting closer.

  Bending, she scooped up her tac-vest and threw it over her head, fastening the Velcro side panels to fit to her body. Running her hands across the pouches, Samira nodded, satisfied that she had her full complement of ammunition and grenades. From the rack under the window, she retrieved her rifle, attached the sling to a clip on her tac-vest, removed and checked the magazine before reloading the weapon and cocking it. Another explosion shattered the windows and she turned her face away for a brief moment before picking up her helmet, giving a sharp tug on the attached Night Vision Goggles to ensure they were secure. As she donned the Kevlar helmet, Samira could hear the urgency in the voices carrying through the chaos of the fighting outside. Making her way towards the door, she smelled smoke and saw, for the first time, the flicker of fire from somewhere near the armoury. The voices were louder now and Samira identified some of them. Sergeant Khan directing a sniper to start finding targets. Captain Noor ordering someone to get air support immediately. Other voices calling urgently for information on the enemy’s positions. 

   She burst out of her accommodation as a mortar exploded among the vehicles parked near the gate, pieces of Humvees now lethal projectiles in their own right as they scythed through the air at speed. Men were shouting as they spilled out from their sleeping quarters where, like Samira only moments before, they’d been resting peacefully. Samira ran at a low crouch towards the familiar figure of Captain Noor as he stood talking into a satellite phone and barking out commands to the commandos around him. He looked up as she approached and lowered the handset to address her.

‘This is not good. Somehow more than two hundred Taliban have entered the city and taken control. It appears that all the other Army and Police positions have been abandoned and the troops deserted. We are the only point of resistance and we must hold. I am trying to get reinforcements and air support but nobody is answering. And we have no radio comms, must have been knocked out.’

   Samira shook her head. ‘I don’t understand, how could they get here so fast without us knowing? Where were the warnings from Headquarters? The Americans?’

     Noor spat. ‘My suspicion is that our Headquarters have abandoned the Province, and us, to save their own skins. I’m just about to call Kabul and get them to support directly.’

     Samira struggled to comprehend the enormity of Noor’s words. The rank and file of the Afghan military had been deserting in droves, abandoning towns, cities and provinces ahead of the Taliban advance. But the Ktah Khas, the Special Unit, her unit, had always fought. Always. It’s what made them different. What had made the difference for the past ten years. As the American draw-down had taken effect it had become apparent very quickly that the Afghan security forces would fail. But the Ktah Khas had not failed. Had continued with the fight. Even now, as the Taliban made great gains through the country, Samira and her fellow commandos had been taking the fight to the enemy. She was brought back to the moment by Noor grasping her shoulder. 

   ‘Go to the roof with the sniper and give me updates on the enemy positions so that I can inform air support if they ever answer. GO!’

   Samira spun and ran towards the main building complex, bounding up the external staircase and on to the roof. In the dim light she could see the sniper positioned at the southern end of the roof and she called out as she approached him, crouching as she ran. ‘Friendlies approaching rear, friendlies approaching rear.’ She slid next to the sniper, taking care not to bump him, lowered her NVGs and activated the laser sighting on her carbine as she spoke. ‘What have we got?’

   The sniper, a new member to the unit, replied quietly. ‘At least two mortar teams out of view, recoilless rifles in closer and four or five groups closing in on all sides.’

   Samira gave a sharp intake of breath. This was a significant force for their small unit to deal with at the best of times. But without air support? Insanity. She shook her head. ‘What’s your ammunition status?’

   ‘Good. I’ve brought spare, might need some help refilling the empty magazines.’ The sniper moved suddenly. ‘Fifty metres, half-left, base of building, four men, rifles and rockets.’ 

  Samira looked through her NVGs, following the sniper’s indication and saw the men at once, noting the shoulder-mounted RPGs or rockets as the sniper called them. Flicking her safety catch to the ‘fire’ position, she moved her green laser over the torsos of three of the men as she spoke. ‘Marking targets.’

  The sniper grunted in affirmation and Samira squeezed her trigger, firing small bursts of rounds into the chests of the men she’d painted with her laser. The suppressor of her carbine muffled much of the noise and she heard the sniper’s shot as he took out the final Taliban fighter. Samira scanned the kill site for several moments to confirm all four were dead. Turning her head to observe the other side of the street, she noticed a furtive movement through the green hue of her NVGs. She focussed her attention on the area but saw nothing further to indicate anything suspicious. Samira continued to monitor the street to her front, looking for targets, determined to engage them before they could get close to the base. The sniper whispered to her.

   ‘They’ve stopped the mortars. Everything is too quiet.’

   Samira nodded her agreement but felt no relief; in her experience such a silence was usually the prelude to a concerted attack. Adrenalin was coursing through her, a familiar sensation as she anticipated the close-quarter combat to come. Below her, within the confines of the concrete walls, she could hear whispered directives being ushered as each commando came to the same conclusion she had arrived at: Something big was coming. She heard Captain Noor speak in English to one of the squadron’s Team Leaders and tell them that there would be no air support coming. Samira realised with a jolt that if Noor was talking in English he must believe the Taliban to be within earshot. Is that possible? She was about to ask the sniper when a riot of noise erupted from all directions as the base came under heavy attack. Chunks of wall exploded as RPGs and heavy machine-gun fire tore into the defensive structures. Mortars rained from above in numbers far in excess of what they had already experienced. Samira tried several times to return fire from her position but the wall around the roof was being shredded by the incredible weight of fire from the Taliban. 

   She rolled away from the wall and crawled to the other side of the roof as green tracer rounds ricocheted in crazed directions off the walls protecting her. At the other corner she took a deep breath and raised her head above the parapet, aiming her rifle. She saw a group of Taliban running across the wide road and engaged them immediately, their bodies dropping on to the hard-packed dirt road as her rifle clattered and bucked in her shoulder. Samira dropped back behind her cover just as a heavy burst of fire tore into the wall sending chunks of stone into the air. She rolled away from the area and tucked herself against another corner, changed magazines and tried to work out what she was going to do. The noise was horrific; a constant barrage of explosions and weapons’ fire tearing the defences of their small base to pieces. She looked up as the sniper sprinted towards her and dropped to her side breathing heavily.

   ‘I can’t do anything from up here, they have us surrounded and pinned down. I’m going down to help with the fight there. Why is there no air support?’

   Without waiting for an answer, he took off at a crouch and made it to the staircase, quickly dropping out of sight. Samira rose to her knees to follow him when a giant explosion rocked the entire building, deafening her and knocking her over. She shook her head and pushed herself up just as a second, more violent blast lifted the entire roof several feet and lit up the sky in a hellish illumination of red and orange. Samira’s breath was knocked out of her as the roof dropped and began collapsing under her feet. With no time to collect her thoughts she staggered towards the stairwell as giant slabs of the roof began falling into the darkness beneath her. She was dimly aware of an increase in the shooting below but focussed on making it to the stairs. As she reached them she noted that they remained mostly intact but were twisted and buckled in some places. In the compound below she saw a giant hole in the perimeter wall and the warped, burning chassis of a car: The standard Taliban suicide borne vehicle bomb. She had no doubt that the explosion on the other side of the base had also been a car bomb. The stairs moved under her weight but didn’t come away from the wall. Samira took the steps several at a time, determined to get to the ground before they collapsed underneath her. They groaned in protest and sagged a little but they held and she gave an unconscious grunt of gratitude as her feet hit the earth of the compound.

   She began running towards the last place where she had seen Captain Noor but dropped to the ground as a stream of bullets zipped past her face. Samira rolled on to her side and raised the carbine up to face the threat. Two Taliban ran towards her, adjusting their aim as they approached but she engaged both men before they could focus on her prone figure, cutting them down mid-stride. Without pause for thought, she was on her feet again, sprinting towards the Operations Office and, hopefully, Captain Noor. All around her, heavy fire was being exchanged at close quarters as the Taliban continued to breach the base. Her ears were ringing but she could still hear explosions and feel the blast waves as grenades and RPGs detonated within the walled compound. A movement caught her eye and in the darkness beyond, she saw a green laser being waved around in a circle and was grateful for the signal that identified the rally point. As she reached the location, she saw it was a small corner that had been fortified with sandbags and whatever solid cover the commandos behind it had managed to grab. Samira clambered over the raised protection and landed on her back before rising to her knees and taking in her new surroundings.

   There were six of her fellow commandos returning fire while several others were sat with backs against the sandbags, yelling into telephones. Samira saw that Captain Noor was among them, alternating between a satellite phone and a conventional one. She could tell by his expression that things were bad; she had never seen concern on his face before but now he was shouting into the phones, frustration and anger contorting his features. She was about to make her way to him when the commando standing beside her dropped suddenly, collapsing to the ground. Samira grabbed him by the straps of his tac-vest and turned him over to check for injury. The blackened eye socket pooling dark blood and the limp body told her the commando was dead, not injured. Taking several of the dead man’s magazines and a couple of grenades from his tac-vest, she stuffed them into her own pouches. She then sprang up, rifle on aim and took the commando’s place. Her first burst cut down a Taliban fighter who was already aiming his RPG at their position. As he fell dying to the ground, the weapon went off and the projectile screamed harmlessly into the night sky. 

   Movement to her left caught her eye and she turned her weapon to face it but lowered her aim as she identified the sniper and another commando sprinting towards her. Samira moved to one side as the men leapt the small barricade and took cover. She turned her attention back to the fight and opened fire on a small group of Taliban who were attempting to reach the stairs. She saw two of them drop but the other pair retreated around the corner of the building and out of sight. Someone stood beside her and she saw that it was the sniper, long rifle up on aim and firing into the darkness beyond. Samira scanned the area for further targets but none presented themselves to her. She could hear Captain Noor talking to someone on the phone and cursing whoever was on the other end. Again, so out of character from a commander they respected for his calm, considered leadership. The sniper bumped his hip against hers to get Samira’s attention.

   ‘He’s not going to get any air support. I spoke to my cousin who is a policeman in Kabul and he told me it’s chaos up there as all the foreigners are flying out of the country.’ He turned his face to look at her. ‘They’re leaving. The Americans, the British, all of them. They are running away.’

   Samira stared at the sniper as he turned his attention back to monitoring his fields of fire. It couldn’t be true. Their American partners had sworn to them that they would always be here. Yes, in smaller numbers but the Special Forces would never leave Afghanistan. Would always be there to provide air support and intelligence to the Ktah Khas. She shook her head; the sniper’s cousin would have heard a rumour and, in typical Afghan fashion, exaggerated the facts to make it more interesting. But the seed of doubt remained. Even when air support hadn’t been immediately available to their missions in the past, a reason and alternative was always provided. This time felt different: Getting no response to their support request was unheard of and for the first time since the battle began, Samira felt a small stab of fear in her stomach. She’d been with the unit for over three years and had been a commando with the British-mentored CF 333 before that. Had fought hundreds of engagements with the Taliban, ISIS-K and Al Qaeda. Been wounded and injured many times over the years but had never believed her death was imminent. Until now. She turned to look at Captain Noor just as the sniper screamed a warning.

   ‘CAR BOMB FRONT ENTRANCE!’

   Samira threw herself to the ground, covered her ears and opened her mouth as the air was split by an apocalyptic explosion and a blast wave that destroyed the cover around the commandos. She shook debris off her back and legs and turned to face the direction the blast had come from, knowing that a follow-up team of shooters would be racing towards them. Around her the other commandos were doing the same and a heavy weight of fire was soon streaming across the compound, the bullets tearing into the dozen Taliban attempting to cross the open ground. There was a lull when the last man fell and Samira used the time to change magazines and take stock of their situation. Looking around the remnants of their ruined position, she saw four bodies on the ground and two injured receiving treatment from the medic. Their cover from fire now consisted of a mere two levels of sandbags, barely enough to lie behind for protection. 

   Captain Noor crawled forward until he was in their midst and Samira moved to one side to give her commander some room as he addressed them quietly.

   ‘The situation is bad. We are alone and no help is coming. No help is coming ever again. The Americans are leaving Afghanistan now. They started last night and will all be gone by today. The world has turned its back on us.’ He paused and shook his head. ‘From what I have learned from my contacts many of our senior officers have also run, taken flights to Dubai and Qatar to go and count their money.’ He spat on the ground before looking up again. ‘The Taliban are expected to reach Kabul by tonight at the latest and will probably take it with little to no resistance. Who will fight them without the support of our allies and no command structure from our own security forces?’

   Samira cleared her throat before speaking. ‘So, what is the plan?’

   The Captain let the question hang in the eerie quiet before replying. ‘There is one piece of good news. All Ktah Khas commandos and other special ops soldiers will be evacuated from the country under the order of the Americans and British. Their families will also be allowed to go with them.’

   A murmur ran through the small group and the Captain raised his hand.

   ‘But . . . the airlifts will only take place from Kabul airport. Nowhere else. And by the time we make it there, the city will be under Taliban control.’

   The sniper faced his commander.

   ‘What do you want us to do, Sir? There’s too many Taliban out there for us to kill. Another attack like that last one and we will be defeated.’

   The Captain opened his mouth to reply but was stopped by the sound of a voice coming from a loudhailer beyond the compound walls.

   ‘Captain Noor, Captain Noor. Can you hear me?’

   The commandos remained silent and focussed on the darkness around them as the disembodied voice continued.

   ‘Captain Noor, please answer me. You and your soldiers have put up a very brave fight. There is no need for anyone else to die here. Let us talk like men.’

   Noor cleared his throat and shouted his reply. ‘I can hear you. Who are you and what do you want?’

   The reply was immediate. ‘Captain Noor, I am Qari Hazrat, commander of over two hundred mujahideen fighters surrounding your base. We control the entire province and it is now part of our glorious Islamic Emirate. By nightfall we will take Kabul and clear it of the infestation of parasites and blasphemers who sit on their gilded thrones. Then the Taliban will rule this Islamic Emirate by the will and laws of Allah and his prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him. So, to keep fighting is not necessary. Surrender, give up your weapons and you will be free to return to your homes if you give your word that you will never take up arms against the rightful rulers of the Emirate.’

   The silence was almost absolute, broken only by the occasional wail from the wounded beyond the walls and the cackling from fires burning within the base. Noor leaned into the group as he spoke in a quiet voice.

   ‘I don’t trust him. I don’t trust any Taliban. I don’t believe he would honour such a surrender. But . . . we can’t defeat them. No one is coming to our aid. I can’t order you what to do anymore. The time has come for each of you to make your own choice.’

   The sniper spoke up, voice raised in frustration and fear. ‘What choice? Surrender or die?’

   The Captain regarded him. ‘There is another option; run. We fight our way out of here, make it to the streets and find a way to Kabul.’

   The sniper shook his head. ‘They have every street blocked, I saw it from the roof. And even if we did survive and get out of the city, you heard him, they have control of the whole country.’ 

   Samira met Noor’s gaze. ‘I’m running. There’s no choice for me. You know what will happen if those animals get their hands on me, no matter what they promise.’

   Noor nodded. ‘I’m running too. We are Ktah Khas; the Taliban know we have been responsible for killing so many of them that I don’t believe they will let us go.’

   The sniper leaned in, hissing his objections. ‘Where are you running to? You really believe you can make it all the way to Kabul? And even if you do, then what? Check in at the Ariana desk, enjoy some green tea in the departure lounge while you wait for your flight? No! Everything will be in Taliban hands, including the airport. I think we should put down our guns and negotiate.’

   Noor’s response was halted by the interruption from the loudhailer beyond the walls.

   ‘Captain Noor, time is running out. I need your answer now. It is a good offer for you and your men. Take it but take it now as I am losing patience.’

   Noor spoke quickly. ‘Show of hands; who is running?’

  Samira looked around and saw that, along with her and Noor, only Sergeant Khan raised his hand. Noor spoke again.

   ‘Three of us. That leaves six who want to negotiate, yes?’

   Samira confirmed the count and nodded at Noor who pointed to the sniper.

   ‘You. You will take charge of the group who want to negotiate. It is better the Taliban hear one voice to avoid confusion and honour their agreement. So, speak to Qari Hazrat now. Let him know you will be coming out of the front entrance, unarmed, carrying wounded and that you accept his conditions.’

   The sniper nodded. ‘What are you going to do?’

   Noor shook his head. ‘No. It’s better you know nothing of our plans in case they change their minds and torture you. If you know nothing you can tell them nothing. Now speak before he changes his mind.’

   The sniper paused for a moment then turned, placing his rifle on the ground and cupping both hands to his mouth as he yelled. ‘We accept your merciful terms and are coming out, unarmed and carrying our wounded brothers.’

   There was silence for several seconds before the reply.

   ‘A wise decision. Come out of the front entrance in single file unless you are helping the wounded. If we see any weapons we will kill you all.’

   The sniper motioned for his group to take control of the casualties. Captain Noor gripped the younger man’s shoulder.

‘May Allah bless and care for you brother. Go now and know we will do nothing until all of you have left.’ With that, Noor grabbed Samira and Sergeant Khan, pulling them out of earshot from the remainder.

‘Plan: Samira, prepare a Humvee for us. Khan, you and I set demolitions to breach the wall on the south perimeter that will give us direct access to the widest part of the road. This should catch them off-guard; they’ll be expecting any escape to come from one of the gates. We can’t move the vehicle until the breach so we will set it, join Samira in the Humvee, detonate the charge then drive through the gap. We go fast and we go hard, try to use as many of the main roads as possible for speed then cut west on the tracks when necessary. If we lose the vehicle we steal another by whatever means we can. The quicker we reach Kabul, the sooner we know what we are dealing with. Questions?’

There were none. Samira ran to the vehicle parking area and selected one of the Humvees furthest away from the damaged ones. The vehicles were always ready for immediate deployment but she went through the checks anyway. The .50 Calibre heavy machine gun was loaded and its complement of ammunition stored as she had expected. Grab-bags of medical, food, water, ammunition for the carbines and batteries for the NVGs and other equipment were all secured in their allocated spaces. Four M-72 light anti-armour weapons strapped against the vehicle framework completed the inventory. After a quick check that the ignition fired, Samira turned the vehicle off, opened the doors and waited. She couldn’t see Noor and Khan from her position but knew from experience the men would be quick. She attempted to slow her breathing, nerves kicking in now that she was not active. She watched as the small column of those who chose to surrender shuffled past her, the healthy supporting the weight of the wounded. Their distorted shadows danced like demons in the red hues from the light cast by the fires and the smoke plumes drifting across the compound. Samira didn’t believe the Taliban would hold up their side of the agreement. They loathed the Ktah Khas. Hated them worse than they despised the Americans even. No, Samira had no faith that her colleagues making their way to the front entrance of the base would ever see their homes again. A Taliban prison perhaps, but not their homes. 

Movement drew her attention and she saw the figures of Noor and Khan sprinting towards her. Noor leapt into the passenger seat and Khan took the rear, the Sergeant pushing himself out of the top cover and taking control of the .50 Cal. He was also watching the movement of the sniper’s group as they made their way towards the front entrance. Monitoring their progress, Khan counted down the distance the group had to cover before reaching the gate and updated Noor and Samira.

‘Thirty metres . . . twenty metres . . . ten metres . . . last man through.’ He dropped back into the vehicle as Noor fired the remote detonation unit. The explosion shook the compound and the flash lit up the entire area as Samira started the ignition and floored the accelerator, propelling the vehicle forward. Using only the infra-red headlights and her NVGs, she sped towards the roiling smoke and dust cloud and saw the wide breach in the wall. They hit the rubble at the base of the breach and the Humvee was airborne for a brief moment before the vehicle landed, bounced then skidded as Samira turned it on to the wide thoroughfare of the road. Khan was already back up and manning the machine-gun as Noor stared ahead and gave clear directions.

‘Road-block, thirty metres, no alternative route. Engage.’

Sergeant Khan opened up with the heavy machine-gun, the large rounds slamming into the vehicles and men blocking the road ahead. Samira aimed the Humvee at a point where two vehicles had been reversed against each other, knowing that they would provide less resistance than the front of a car where the heavy engine block was situated. There was a pause in the firing as Khan dropped back down and secured himself an instant before the Humvee smashed into the roadblock, the big American vehicle sending the smaller cars spiralling away into the darkness, metal screeching and sparks flying. Khan was back up in the turret as the Taliban opened fire from behind them, the booming reply of his heavy machine-gun soon silencing even that token resistance. Noor clapped Samira’s shoulder.

‘Good work. Take the next left then immediate right. After that it’s only a couple of kilometres to the highway.’ He was silent then, his attention focussed on the streets around them as the Humvee sped along the deserted roads. The streets were dark and empty for the most part, the occasional corpse on the road the only sign that any life had existed at all. There was no pursuit and other than the sounds of sporadic gunfire in distant parts of the city, almost no indication of further Taliban presence. Despite this, Samira’s stomach was tensed in anticipation of ambush or encountering another roadblock. Risking a quick glance at Noor she could see from her commander’s intense focus to their front that he was feeling the same way. Samira continued to follow Noor’s directions and breathed a sigh of relief when they burst out of a side street and hit the main highway, the Humvee’s tyres squealing in protest as she spun the wheel to point the vehicle north.North to Kabul.

The ‘New’ Afghanistan?

Khalil Haqqani addressing crowds in Kabul Marcus Yam

Now that the dust has settled somewhat since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the terrorist group find themselves in the strange position of actually having what they’ve been fighting for over the last 20 years.

But they’re not finding it easy.

Their jubilation at the scrambled retreat of their Western foes now replaced by the harsh realities of trying to govern a country that didn’t elect them into position. Taliban commanders, IED makers and fighters now fill national, regional and local authority positions with no background or even experience with which to assist them. Rewarded for their loyalties during the fighting with status and power but with zero ability to perform in their new roles. With no legitimate money coming into the country, salaries and wages can’t be paid to encourage Afghan citizens to take up positions and get the country moving again.

Women sent home and told not to work. That it is demeaning, un-Islamic and the Taliban are saving them from themselves. Females turned away from universities and colleges as, with no women in the workplace under Taliban rule, why do they need any education? The former Afghan Security Forces hiding among trusted family members knowing that they remain targets for Taliban reprisals. Only last week a former sniper from the British-mentored CF333 was gunned down in the street by a Taliban death squad who had been looking for him for weeks.

And what of the Taliban themselves? I’ve said it before but it’s important to remember that there is no one Taliban. Rather, it is a collective of groups currently unified under one common purpose. And now that they have achieved that purpose, we will soon see the fragmentation process begin. Tribal affiliations, ethnic groupings, familial rivalries, are all elements that have more power to divide than unite. There is also the major factor of their implementation of Sharia law. Some Taliban have a far stricter interpretation of this than others and there will be internecine conflict between the leadership and the rank and file about how this is implemented. When these differences become too great to bridge or compromise, the fractures will start.

Those advocating harsh Sharia implementation will clash with the more moderate adherents. Individuals will proclaim themselves as the true believers and, with their followers, break from the main group. They will stake a claim to territories and governance bringing them in direct conflict with their former leadership and contemporaries. Violence will inevitably follow with each side claiming the moral high ground in the conflict. Loyalties and patronage will be called upon to support the warring factions, further dividing the unity of the Taliban.

And lets not forget that the hardline Islamic State-Khorasan or ISIS-K as it is referred to, remains active in Afghanistan. And only too willing to see the Taliban divided and opportunities to extend their own organisation with disaffected Taliban ranks who believe that Taliban governance of the new Islamic Emirate is not harsh enough. The Taliban already knows that ISIS-K see themselves as the true Mujahideen and heir to the throne of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Further fighting between the groups is a given.

And what of Al Qaeda? The reason that, for all intents and purposes we embarked on this 20+ years of military adventurism? Will they gravitate in numbers back to Afghanistan? A Hijra or migration to the new promised land? Safe in the knowledge that the Taliban will be happy to host their presence once again? The truth is that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are linked by the latter’s oath of allegiance, a bay’ah, that stems from the 1990s and was reaffirmed by Al Qaeda in 2016. Evidence of this has been seen recently in online jihadi chat rooms where extremists are openly discussing relocating from Syria to the new Islamic Emirate, already assured of the welcome that awaits them.

It’s tempting to resort to black humour and see the new Afghanistan as becoming little more than a dystopian Disneyland for terrorists and extremists. But that would detract from the suffering and hardships that another group in the country are already undergoing: The Afghan people. Brutalised and exhausted by decades of fighting and violence, it seems that they are set for another extended period of the same. After the Soviet Union left Afghanistan, the warlords tore the country apart as they vied for power and the spoils of the victor. When the Taliban began taking control of regions and implementing law and order, they were initially welcomed by the long-suffering citizens, grateful for the stability this group provided. Such was the wanton destruction and carnage they’d suffered during the warlords’ fighting.

And, in my opinion, history is probably going to repeat itself as the Taliban fractures into dissident groupings battling for control of the country. Battling with ISIS-K, bringing their Al Qaeda allies into the conflict to support and assist. Attracting defeated and disaffected jihadists from around the globe, keen to prove their twisted commitment to their faith. Pulling in the state actors of Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan as the Great Game of history further repeats itself. As we in the West monitor the situation closely for any hint that the country becomes the de facto platform for the planning and launching of terrorist attacks against our nations.

Pessimistic? Perhaps, but in my experience pessimism in these situations usually pans out to be closer to realism than not. To the jubilant Taliban, Afghanistan has added another empire to its list of those who came, saw and failed to conquer. But it would benefit them more to remember this as a lesson rather than cause for gloating. Because the Graveyard of Empires they have inherited has shown through history over and over again, that it is not for the holding. That it favours none, not even the brave.

Not even the Taliban.

Last chopper out of Kabul…

In an article I wrote almost 18 months ago, (https://www.jamesemack.com/have-the-taliban-won/) I covered what I thought a strategic withdrawal from Afghanistan would look like. Back then, the United States was talking about troop reductions in order to return control of the country back to the people of Afghanistan whose Security Forces were now deemed capable of this task. I wrote then that I considered this the beginning of an exit strategy and nothing else. Twenty years, trillions of dollars and thousands of deaths bringing the world’s superpowers to the line in the powder-fine, Afghan sand. I described how I thought the Afghan Security Forces would fail to hold ground, surrender and abandon their positions. How with no Air support, Intelligence provision and joint-mission hand-holding, there was no hope of the Afghans holding back the Taliban advance.

Sadly, all this has come to pass. Even as I write this piece, last week’s Pentagon assessment that the Taliban could take Kabul in a year has been hastily revised to the more realistic timeframe of 3 weeks. With most key provincial cities under or about to be under Taliban control, this is not just a pessimistic, worst-case scenario: It is a very real possibility. The city of Pol e Khomri, a mere 140 miles north of Kabul, was taken by the Taliban the evening before I began writing this. Afghan news footage of soldiers and police abandoning bases and stripping off uniforms in anticipation of Taliban victories showing the sad reality of life on the ground.

The Taliban have capitalised on our withdrawal from Afghanistan with a speed and ferocity that has surprised many. For me, I’m just surprised they’re surprised. Since the Taliban regrouped and re-entered the conflict in the early 2000s, they have consistently displayed tenacity for the long game and the capacity to launch fast, large-scale operations resulting in successes and gains beyond which they were deemed capable. The capture of the city of Kunduz in 2015 a good example of this. The largest city in the north-east of the country with a population of around 400,000. Despite being defended by Afghan and American Special Forces, the city fell quickly and had to be retaken with considerable effort and a major allocation US military assets.

There is also surprise stated at the poor performance of the Afghan Security Forces and their unwillingness or inability to fight the Taliban. There shouldn’t be. In the twenty or so years I have had involvement with the country, I’ve never seen a completely autonomous, Afghan security initiative of any significance make a considerable achievement. It had been tried, and probably many times, but, in my experience and observations at least, there was always a coalition command, control or support element involved. Where handovers of certain elements such as specialist training courses were conducted under capacity-building initiatives, these also failed quickly. We tried, as usual, to emboss our Western democratic template on a third-world fiefdom of warlord states and tribal domains. Took our military and law-enforcement models and applied them to a patriarchal society where for centuries nepotism and familial loyalty determined positions of command and influence.

We tried hard to cut the head off the snake of corruption but found that it was so endemic and accepted as the cultural norm that it was the entire body of the snake we were dealing with. From Ministers to Generals, Colonels to Corporals, it was accepted that an integral benefit of your position was to feather your own nest. Senior military officers created ‘ghost’ units; military bodies that existed only on paper, drawing millions in dollars for base infrastructure, food, fuel, uniforms, weapons, vehicles, training and equipment for entities that didn’t exist in the physical world. Ministers squirrelled away funds intended for government initiatives to offshore accounts in the Middle East in preparation for their exodus once the Coalition cut and run. Which they were absolutely convinced we would eventually do. And in which they have been proved right. And the poor soldiers and policemen at the bottom of the pile? Often not receiving their salaries, or sometimes just a tiny portion of them as the hierarchal rank pyramid above them siphoned off their ‘cut’ before the pittance reached the rank and file? Based in Provinces and towns where it takes them days to return to their home villages? No commonality with the populations of these towns other than a very general nationality?

Demoralised and dejected, it’s little wonder they have no motivation to fight. Our model doesn’t work for them. They needed a completely different system that aligned with their cultures, ethos and identities. Plural. There is no one Afghanistan in terms of population identity. Hazaras, Pashtuns, Baluch, Tajik, Uzbek make up just some of the disparate demographics we tried to mould together under a unified national security infrastructure. When we saw that this wasn’t working particularly well, we came up with other, localised initiatives: Afghan Local Police, Khost Protection Force, Counter Terrorist Pursuit Teams. But still, our best laid plans to replicate our Western models always fell short of our aspirations. I once mooted to a senior coalition officer that we were effectively creating the best-trained militias in the world that would soon just be absorbed into their presiding warlord’s arsenal. He didn’t disagree.

The Taliban don’t fight for a pittance of a salary they might or might not receive. They don’t fight on behalf of a national concept they don’t really believe in. They don’t fight for a government that has no real influence beyond the surreal bubble of Kabul. They fight for their beliefs, twisted and abhorrent as they may be. They fight for their absolute conviction that they are returning Afghanistan to the Islamic Republic it was always meant to be. They have a unified goal, driven by their unshakable faith in their ideology and motivated daily by their successes. Which in turn gives them the affirmation that their god supports their struggle, wants them to win.

The Afghan Security Forces have none of this. And the government knows it. In desperation, President Ghani has formally requested assistance from regional warlords to defend and hold their lands against the Taliban advance; a clear acknowledgement that his Army is defeated. But it appears that even this request is too late to achieve anything more than small pockets of resistance as the Taliban sweep through the country conquering villages, towns and cities.

So as the Taliban look set to return Afghanistan to the Stone Age, the people of the country will once again, suffer horrifically. As our Western superpowers pull away from the sinking ship, other nations are considering their response. Russia, always keen to meddle and exploit an opportunity to needle the West, is taking a cautionary approach, bolstering troop numbers in former Soviet satellite states on the border with Afghanistan to monitor and intercept any potential Islamic fundamentalism from seeping through to Russia’s borders. China has already made clear its intention to have a major involvement in what happens in Afghanistan. The Taliban have confirmed they will engage with the Chinese which seems jarringly hypocritical when one considers the treatment of the Uighur Muslims at the hand of the Chinese State. But that’s part and parcel of the realpolitik that China deploys around the globe in its current advancement of influence.

Inevitably, our withdrawal from Afghanistan and the instant gains made by the Taliban draw comparisons with Vietnam. And not completely without merit: A prolonged, unpopular military campaign in a far-off country. A mission creep with ill-defined, shifting objectives. A determined enemy unconcerned by time constraints, budget, political appetites and changes in administrations. A ‘nation’ whose central government has little impact on much of the country beyond the capital. The deaths of of our bright and best young men and women.The deaths of thousands of innocent civilians.

There is an image that, for me at least, summarises the humiliating end game of the Vietnam War. It is the picture of the last helicopter evacuating the US Embassy in Saigon, a chain of figures on the roof of the building urgently boarding. the final flight as the city fell to the Viet Cong. With the latest Pentagon assessment that Kabul could fall within 3 weeks, is this something we can expect to see in Afghanistan? A Black Hawk helicopter evacuating the last few Embassy personnel as Taliban gunfire and mortars wreak havoc on the city?

I hope not. I would hope that with our UAVs, satellites and network of intelligence assets, advanced warning would enable rapid evacuation before the threat was so close. Which is all well and good for our deployed personnel. But for the Afghans in Kabul there is no last chopper. No Black Hawk to spirit them away from advancing hordes of black-turbaned fanatics. No sitting back in the aircraft seat, eyes closed, the smell of AvGas a comforting reminder they are being transported to safety.

For the Afghans, they are going back in time. Back to a time of brutality and repression that they believed had been consigned to history. Human, Gender, and Equal Rights progression not just halted but reversed. The one lifeline open to them would be that of a power-sharing initiative between the Taliban and an Afghan Government. And the country is in a desperate enough position where such an appeasement may be preferable to the government than the wholesale loss of the country to these fanatics. The problem with this though is that the Taliban don’t need to negotiate. They are in the dominant position, winning every battle and fight as they advance through the country. Why would they negotiate for a part of something that they know they will own completely in the near future?

But maybe that won’t happen. Maybe by some miracle and foreign intervention the siege of Kabul can be avoided. Maybe a coalition of warlords can stave off the worst until international assistance can be marshalled into place. Such assistance probably not being led by the West, our withdrawal commitment leaving no political face-saving possibilities for an about turn.

When all is said and done, I wouldn’t want to see a ‘last chopper out of Kabul’ scenario. Wouldn’t like to imagine the panic and fear of the Afghans in Kabul as our last people flew overhead on their way to safety as the enemy was at the gates. The Afghan’s rage as they felt abandoned by a superpower who hadn’t stayed the course they’d committed to. Or the sight of Taliban flags flying above the very institutions that the deaths of thousands of people, trillions of dollars spent, and twenty years of fighting had been invested to protect.

Have the Taliban won?

While they have been hammering away at it for some time now, the US has announced that they have finally reached an agreement with the leadership of the Taliban to conclude a peace deal. Let’s be clear; this isn’t a peace deal, it’s an exit strategy. We’re almost 20 years into this quagmire and the line was always going to be drawn at some point. When the Special Forces’ Task Forces routed the Taliban from Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11, their post-operational recommendation was very clear; flooding the country with occupying troops would be a rallying call to reinvigorate the Taliban and their jihadist allies. In the UK, however, I believe our collective military and political classes saw an opportunity to redress the historical stigma of our previous defeats in Afghanistan and couldn’t pass up on the chance to achieve this.

I spent over 3 years in Afghanistan with both UK and US military initiatives and observed first-hand the muddled objectives of our militaries deployments. The mission-creep encompassing a frankly embarrassing anti-narcotics focus, and all the way to our endgame status of handover of responsibility to the Afghan security forces for the protection of their own people and nation.

We extended our commitment to the deployment by conjuring up mission statements based upon our western templates of democracy and human rights. Education, Gender Equality, Healthcare to mitigate infant mortality, Anti-corruption, mentoring of Law Enforcement agencies to international compliance levels. And the list goes on.

Afghanistan remains a country where tribal and familial bonds far outweigh the tiny geographical influence that Kabul actually wields. Warlords continue to dominate and forge alliances based solely on personal gain and profit. Our well-intentioned first-world initiatives are not welcome or indeed remotely achievable, outside the ring of protective security around Kabul. Beyond this, and particularly in the remoter regions, life and law have changed very little over the centuries. So when our media reports success stories and heart-warming human interest pieces from the graveyard of empires, they do not reflect circumstances in the greater part of the country. Our twenty years of western intervention barely noticed in many regions.

So, this is an exit strategy that draws a line under the thousands of deaths and trillions of dollars that the 2 decades of this conflict has cost. And the future? Congratulatory soundbites from our Generals and political leaders lauding our achievements and how better off the country is after our ‘assistance’. The reality, of course, will be far more grim. Gloating Taliban will again dominate and control much of the country, initially portraying themselves as the saviours of the people. Then Taliban in-fighting as their collective breaks down and alliances are forged and formed, splinter groups and fragments turning on one another. At the same time, we will witness the collapse of the Afghan Security Forces, their effectiveness and capability nullified by the absent air superiority, intelligence provision and hand-holding that the coalition has been providing. Eventually, a return to full-scale conflict as warlords and jihadists vie for control of the country and the spoils of the capital and provincial cities.

This is not a pessimistic viewpoint by any means. A little-known fact, for me at least, is that when the Russians exited Afghanistan, it wasn’t the scurrying retreat that I had imagined. They actually conducted a comprehensive and documented handover of military bases, equipment and infrastructure as well as training in the maintenance and care required for upkeep. The Russians also sent some of their advisors back to Afghanistan periodically to monitor the condition of the military and the assets that they had retained. The advisers found abandoned bases stripped of every element that could be sold for profit; cables and wiring, generators and heaters, air-conditioners and refrigeration, bedding and furniture, transport and machinery. They reported finding deserted FOBs where the troops had taken flight, choosing to run rather than defend their positions. Senior officers rich in wealth and status having profited from the sale of the equipment and now set up as minor warlords in their own right. The Russians documented all of this, disappointed but unsurprised.

And in my opinion, this is the likely scenario that will repeat itself. First, the more remote FOBs and outposts will be looted and abandoned then occupied by the very forces they had been built to defend against. Without the support and mentoring of the larger western nations, the Afghan forces will have little confidence or motivation to continue putting their lives on the line and will simply down tools and return home. It’s worth remembering that one of the biggest hurdles the coalition faced was ensuring that the rank and file of the security forces actually received their salaries from the respective ministries. It was commonplace for senior officers to keep the entire wages of their police or soldiers for themselves. So, returning to that scenario, it isn’t exactly hard to imagine droves of these service personnel deserting their posts. Or worse, pledging their allegiance to the opposing forces out of self-preservation. And base by base, town by town and province by province, this domino effect will play out.

It is sad to think that the terrible loss of lives throughout this conflict have been sacrificed only to reach an exit strategy and not, as we’d hoped, a better country for the Afghan people to live in. Painful to imagine gloating Taliban governing the bazaars of Sangin and Nad e Ali, the legacy of the dead service men and women all but forgotten as the country rewinds back to where it was pre-9/11. A bitter pill to swallow for anyone who has had any engagement with our involvement in Afghanistan. In the UK, we are still coming to terms with the legacy of our government’s settlement with the republican movement in Northern Ireland. This was another exit strategy that was painted as a peace agreement, handing terrorists and criminals freedom from prosecution deals to expedite an end to violence. But then harassing and pursuing the service men and women who were carrying out government policy in an attempt to portray them as the criminals in the rewriting of the republican narrative. So, the familiar echoes of a ‘peace agreement’ with foes from a long-standing conflict are very fresh in our minds.

Have the Taliban won? I remember back in the early days when I was briefing a Cabinet Minister on one of our operations in a rural area and he asked me whether, in my opinion, I thought we were ‘winning’. I replied that it was an impossible question to answer as there was nothing to win. The enemy wasn’t a structured national army who we could beat into submission and formal surrender. The nation wasn’t responsible for the attacks on US soil and as such couldn’t be held to account and punished for them. And it wasn’t the bad old days of colonialism where we would occupy and govern the country to advance our economic and political goals. So you can’t really win when there is nothing to win in the first place.

And I believe it is the same for the Taliban. An important point to remember is that there is no single Taliban; they are a collective, loosely bound by tribal and familial loyalties that shift and break on a routine basis. Without the focus of a single cause with which to unite these bands of brigands, the collective will quickly unravel and the groups turn upon one another. So can they win? In the end, it comes down to definitions. If by winning, the Taliban determine that the withdrawal of the coalition from Afghanistan was their endgame then by that measure yes, they have won. But this victory is small and will ultimately be very short-lived as their ranks fracture and divide and their movement descends into violent chaos.

Have we won? No; because as I have already pointed out, as well-intentioned as our motives might have been, there was nothing we could actually win in the first place. And the fact that we have now entered into a formal agreement with the very terrorists who planted IEDs and tortured and killed thousands sticks hard in the back of the throat when we think about the sacrifices made over these last 2 decades. So that doesn’t feel particularly ‘winning’ either.

And what of the Afghan people? Have they won? I wouldn’t presume to speak for them but I would suggest that the thought of their country returning to the status of a failed state presided over by feuding warlords probably doesn’t make them feel like winners of very much.

So, no matter whether it’s labelled a peace deal or an exit strategy, after two decades of conflict, loss and sacrifice, there are no winners, only participants. The Taliban may think they’ve won but in truth all they have won is the extension of decades of fighting and the continued destruction of a country that, after 40-odd years of conflict, could do with a bit of a break.

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