Trump asks Putin to help him get out of Iran
In the past two days, the Trump administration has descended into panic mode over the effects of the war in Iran. The indicators?
Major mixed messaging from the President himself: ‘The war is very complete . . . we’ve still got a lot to do . . . we’ve already won but want to keep on winning . . . Iran better not mine the Strait of Hormuz or they’ll be sorry . . . American Navy will provide escorts for tankers to transit the Strait . . . Tanker captains need to grow a set and drive through the Strait . . . Iran bombed the girl’s school . . . I don’t have enough information to confirm the USA bombed the school . . .etc, etc, etc
The not ruling out of boots on the ground with even a brief discussion of re-invoking The Draft, the compulsory conscription of the public into military service. The second this hit the airwaves, instant denials followed with watery explanations of ‘ . . . this was an informal comment made in a personal context . . .’
The start of individuals being thrown under the bus for the Iran debacle: Pete Hegseth highlighting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as the negotiators who convinced The White House that Iran had no interest in curtailing their nuclear weapons program. Despite the Omani mediators stating talks were proceeding very well. The term highlighting here really means publicly announcing the pair as being responsible for America’s decision to attack Iran.
Trump’s call to Israel requesting they stop bombing critical Iranian oil infrastructure. Not because of the toxic rain now falling over Tehran and other cities but because, when the missiles stop flying, Trump wants to negotiate an oil deal with Iran. Because even if the war stops today, oil prices will never recover to previous levels for years.
The American public’s rage over climbing gas (petrol) prices. You can hide bad employment stats and spiralling national debt but everybody sees for themselves, exactly how much the bombing of a country half a world away is costing them when they fill up their tank. And then there’s the public anger over Trump’s attitude over prices: ‘Well, you know, they’re going to go high for a short period . . .’
Trump’s loosening of sanctions on Russian oil trading, hoping to ease some of the pressure on the widening chasm between supply and demand. Unfortunately, this hasn’t even scratched the surface of the problem.
The White House approaching President ‘you don’t have the cards’ Zelensky and requesting immediate help in counter drone warfare.
Trump has a one hour call with President Putin of Russia and asks him if there’s anything he can do to convince Iran to stop fighting.
Once again, when the going gets tough and Trump finds himself in a bind, he calls Putin. I’m not going to enter into the debate as to whether Trump is an active asset of Russia’s because, at the end of the day, his actual status in this regard really doesn’t matter. Formally recruited Asset or useful idiot, the nomenclature matters not. Everything Trump does benefits Russia, or, more accurately, Putin. Even now, Russia needs a resumption of the mass deliveries of Iranian Shahed drones that it swarms Ukraine with. And Trump needs an off-ramp to get the hell out of the quagmire America has been dragged into.
So he speaks to Putin.
Putin who has been providing Iran with intelligence on the location of American military assets in the region. Targeting information. The intelligence needed to kill Americans. When this news broke, the Pentagon blustered something along the lines of ‘well, we don’t know anything about that.’ As if that wasn’t shocking enough, consider Steve Witkoff’s response to being confronted on how he, America’s representative to Russia, is dealing with this vile act:
‘The Russians say they have not been sharing intelligence with Iran.’ Okay Steve, what evidence did they provide to convince you of this? ‘We can take them at their word.’ Oh, cool, as long as we’re treating this as the serious attack on American service men and women that it is. Incidentally, just on the off chance the unimpeachable, honest-as-the-day-is-long Putin is fibbing and has been providing this intelligence, what’s Trump’s plan for addressing this? ‘Let’s hope that they’re not sharing.’
Brilliant. Literally could be a General Melchett dialogue from the comedy classic Blackadder Goes Forth. Except this isn’t funny. Russia assisting in finding US targets for Iran and the Trump administration’s response is to, well, sweep it aside in the interest of walking away from the conflict they started as soon as they can. At least 7 American service personnel dead and 140 wounded, some of these through Russian provided targeting to Iran. If I had a son or daughter in the US military just now I’d be absolutely raging.
Putin has, in a masterstroke, manoeuvred himself into the position of peace broker for the most volatile war on the planet. And with massive gains for himself. Sanctions lifted allowing Russian oil to flow to market. Ukraine tied into the Iran deal to ensure Putin gets exactly what he wants to finish his special military operation. Incredible, isn’t it? The White House begs Ukraine for help in countering Iranian drone attacks while their President agrees to agree to Russian demands in Ukraine if Putin helps get them out of Iran. Like I said, a masterstroke. Putin keeps the war going by assisting Iran with targeting until he can present himself as the only viable powerbroker that can get Trump out of his mess. And what a mess it has become.
18 countries are now involved in this conflict. 18. And that’s not even counting the countries where US embassies or consulates have suffered attacks or acts of sabotage.
Speaking of which, the American public just learned that an Iranian-issued fatwa, directing Shia muslims to attack any American or Israeli targets anywhere they found them, was withheld from the public at the direction of the Trump administration. Not released to FBI or Homeland Security to enable them to escalate defensive postures and prepare responses. When Trump was confronted with this fact, he played it down in typical Trump fashion, ‘well, you know, there’s always these threats and they’re kind of always around . . .’
This is a fatwa. An official decree sanctioned by the religious leaders of the Shia faith in Iran. Calling on all Shia muslims, around 200 million worldwide, to attack American and Israeli interests wherever they find them, in any way they can.
This is very different from a standard extant terrorism threat.
This Iran conflict started during Ramadan, the fasting period observed by muslims worldwide and one of the five key pillars of the religion of Islam. Muslims of all factions were enraged by this and, when a religious figurehead was assassinated in the early stages of the conflict, this anger increased. Unfortunately, this timing and target selection gives the Iranian regime the power to exploit muslim anger worldwide and mobilise a giant network of anti-American/Israeli operatives. When many of these attacks will be lone-wolf or opportunistic, defending against them becomes very difficult as we have experienced ourselves in dealing with islamist terrorist attacks in the UK.
And, if indeed any more petrol were needed to be added to the spectacular fire it has become, The Secretary of Defense/War, Pete Hegseth quoted a bible verse at a press briefing on the Iran war. Coupled with the statements American armed forces personnel have been reporting about their chain of command telling them that this is a religious war and that Trump has been anointed by Jesus and is therefore fighting as mankind’s saviour, this just plays into Iran’s hands. They can point to this and frame America’s attack as a formal christian crusade aimed at exterminating muslims. Another weapon with which to motivate any Shia muslim considering committing to the fatwa.
And today, Iran began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. While, to many, this probably doesn’t come as a particular surprise, the action isn’t the point. It’s the intent. A nation thinking about surrendering doesn’t lay sea mines to close shipping lanes. A nation does that when it’s planning to dig in, hold the line. Iran knows the pressure Donald Trump is under and in another statement today, designated US and Israeli economic interests as legitimate targets. And oil is the economic Achilles Heel that is driving Trump to desperation.
So, Putin is the new powerbroker. And Trump desperately needs him now. But Iran isn’t acting like someone who’s thinking about negotiating. They’re acting like they’ve got a choice. Like they can make decisions about the war for themselves.
Like they’re holding the cards.