Flames and smoke after a missile strike in central Tehran
America and Israel have begun their military operation against Iran. In my article War in a week?, I was confident that the US would strike Iran within a week of posting.
I was a day off.
As I write this response, it seems there is a division of labour carved up between the USA and Israel where the Israelis are targeting and killing Iranian leadership personalities while the US goes after military targets and supporting infrastructure. The Iranian regime has confirmed that their ‘supreme leader’, the Ayatollah Khameini, was killed during one of the first strikes.
Iran’s response has been to fire off missile salvos and drone attacks to what it considers legitimate targets. Israel, obviously. But also regional countries it views as supporting American interests. Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan. Unconfirmed reports of two missiles intercepted as they approached Cyprus then a Shahed drone hitting Akrotiri Air Base. The bulk of these attacks were intercepted and neutralised but some still made it through although casualties and deaths are minimal. This response and the targets would have been anticipated during the wargaming of this operation. Air defences would have been beefed up and augmented in readiness. An oil tanker was struck off the coast and is currently on fire and, probably the most impactful element on the West so far, The Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Why will this closure impact not just the West, but the rest of the world?
Over 30% of the world’s seaborne crude oil transits this waterway. A third of the world’s most essential energy product relies on this small stretch of water to transport the crude across the globe. And around 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) also moves through this narrow strait. So what happens when it closes?
Tankers have to turn around, get the hell out of the area. Insurers such as Lloyds of London refuse to cover any craft moving through the area against the risk of destruction or confiscation. Oil and LNG prices spike, first as a knee jerk then, if the situation doesn’t calm down quickly, climb at an astronomical rate. Which affects, well, pretty much everybody. Today, Iran began dedicated targeting of energy sites in the oil producing countries. Already, the world’s largest LNG producer, Qatar Energy, halted production after Iranian attacks, followed closely by Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil refinery.
As of this morning, Day 3 of the war, oil prices already spiked 10% and natural gas in Europe spiked an eye-watering 50%.
Consider Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. UK energy costs for consumers became 30% higher almost overnight. That’s a lot more money to find at the end of every month. And that’s when only 2 countries affected the global market. This latest crisis literally pulls in the world’s major oil and gas producers and exporters who rely on political and economic stability to guarantee access to markets and unrestricted travel routes. With the war on Iran now in full swing, they have neither.
The Americans could alleviate some of these issues by providing safe escort for vessels, keeping The Strait open and the ships safe from attack or sabotage. But that means consigning American troops and hardware to a long term operation, exposing them as targets to whatever is left of the Iranian regime. I personally don’t think Donald Trump or his Party want this. He wants a clean decapitation of the regime, no more threats of nuclear weapons, and his troops to return to the US.
Which would be nice.
Unfortunately, this is a region where asymmetric warfare abounds and even the might of the US military can run into real problems. Look at the Houthi rebels operating out of Yemen. By summer 2025 this group of 20,000 fighters had destroyed at least 7 American Reaper drones, which cost around $30 million apiece. And although it’s being kept on the QT at the moment, the Americans lost a more advanced drone near Iran only two weeks ago. Lost as in they have no idea what happened to it. Not crashed or shot down, but lost. And this morning we know there have been at least 4 American service personnel killed and 3 fighter jets shot down by friendly fire in Kuwait.
F-15 Fighter Jet crashing in Kuwait
Shia muslims around the world have been protesting the killing of the Ayatollah. In Nigeria, the protests were decidedly anti-American with US and Israeli flags being burned or dragged along the ground. One of Iran’s main proxy forces, Hezbollah, has been trading blows with Israel in Lebanon with dozens killed and thousands fleeing. Shia militias in Iraq are targeting anything remotely connected to American interests. 10 dead pro-Iran protestors were killed at the US Consulate in Pakistan.
American Consulate, Karachi. Credit: AP
So the conflict has not been contained to the Iranian hinterland, but this is something that every Middle Eastern country warned America would happen. Almost 10 countries have now been dragged into the conflict, escalating it to a truly regional war. Qatar has had to send up fighter jets to shoot down Iranian drones as their Air Defences were not sufficiently capable. So we now have a third country’s jets in the sky and probably more to follow. And let’s face it, a lot of these countries might just be pissed off enough to look at America’s hammering of Iran to think ‘You know what? Might be nice to jump on the pile-on while it’s available.’ It’s a very short operational leap from flying defence to assisting in offensive sorties over Iran.
One of the main problems in assessing likely outcomes in this war is that there is no clearly defined goal or endgame. Trump shoe-shuffles between no nukes and regime change depending on what day of the week he’s on camera. The Pentagon had to go on record today admitting that there was no intelligence indicating Iran was a direct threat to the USA.
The killing of Khameini will have limited impact as he was elderly and in ill health so already had a succession plan in place. I know America is hoping for the Iranian population to rise up against the government and push for a regime change more aligned to Western interests and values. Unfortunately, recent history shows us that this never succeeds. Gadafi killed, Libya descends into violent chaos. Saddam Hussein killed, Iraq descends into violent chaos. Taliban leadership defeated, Afghanistan descends into violent chaos. Israel has decades-long history of assassinating Hamas and Hezbollah leaders yet those organisations continued to wage terror with malign effectiveness.
America and its allies are also concerned about Iranian sleeper cells after a very open threat from the Iranian regime as the build up to the war was occurring. Contrary to public belief, Iranian intelligence officers don’t enter the US via the southern border. Particularly in this past year where immediate deportation is pretty much the standard. Iran’s Quds Force use high quality, forged passports and individuals from third party nations to infiltrate target countries through legitimate channels. They also recruit and fund local criminals to carry out activities on their behalf.
Cover of my novel ‘Asset Seven’
In my novel Asset Seven, one of the sub plots revolves around a Quds Force operation to get a dirty bomb detonated on American soil. The methods and tactics described in the story were drawn from real world events and close calls and my knowledge of Quds Force and their capabilities. The use of proximity countries for support and spring boarding of operations, and the exploitation of established criminal networks are all tried and trusted methods the Quds Force employs during its foreign operations. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine that the Iranian regime has already planned and prepared groups for internal attacks against America as well as its overseas interests.
Donald Trump has put a timeframe of a month on this war. And I think his, and his party’s political future really hang in the balance here. This is the first time America has gone to war when the public opposed it. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc all had public support for the initial interventions. Iran does not. Trump also campaigned on a ticket of ‘No more foreign wars’, something his MAGA base felt strongly about and are angry with his about-turn. In two months he’s attacked two countries. Venezuela was explained away as, well, not really a war so it doesn’t count. Iran, however, is the very definition of a foreign war. The Pentagon and The White House are claiming that what the President actually meant when he was campaigning was ‘no more dumb foreign wars’. I guess the term ‘dumb’ is being left open for interpretation . . .
Difficult to predict what’s going to happen with any certainty. America and Israel will win, but what that win will look like is anybody’s guess. The longer the conflict drags on, the more likelihood there is of Trump accepting even a small agreement from Iran that he can frame as victory and pull his armed forces out of the region. He will do this to protect his political future and won’t give a damn whether it suits Israel or not or whether Iran is as degraded as he demanded or not. In this case, Israel could well be left to face a wounded, raging Iran on its own. Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani has already warned that his country has “prepared itself for a long war”.
Be prepared for a very fast media cycle on this one as events continue to unfold. America is actually sending more troops and assets to the region so that alone tells you they want this wrapped up fast.
How the war in Ukraine just turned really bad for Russia
It should have taken 3 days.
3 days for the self-proclaimed strongest military in the world to roll into a country it had already invaded and occupied areas within only 8 years before. The armoured vehicles even carrying victory paraphernalia such as flags and banners ready to display in the captured nation’s capital, Kyiv.
Except it didn’t work out that way.
It’s the 4-year ‘anniversary’ of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine. 4 years. That’s 4 years of constant war and attrition, particularly on the civilian population of Ukraine. When Russia began to realise that it was not going to win militarily, the targeting of energy infrastructure and civilian population zones began. An attempt to degrade Ukraine’s living conditions and force their government to concede defeat.
Except it didn’t work out that way.
The Ukrainians were far more resilient than most, even in the West, gave them credit for. Not only that, but they began to fight fire with fire, striking Russian refineries and gas installations deep inside Russia. This caused instant economic hurt for Russia which, as a petrostate reliant on exports of its petrochemicals, it cannot endure for even the shortest period of time. With 2026 planned and budgeted on an anticipated price for Russian oil that has now dropped, The Kremlin knows it is in deep trouble. It has already raided the social security budget to help offset the cost of the war but that’s a one trick pony; the money has gone and not been replaced. For the first time in recent history, both banks and business leaders in Russia are starting to speak openly about a financial catastrophe that is already underway. When you consider that openly criticising the government usually leads to a short trip out of a ten storey window, things must be very serious for these people to risk their statements.
The Kremlin has also ceased bonus payments to its soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The one incentive which motivated young men from rural provinces to volunteer for the chance of a small sum of money with which to help their families. Worse than that however, and a more telling sign of the economic pain it is suffering, Russia has also stopped the death benefit paid to families and partners of the soldiers who died fighting in Ukraine.
Russian women demanding the return of their sons from fighting in Ukraine. Getty Images
The impact of this was immediate and a public relations headache for the government. Widows and mothers posting on social media about the government’s betrayal. Public marches covered by independent bloggers and state media highlighting the scale of the problem. The Kremlin responded by issuing a directive to military commanders that families were no longer to be notified, that bodies could be left in situ rather than being recovered for burial. That mass casualty events should be cleaned up before they could be filmed and the dead Russian soldiers buried in a mass grave.
CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, assesses Russian battlefield casualties in Ukraine to be around 1.2 million. This also has a massive impact on The Kremlin’s war machine. The meat grinder of Ukraine requires constant feeding and Russia is running out of soldiers with fewer mobilisations occurring and fewer troops available. To counter this, they have come up with some rather . . . creative solutions.
Indian press-ganged men in Ukraine
Last year, a large group of men from India departed for Belarus after responding to a recruitment advert seeking individuals interested in becoming plumbers, electricians, and engineers. The recruitment company in Delhi arranged all the visas, paperwork, and transport for the hundreds of men who replied to the advertisements on social media. Some of the men found it odd that, on reaching the stopover in Russia, their passports and mobile phones were taken but accepted the ‘security protocol’ explanation given by their Russian hosts. That explanation was soon exposed as the lie it was when the men were driven to a military installation, processed into the army, beaten and abused, given a short training course and told they were being sent to fight in Ukraine. And if they refused or tried to run away, they would be shot by their officers as deserters.
The men’s experiences of the front line paint a brutal picture of an army already in decline and snowballing downhill really fast. Command and control enforced by threat of execution. Troops forced at gunpoint to run at heavily defended Ukrainian positions. Constantly hunted and killed by drones. Commanders selling postings to the rear for money. Medical documents which ensured a departure from the war sold for cash by officers. Suicides, mental breakdowns, rife use of narcotics, torture. Several of the Indian returnees broke down when talking about their fellow men being raped by Russian soldiers at the front.
But their experiences, incredibly, are in no way unique.
African civilians fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
Russia’s presence in African countries has provided it with access to large populations of disaffected individuals on the very lowest rung of the socioeconomic ladder. Young men easily duped into scams similar to that of the Indian men. A chance at a better future, qualifications, prospects, money to help your family. Young African men from over 30 different countries duped or scammed into fighting for Russia in a war they know nothing about. The stories which the survivors tell echo and support those which the Indian men relayed. The Africans tell of endemic racism, being openly referred to and deployed as cannon fodder, forced to charge the Ukrainian lines and exhaust the troops before Russian soldiers attacked. Kenyans, Ugandans, South Africans, dying in their hundreds in tactics more reminiscent of the First World War than a modern day conflict.
Captured North Korean soldiers in Ukraine
President Putin of Russia also sealed a deal whereby Russia supplied North Korea with military technical assistance in return for thousands of ground troops to deploy against Ukraine. These foreign fighters too, talked of confusion, brutality, broken logistic chains, lack of resupply.
Cuban recruits with Russian military. Credit – Herrera family
And to add to the international flavour of Russia’s ‘special military operation’, let’s not forget the thousands of Cubans fighting on the front lines. Again, mostly poor young men escaping poverty by answering employment adverts, another pipeline of cannon fodder for The Kremlin to throw at Ukrainian defences. In an interesting development, Cuba’s Foreign Minister confirmed that Russia will be sending oil and other petroleum products to the island nation in the guise of ‘humanitarian aid’. As Cuba imported around 60% of its oil from Venezuela, it has almost run dry since the USA attacked Venezuela and cut off the supply to Cuba. I don’t think there’s much doubt that in return for his magnanimous gesture, Putin will request a formal agreement for troops to be provided to assist Russia.
Ukrainian soldier with Starlink apparatus. Credit – Reuters
So far, I’ve mentioned the Russian economy and the struggle for manpower as being 2 key factors in why the pressure is ramping up fast. But there’s a third, very recent development that is accelerating the pressure in real time. Starlink, the mobile internet developed by Elon Musk, has been the main platform for Russian communications and command, including drone coordination and deployment. When Ukraine and Europe rightly asked why a businessman with US government contracts was profiting from large scale attacks against civilians, Musk was shamed into shutting down the illicit terminals being used by the Russian military. While Both Ukraine and Russia’s military have been using and relying heavily on the platform, Ukraine has officially registered Starlink terminals whereas Russia has sourced theirs through third-party providers to evade sanctions.
The impact was instant.
All Russian battlefield communications were affected. As one Russian officer explained ‘ . . . it was as though someone had turned off a switch across our whole military.’ So, if things were fraught and confusing before, they just got a whole lot worse. But not to worry, the soldiers could always return to their use of Telegram, the messaging App beloved and utilised for both personal and official use.
Except they couldn’t.
The Kremlin, in an attempt to silence the bad news coming from the Ukraine frontlines and the affected families at home, had shut down the App without warning. So now the Russian military fighting in Ukraine are literally resorting to speaking over captured radios which of course, are intercepted and used as targeting lock-ons for Ukrainian drone, jet, and artillery strikes. Russians have been shelling each other’s positions as confusion and panic abound. Resupply and logistic support has all but ceased due to Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine has recaptured over 400 Square kilometres in under two weeks, its biggest gain in two and a half years.
The problem for Russia is that they have no replacement for Starlink. No redundancy was built in as a failsafe or even a backup. So, for the time being at least, they are like a boxer in the ring whose eyes have been swollen shut, waiting to take the blows before they can lash out wildly in the direction they think they came.
So, massive economic pressures that are starting to become public knowledge. Returning soldiers and their families telling the hard truths all over social media. Troop shortages that are being plugged by scams and press-gang tactics to pull in conscripts from abroad. Operational communications blackout showing immediate effect and losses for Russia. There’s very few administrations on the planet that could hold it together with all these factors smashing them at once, let alone a dictatorship ruled by one ageing individual.
And, not that you need it after reading this, but if you wanted any further confirmation that Russia is seriously on the back foot after these recent developments, have a look at this.
Air Defence positions covering Putin’s Valdai residence
The green marker is Vladimir Putin’s lakeside Valdai residence. The red markers are Air Defence (AD) positions sited to cover and protect the residence from Ukrainian drone, missile, or jet attacks. The yellow marker is the S-400 Triumf, Russia’s advanced mobile long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, designed to detect and destroy aircraft, drones, and missiles up to 400 km away. In 2023/2024 there were only 2 AD systems in this area. So, a massive increase to say the least.
And the more worrying aspect of this for Russia?
Ukraine’s Flamingo missiles, in the last week, have struck Russian military targets as far as 1400km inside Russia. Defeating Russian air defences. So, Putin may believe he has a ring of steel around his lakeside residence, but these recent strikes show that Ukrainian missiles are capable of beating those air defence systems.
What’s also noticeable is Russia’s latest stance on the ‘peace’ talks in Geneva involving Russia, the USA, and Ukraine. Demands of totality. No grey areas. Different personalities now representing the Kremlin at the talks. Putin cannot walk away from Ukraine without anything resembling a win. To do so seals his own political and, as this is Russia we’re talking about, probably physical, fate. His country is broke, his people disaffected, the oligarchs he previously controlled now plot against him because they are losing money. The deal Putin struck with the oligarchs was always one where as long as they pledged allegiance to him, he would allow them to make money in whatever manner they wanted.
But they’re no longer making that kind of money.
The deal no longer works for them and they’re starting to look at what might come next. Or rather, who might come next. Because they need that person to be one of them, or at least, one who looks after them.
Many people who read my articles and books regularly ask why the current American administration supports Russia so much. A country representing an ideology that Americans have sent their sons and daughters to fight against since the end of World War 2. Even given Trump’s transactional nature, they can’t understand why the USA suddenly switched it’s support to a country with an economy the size of Italy’s. Russia has openly promised the USA riches of 12 Trillion Dollars. As that’s 6 times the size of Russia’s entire economy, I’m smelling a slight exaggeration here. And its the usual trifecta of access to giant oil deposits, rare earth minerals in the arctic, and access to 145 million consumers.
Except . . .
The oil deposits are old and pretty depleted, the minerals are not definitive in terms of quantity, quality or even viability to be accessed, and as for 145 million consumers? The vast majority of Russians are poor. Really poor. So, expensive American exports are not something with which to build a future economic prediction upon. For America as a nation, I don’t see much upside. For Russia, however, any foreign investment and trade will be welcomed with open arms.
But . . .
Even amongst Republicans in Congress and The Senate, there are some serious dissenters over President Trump’s determination for Russia to succeed in its war on Ukraine. Formerly quiet voices are now openly questioning why their Administration is giving clear support to Russia while practically ordering Ukraine to surrender and accede to all Russian demands. As Trump’s physical and political health declines, these voices are growing in number and volume. So, any trade agreements or deals struck in the near future might become null and void a lot sooner than Russia would like.
With Russia being the authoritarian state that it is, no independent media reporting of note exists. The state running the media as a propaganda arm of the government. So it is rare when political dissent from state representatives is covered in any depth or even reported at all. In December, Grigory Yeremeev, a politician from the Volga region of Russia, delivered a speech in Parliament where he demanded an end to the war in Ukraine and openly stated that it was a direct failure for Putin and his regime. Despite being screamed and shouted at by Putin’s acolytes and arse kissers, he concluded his speech laying the failure of the war and the destruction of the Russian economy at the feet of Vladimir Putin. This week, Yeremeev was charged with the standard ‘discrediting the Army’ for his temerity in daring to make public the true state of Russia as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
In another crackdown on free speech and communications, the Kremlin has also shut down WhatsApp as people were turning to this as an alternative to Telegram which had been shut down earlier. Informed sources, however, believe that the WhatsApp denial is aimed at curbing gatherings and protests that have been steadily growing over the past few months.
Russian National Guard – Rosvgardia
A recent action which supports this theory is the sweeping powers that Putin has granted the Russian National Guard, The Rosvgardia. Formerly a state security force which responded to internal threats to the regime, Rosvgardia is now a major paramilitary force in its own right. It now has its own organic heavy weapons, armoured tanks and vehicles, special forces, intelligence, and immediate combat readiness and is deployed at the order and direction of the president. Putin’s own private army more or less. This month, Rosvgardia was given another set of sweeping powers with which to ‘protect the nation’. Powers that resemble the regime cracking down hard on anything that even smells like dissent against the state narrative. Another sign that all is not well from behind the rusting sheets of what’s left of the Iron Curtain.
Short of tactical nuclear weapons, Putin has thrown everything he has at Ukraine and continues to fail. He has bankrupted his country, repressed its citizens and their free speech, and convinced the US President to back him in winning his war. The only problem with that is he is doing the opposite of winning. Putin is losing. Regularly.
As the title of this article alludes to, the Russian Bear is cornered at the moment. Pressure from three different elements combining to stress test Putin’s command and control. And a cornered Bear is the most dangerous. With nothing to lose, there’s no telling what the world’s foremost dictator will do to hold on to power and continue with his quest to recreate the USSR.
The biggest military deployment since 2003 is happening now
War in a week?
That’s not conjecture or hyperbole. As of today, it’s a very real possibility. Since the bombing of Iranian targets last year, the USA has been engaging with Iran on a two-pronged front. Diplomatic negotiations between White House representatives and those from the Iranian regime, and a steady build up of force in the region to display physical consequences if agreements are not reached.
I, like many others, assumed the situation had reached an impasse when Donald Trump stated that because the Iranians didn’t concede to his demands he was imposing tariffs. That’s right, tariffs. A meaningless measure against a country hardened and accustomed to enduring and evading international sanctions. Trump had obviously become bored with the political stalemate and wanted to move on, bigger fish to fry and all that.
But Israel wasn’t happy.
Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Washington at very short notice bringing with him not the diplomats and negotiators one would expect on such a visit but his hawks. The key military figures who are keying up Israel’s next strike against Iran. A strike that needed simultaneous US action to maximise its effectiveness. Trump bored and moving on from the Iran issue was not something Netanyahu wanted to see. After this meeting, the build up of American military troops and hardware to the region intensified in a big way.
But is it all just a bluff? Sabre-rattling to convince Iran that the US will wield the stick if the carrot fails?
No. Unfortunately, it’s not.
These are the movements of in-flight refuelling tankers from 2 days ago. You don’t send these aircraft as part of a bluff. There’s no point to it. They’re the logistics chain. You send them when you know you’re going to have thirsty aircraft needing to refuel after bombing or attack runs. These are among the last types of aircraft that the USA has been quietly stacking around bases in the Middle East.
Here’s some who got there before:
American attack aircraft, Jordan (Planet Labs)
American Electronic Warfare aircraft, Jordan. (Planet Labs)
Two P-8 Poseidon surveillance planes, two MC-130J special forces planes and three KC-135 Stratotankers, Diego Garcia. (Planet Labs)
Another pointer that strengthens the conclusion of physical confrontation? The deployment of Combat Search And Rescue (CSAR) personnel and aircraft. Again, you don’t send these assets to a contested region unless you’re anticipating the possibility of downed pilots.
U.S. Air Force CSAR HC-130J Combat King II. (Credit – U.S. Air Force)
The aircraft above is a HC-130J Combat King II, a specialized beast which supports CSAR missions in hostile environments. It is equipped for long-range operations, night missions, and aerial refueling of rescue helicopters. The aircraft can refuel two HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopters simultaneously, allowing rescue crews to operate deep inside contested airspace. Two of these aircraft and their crews were recently deployed from their home base in Florida to undisclosed bases in the Middle East.
These aircraft are typically deployed in advance of or during air combat operations to ensure the recovery of downed aircrews. They facilitate U.S. commanders maintaining personnel recovery capability during high-risk air operations, including those involving strikes or sustained air activity over hostile territory. Again, not any point in deploying as part of a sabre-rattling exercise but essential for combat operations.
Interestingly, many of the USA’s allies in the region have refused permission for America to transit their airspace for any confrontation with Iran. Citing fear of imminent reprisal from the regime, this has pushed the US into deploying a massive naval contingent including the aircraft carrier the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest warship ever built. The Ford has been at sea since June 2025 and the Commander of the US Fleet, Admiral Daryl Caudle, pushed back against extending the crew’s deployment even further. To give this some context, if, as the crew has been informed, this extension of their deployment is scheduled until April 2026, it will break post-Vietnam War records for operational duration. But the Admiral’s pushback was ignored and the USS Gerald R. Ford is on track to reach the coast of Israel either today or tomorrow. Once again, unnecessary to keep these poor sailors away from their families for another extended period if all you were doing was sabre-rattling. However, when your Middle Eastern allies close off their airspace for your combat operations, you need to source and use your own launch platforms.
Will the USA definitely strike Iran? Latest statements from the White House claim that the world will know in 10 day’s time. That seems to me to be well beyond the threshold for keeping pre-positioned troops and assets safe. The Iranians have already deployed a Shahed drone against a US ship which shot it down when it got too close. These carrier groups and major military assets forward deployed represent targets for as long as they are in the region. Leaving them in situ for a further 10 days seems irrational and unwise. But then again, another 10 days gives the President of the USA some time to come up with the reason he’s committed the biggest military expedition since 2003 to the region. To date, he hasn’t actually stated the justification for this intervention and in fact, as major news outlets have noted, hasn’t bothered involving Congress or even any public debate or consultation. His critics point out that having to strike Iran again so soon after his last foray only proves that the previous bombings had little to no effect, despite Trump’s claims of garlanded glory.
And the Iranian regime? They’re actually talking a hard game with mentions of Red Lines and unacceptable American demands. Warning that the US could still be dealt a heavy blow despite the size and strength of their military contingent. In private, a law firm in France has seen over a thousand percent increase in visa applications from wealthy Iranians. Russia has confirmed it will take fleeing heads of the Iranian regime and provide them sanctuary in Moscow. Russia has also, in the past week, delivered weapons technology in exchange for gold in a further quid pro quo for Iran’s supply of missiles and drones for Putin’s war against Ukraine. Yesterday Russia also conducted joint naval exercises with Iran near the Straits of Hormuz. While a lot of journalists pointed to this as Russia warning the US not to strike Iran, the Russian element was minimal in number and effect and more just a show of solidarity with Iran.
China is also displeased at what it perceives as unchecked US aggression against one of China’s main suppliers of discounted oil. Importing 1.4 million barrels per day, this is a significant supply chain for Chinese energy. China supplies Iran with missile and air defence technology components that it can’t get anywhere else due to sanctions. I’ve seen reports of a marked increase in Chinese military freight planes landing in Iran since the beginning of February but no further details on what they could have been carrying. Despite this symbiotic relationship, China won’t openly support a direct confrontation with the US but will happily stoke the fires from the background.
The scale and complement of this deployment already shows that this confrontation will be very different to the surgical strikes the USA implemented last year. This is a deployment that is anticipating weeks of operations, not just a day. And you know, maybe, just maybe, it is a bluff but if that’s the case, it’s a very bold call. Very bold. To expose an enormous task force to potential attack in the name of a diplomatic deal? As I said earlier, I’d buy that if it wasn’t for the logistic and rescue support elements deployed alongside the tip of the spear.
So, the biggest military build-up since Iraq in 2003 is happening now and we don’t know whether it’s war or sabre-rattling of the most dangerous kind. We’re told we’ll find out in 10 days.
My gut tells me we will find out, one way or another, a lot sooner than that.
How the UK Government betrayed its Northern Ireland Veterans
Army Officer, Northern Ireland. Credit – MoD
When the Conservative government pushed through a bill titled The Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy & Reconciliation) Act 2023, it seemed like a final end to the persecution and prosecution of Northern Ireland Veterans. The Veterans of Operation Banner, the overarching term for the deployment of British troops over the almost 40 year conflict. Perhaps, former soldiers now in their 60s, 70s, and 80s could finally be at peace knowing that they would no longer be dragged into the media spotlight and taken to court for alleged wrongdoings going back over 50 years. Alleged wrongdoings which had been investigated at the time and the individuals in question cleared. Alleged wrongdoings in which NO new evidence has been discovered or disclosed but yet these British Veterans were still compelled by the UK government to submit to these show trials.
Imagine in 1975, a 50 year old Veteran of The Black Watch (or any regional regiment) standing trial for using questionable force against a platoon of German soldiers in the Reichswald Forest in 1945. No evidence submitted to support the spurious claim but the former soldier nonetheless is taken to a court in Germany to face the prosecution and provide testimony to refute the allegations. German media portray him as a criminal who has escaped justice for over 30 years while the families of the German dead portray their sons as mere defenders of their homes and families. German politicians bluster before the cameras, painting the narrative that Britain let loose an army of murderers and psychopaths who killed and wounded at will.
Except, of course, such a fanciful incident never came to pass. Well, not until the Northern Ireland conflict.
Even before Labour ascended to power in the UK, they’d made it clear that they intended repealing the immunity against prosecution which Veterans now had under the Conservative’s bill. Think about that for a moment; they made this aim clear before they came into power. That alone, I believe demonstrates the party’s strength of feeling on the subject and their disregard and contempt for the soldiers who served their country under the governments that had gone before. And that brings me nicely to my next point.
Why is it always the poor rank and file of the military that are hounded by these vexatious claims? Where the hell are the former Prime Ministers, Defence Ministers, Chiefs of Defence Staffs, Generals, Colonels, being brought before these kangaroo courts? You know, the architects and directors of the military deployments to Northern Ireland. Those responsible for sending a fighting force to quell a civil disturbance and keep the peace. A role that the British military was wholly inadequate of performing, particularly in the early days of The Troubles.
These governments took thousands of young soldiers, many poorly educated and from the lower socio-economic tiers of British society. Young men with limited prospects but for whom the military offered a structured career path. But these young men were trained for combat, fighting, killing. And suddenly they found themselves dumped into the streets of Belfast and Londonderry. Streets that for a lot of them, were not too dissimilar from the poverty stricken areas of their own home towns. A few weeks training provided in ‘riot control’, ‘civil disturbance’, ‘searching of people and property’ was deemed enough to cater for the transition from war fighting to keeping the peace.
Unfortunately, our adversaries were anything but peaceful.
Female IRA member with AR18 in Belfast. Credit – Colman Doyle
The dissonance of walking streets that looked not unlike your own home town but that illusion shattered with the crack of 7.62mm gunshots reverberating around a quiet cut de sac. The gun fired by a woman covering an IRA team caught planting an explosive device. A woman who looked just like the girls you chatted up in your local bars and nightclubs, Dressed like she could be off for a drink with her friends before hitting the dance floor. That image unreconcilable with the heavy rifle almost as long as she is tall. The soldier pauses, initially morally confused at the prospect of opening fire against the girl, then unsure whether or not there is a rule against shooting at women. By the time his adrenalin abates and his decision making faculties return, the woman is gone.
This is not a fight that these soldiers were properly trained or equipped to succeed in. Centuries of sectarian divide and antipathy now concentrated on urban and rural focus points and a prominent target: The British Military. Easy to identify, easy to find, and, initially at least, easy to kill. As the violence and danger escalates, British troops find themselves having to make split second decisions on complex situations. Rules of Engagement, ROEs, become a crucial element to the soldiers’ operations. Guidelines become directives, become formal rules printed on cards for immediate personal access. To sum it up though, the infamous Yellow Card issued to soldiers really still left the final decision to shoot or not with the individual. An individual trained to meet conflict with aggression and violence of action, to neutralise the threat in order to save the lives of he and his fellow soldiers. Years of training in section and troop/platoon attacks, fire and manoeuvre, marksmanship principles. Skills hardwired into the DNA of the infantry soldier. But now expected to switch all that muscle memory off and adapt to an entirely different set of parameters.
City Patrol, 1990s
As time went on, training and preparation for troops deploying to Northern Ireland improved as lessons were fed back from the operational environment. But soldiers’ and Marines’ raison d’être was war fighting, not the complex counterinsurgency they were still being rotated through for 6 month tours. The mission specific training for Northern Ireland was much better in preparing troops for the environment in which they would be operating but the reality on the ground was still surprising to most. Particularly as the enemy had also been adapting as the years passed.
The IRA knew and exploited the military’s ROEs. A gunman opens fire on an Army foot patrol, sprints down an alley and passes the weapon to a waiting teenager who will get the gun away from the immediate area. The gunman well aware the soldiers couldn’t open fire on an unarmed man, his only concern getting to the safe house where a bath and a change of clothing was waiting. Wouldn’t matter that the gunman may have killed or seriously wounded the soldiers he fired upon, he knows the soldiers can’t shoot him if he isn’t carrying a weapon.
For the members of the patrol, their experience of the event is very different. Colleagues and mates killed or wounded, screaming in pain. Getting everyone into cover, sending the Contact Report over the radio, calling for the Casualty Evacuation, CASEVAC. Screaming for immediate first aid to the dying and wounded. Coordinating the follow up and pursuit of the gunman. Trying to shut out the jeers and cheering from the local population making clear their joy at the death and injuries the soldiers have suffered. The patrol commander yelling commands to cordon off the area praying that he’s not sending his men into another ambush or a pre-placed IED. The soldier who had the gunman in his sights devastated that he hadn’t pulled the trigger. But the shooter hadn’t been carrying the weapon by then. And the soldier knew the rules. Knew his ROEs by heart. Knew shooting an unarmed man was not permitted under those ROEs. Even if that man had, only seconds earlier, killed and wounded the soldier’s friends and colleagues. And had now escaped. Probably to be spirited over the border for a soak period before returning back to Belfast to a hero’s welcome.
The IRA however, had no ROEs. Car bombs, culvert bombs, mortars from converted 44 gallon drums, are not weapons designed to minimise civilian casualties. PIRA’s South Armagh Brigade’s improvised giant flamethrower from a converted slurry tanker a good example of this. A weapon of terror if ever there was one. The IRA had amongst its ranks gunmen, bombers, torturers, armed robbers, murderers, snipers, explosives experts, intelligence officers, kidnappers, extortionists, getaway drivers, hide custodians. When ‘peace’ eventually came to Northern Ireland under the guise of The Good Friday Agreement, these terrorists and criminals were finally . . . absolved of all crimes. Even the worst of the worst who remained On The Run, OTR, for the most serious bombings and killings, were provided with formal letters guaranteeing their safety from prosecution. Come home, all is forgiven.
And for the soldiers sent to police this conflict for the best part of 40 years? The threat of court cases being driven by the republican movement to continue the conflict through lawfare rather than warfare. Exploiting the legal system and the UK’s lack of spine in standing up to baseless allegations of incidents long since investigated and the individual cleared. To reframe the narrative of the conflict for new generations and control the quickening media cycle on the emerging internet. But, for the former soldiers, no such amnesty. No Comfort Letter telling them the past was the past and just get on with your life. That, as there was no new or even further evidence provided regarding the respective incident, there was no case to answer.
Alas, this was not, and is not, the case.
Dennis Hutchings at a court attendance
Army Veteran Dennis Hutchings died in 2021 at the age of 80 while going through a trial for a tragic incident that took place in Northern Ireland in 1974. 47 years before. He was already in ill health when the trial process began but this was not even a consideration in deciding whether the trial should take place. Dennis died while the trial and its outcome were still ongoing and I can only imagine the utter dejection he suffered and the disappointment he must have felt for his country and his government.
But there’s also the hypocrisy of these show trials. Old-aged pensioners are being demanded to remember, in detail, things that happened when they were in their late teens or early twenties. And when they struggle to recall these details, it’s labelled as dishonesty, lies.
Gerry Adams leaving court in Dublin. Credit – Tom Honan
Contrast this with Gerry Adams’ statements during a defamation trial in Dublin in May 2025. The 76 year old was being questioned about incidents and details of IRA activities over the duration of the Northern Ireland conflict. On several occasions, Adams made the point that he couldn’t be expected to remember details from so long ago, that there was so much going on, it would be impossible for him to recall specifics. Also, for Adams, there have been several individuals who have independently provided new evidence on crimes that directly implicate Adams. NEW evidence from SEVERAL sources. Not a rehash of rumour and circumspect masquerading as evidence. But Adams, like the rest of the Provisional IRA, seems to have nothing to fear in terms of being brought to justice.
So, for former IRA gunmen and bombers, the Tony Blair government ensured that these men and women need never worry about setting foot in a courtroom unless they commit another crime. But the pensioners and ageing veterans the governments at the time sent to Northern Ireland have no such assurances. And again, none of them are former defence ministers, Generals, or Colonels. No Chiefs of Staffs or General Officers Commanding. It’s always the rank and file, the poor sod on the ground implementing poorly thought out policies in the face of violence and extreme danger. Young men who had to make split second decisions on complicated situations with the minimum of training and experience in the environment.
My new book is currently titled ‘The Kill Chain’, a reference to the fact that when a young Private or Marine pulls the trigger during an engagement, they don’t do it in isolation. There’s a chain of command and control which put the young soldier or Marine in that place and time. A Kill Chain. Yet, it’s only ever the very bottom link on that chain that is ever held to account for the outcome on the ground.
Northern Ireland Veterans have been betrayed by the government. Not let down, not disappointed. Betrayed. The government didn’t have to repeal the Veterans’ immunity under the Conservatives’ bill. Certainly didn’t have to repeal it with such pride and publicity. But they did. And as we enter an era where it’s almost a certainty that major conflict involving the UK is on the horizon and the government is trying to encourage people to join the Armed Forces? Good luck with that one. I’m not going to go into the suffering of the Iraq veterans wrongly accused of misdeeds and whose lives were ruined due to crooked law firms and government apathy. This post isn’t about that, but what it shows is that there is a constant thread that anyone thinking of joining the Armed Forces should seriously consider. A thread that makes it clear that while the government will send you to countries to conduct military operations in line with their foreign policies, don’t count on any support when you really need it.
When terrorists and criminals are free to walk the streets but 80 year old Veterans are on trial for military actions almost half a century before, actions already cleared and settled, there is something seriously bloody wrong with our governments, and the system itself.
At this point in time, I think it’s safe to say that the world, and Europe in particular, needs to accept that Donald Trump is deadly serious about his threat to take Greenland as a territory of the United States. I’m sure a lot of politicians and ministers have been writing it off as just another example of Trump’s bluster and belligerence but they need to realise that this time, it’s different.
Media coverage has reported the motivation for Trump’s current obsession as being the oil and minerals which lie beneath the Arctic island’s frozen plateaux. While this is true, it is really only the headline that misses the key information which, when one reads it, explains why Trump’s statements about taking Greenland should be treated as intention rather than aspiration.
To understand why his administration is determined to ‘own’ Greenland for national security reasons, we need to turn our attention back to the US/China trade disputes at the end of 2025. In amongst the noise of tariffs and supply chain breakage, there was a further issue with immediate and future ramifications for the USA. This was China’s restriction, then suspension, of rare earth elements (REEs) to the USA. For people who even registered these actions at the time, the perception was probably that this meant problems for iPhones, Androids, laptops and computers.
Think bigger. Think about weapon systems. Defence shields. Early Warning apparatus. Advanced fighter aircraft. Submarine sonar. As much as our electronic consumables need these rare earth elements, the weapons and defence systems we rely upon to protect our nations and deter hostile actors rely heavily upon these elements. And at the tail end of 2025 China slowed then halted the supply of these to the USA. With the sudden realisation that their main adversary had a monopoly on these elements, the implications were terrifying to the Pentagon. The supply of elements essential to the production of advanced weapons and defence systems was reliant on relations with China. And at the end of 2025 when China suspended the supply of rare earth elements to the USA, the harsh reality hit home:
China could directly control the quantity and quality of America’s future security and defence.
This, of course, is unacceptable. To any nation. But particularly to one with new imperialist ambitions and an open claim to controlling the Western Hemisphere. So the first response on identifying this reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals was, of course, where else do you source them?
Enter Greenland.
Greenland holds significant deposits of the key rare earth elements utilised in the production of advanced weapons and defence systems. And it’s right on America’s doorstep. Right on it.
And this is why Trump doesn’t push for an increased US presence in Greenland, which, under the current treaty he doesn’t even have to ask for he is actually allowed to just do. It’s why he doesn’t ask for a multinational task force to step up and increase Greenland’s security against the Russian and Chinese aggressions he claims are happening.
It’s why he talks of ownership. Of Greenland as an integral part of the continental United States. Because owning Greenland means owning the rare earth elements that his country needs to produce the advanced weapons and defence systems essential to keeping it safe. No pact, treaty or agreement can provide this so there’s no point even looking at any of these as a potential solution. The US needs to own Greenland to safeguard its national security. Now, I’m no geologist and I’ve read conflicting reports about how easy or not it will be to extract these elements from Greenland soil. But remember that even when the Trump administration knew that the oil in Venezuela was a thick, heavy crude that none of the major oil companies wanted anything to do with, he still went ahead. So, easy extraction or not, he is determined to own the lands where these elements are found.
And that’s why Europe and the rest of the world need to understand that Trump isn’t kidding. He is going to take Greenland, one way or another. He doesn’t care if it breaks NATO, fractures the established world order, encourages multiple new conflicts to erupt. He only cares about securing a supply of rare earth elements for his country’s security and defence and severing the reliance on China.
And here’s an interesting wrinkle for those watching American and world current affairs. With the protests against the ICE raids in Minneapolis making national news in the US every night, the Trump administration has stated that troops from the US Army’s 11th Airborne Division will be sent to the state of Minnesota to assist in quelling the ‘civil unrest’. Why is this interesting or relevant to an article about Greenland, I hear you ask?
The photo above shows soldiers from the 11th Airborne Division on a training exercise in their home base state of Alaska. It’s cold and snowing but they seem well-equipped and confident. And that would be because they are the US Army’s specialist cold weather fighting force. Their nickname is ‘The Arctic Angels’. When the Trump administration could have sent thousands of troops from a state away, why drag these specialist troops all the way down from Alaska to stand on streets and intimidate protestors? My theory? They’re not going anywhere near Minneapolis.
They’re preparing to deploy to Greenland.
Think about it this way. There are already US special forces, NSA, and CIA assets in Greenland, of that there can be no doubt. They will have been working the region for months, covertly preparing the conditions for when the trigger is pulled to take the island. What they need next is boots on the ground in numbers to secure and hold key installations in preparation for the occupying forces to arrive. These would need to be cold weather warfare troops comfortable with fighting and operating in an Arctic environment. Troops like the 11th Airborne Division.
To me, the White House statement about deploying these troops to Minneapolis is actually a clever cover story to mask the operational reason for bringing the troops out of Alaska and into the lower 48. The Trump administration couldn’t risk flying the 11th Airborne Division directly from Alaska to Greenland as they would have to cross Canadian airspace. And Canada is on very high alert to all things American military going on near their borders. The US would quickly have lost the element of surprise. But bringing them south and redeploying from the US? Problem solved.
I would love to be wrong on this assessment but I don’t think I am. All the evidence is already out there in separate pieces but it’s only when you put them together that a full picture emerges. Anyway, we will see sooner rather than later I believe. I don’t see anything that will hold Trump back on this one, buoyed as he is by his recent success in Venezuela.
But don’t take my word for it. Take Canada’s.
Canadian troops on a training exercise
In a ‘I never thought I’d see this in my lifetime’ moment, Canada has just concluded a war-game simulation where the aggressors are, you guessed it, The United States. This wasn’t done on a whim but on the grounds that Canada is integral to Trump’s doctrine of owning or controlling the Western Hemisphere. After Greenland, Canada is under no illusions that Trump will be coming for them next. The simulation showed that Canada could probably hold the might of the US military at bay for no more than two days. Thereafter, organised resistance and insurgency tactics would be implemented to make the cost of occupation too high for the invaders to accept. That in itself is a staggering but very realistic conclusion. That the big bad bully and his gang might overrun Canada initially but they will pay a such heavy toll in the long run that they will be forced to abandon their imperialist northern venture.
So, Greenland is a definite for Trump and for America’s national security, at least as his administration sees it. And sooner rather than later, judging by the increase in the rhetoric and vitriol he is pumping out on his personal social media platform. Today sees Trump scheduled to arrive at the Davos World Economic Forum where he has already lit the blue touch paper by insulting European leaders and publishing personal messages between them and him. As I write this, Trump has just arrived in Davos to a suitably cold reception and it will be interesting to see what impact his personal presence has.
But one thing is certain; he is not going to be dissuaded by anyone, to back off on his claim to Greenland.
Are we as close as we’ve ever been to a new world war?
A world preparing for war.
That’s literally all I see going on right now.
The Baltic states and Northern Europe firmly believe physical Russian incursions to occur at any time now after sightings of ‘little green men’ on the border of Estonia this week. This is a serious revision on the previous estimates of this happening in 2029. The ‘little green men’ refers to armed soldiers without insignia or identifying badges, famously deployed prior to the physical invasions of Ukraine. The Russian drones over European countries, the cyber-attacks against government IT infrastructure, the sabotage and assassinations, the massive increase in Russian intelligence officers operating in European countries have all been going on for some time but the presence of the anonymous armed troops has analysts predicting physical conflict sooner rather than later. To that end, war preparations are in full swing with every element from weapon production and procurement to mobilisation of Reserve Forces currently increasing at pace. An interesting thing I noted yesterday was a repeated statement from both Russian government representatives and the Russian media that the United Kingdom was behind the bombing of Russian airfields by Ukraine. This was a very clear statement, no ambiguity, and seemed to me to have more weight to it than I think was given at the time. I believe that this is Russia framing the narrative – sowing the seeds for justification for future reprisals against UK interests. A very common and oft-used page of the Russian playbook for hostile international interventions.
Despite the theatrics of the much-lauded Gaza peace deal brokered by the USA, Hamas refuses to disarm and Israel stands firm in its position to defeat the terrorist organisation totally. The ceasefire wasn’t event 48 hours old and already had over 30 violations from each side. Hamas immediately executed individuals they deemed as being rivals for power in the region and President Trump posted on social media that if Hamas didn’t stop killing people, America would start killing Hamas. Which seems a little hyperbolic given that both Israel’s intelligence apparatus and kinetic capabilities in this area are second to none. Far, far better than anything the US could offer up. But still, it’s the thought that counts, I suppose.
In the past week, Pakistan has been bombing targets in Afghanistan, including an airstrike in the capital Kabul. Their new alignment with the US has emboldened Pakistan to carry out such actions without worrying about condemnation or consequence. The fact that the US has also made it clear that they want Bagram airfield in Afghanistan ‘back’, perhaps explains why Pakistan has had complete freedom to carry out these bombings. No doubt some kind of accord or agreement has been reached in securing Pakistan’s assistance in the ‘recovery’ of Bagram.
As a result of this alignment, and having been stiffed by Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, India has pivoted completely and aligned itself with Russia and China in a snub to its former ally and trading partner. India’s hand, in many ways, was forced here. Its constant conflict with Pakistan almost reached full-on war earlier this year and would take little for it to escalate once again so with Pakistan now aligned with the USA, India needed to secure powerful allies to hedge against any future Pakistan aggression.
Russia has begun supplying North Korea with sophisticated weaponry including intercontinental ballistic missiles and tactical submarine technology, greatly enhancing the pariah nation’s military capability. In return, Russia is receiving tens of thousands of North Korean troops to feed into the meat grinder of Ukraine, possibly anticipating freeing up some troops from the region to be redeployed to northern Europe. South Korea is naturally alarmed at this rapid capacity building by its hostile neighbour to the north, particularly as the US, historically the main security blanket for South Korea, seems to be disengaging from much of the protections it previously provided.
The president of the USA has been ordering unilateral strikes against boats off the coast of Venezuela, claiming without any evidence or even credible intelligence that they are part of the drugs invasion of the USA. Yesterday, a boat that was struck by a missile from a US drone was reported to have been Colombian and not Venezuelan, and that, for the first time there were survivors. Also yesterday, after a leak to the Washington Post, the American president admitted that he had authorised the CIA to conduct operations in Venezuela and that they have been ‘boots on the ground’ for some time now. Nearly 10,000 American troops in one guise or another are forward positioned in Puerto Rico and other areas of the Caribbean. American B-52 bombers were spotted in the skies above Caracas, the capital yesterday. A US special operations ‘mother ship’ has been in the area for close to a month now. One doesn’t need to be Nostradamus to predict American troops entering Venezuela at some point in the near future unless the Maduro regime rolls over beforehand or buys their way out of the problem.
Ukraine has been putting Russia under severe pressure by targeting Russian energy production facilities. A smart move that has destroyed around 25 – 30% of Russian petrochemical production and refining. Severe fuel shortages causing queues kilometres long are very public spectacles that show the Russian population that the narrative they are being fed from the Kremlin regarding the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine is perhaps not as rosy as their leaders are making it out to be. According to informed sources, the success of this initiative has surprised many in The White House and the assessment made that, actually, Ukraine can win this war. The tone of the American interactions with Ukraine changed almost immediately with President Trump even mooting about supplying (selling) Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Cue Vladimir Putin calling President Trump and congratulating him on the peace deal in the middle east that only Trump could have achieved. An amazing achievement that has ended thousands of years of brutal killings and suffering. That only Trump had the ability to carry this off . . . This flattery, of course worked and there was a 2-hour phone call between Trump and Putin after which the bromance seems to be back on. The pair have arranged to meet face to face at a later date in Hungary, one of the few countries Putin feels comfortable entering without risk of the ICC arrest warrant being implemented against him. It will be interesting to see what today’s meeting between Trump and President Zelensky brings out with Zelensky anticipating Tomahawks but maybe having to settle for another forced ‘ceasefire’ period while Putin deploys his next initiative.
In another, completely out of the blue geopolitical development, after Israel bombed Hamas targets in Qatar, Donald Trump publicly stated that he had signed an agreement with Qatar that, should anyone attack Qatar, then the USA would fight on Qatar’s behalf. This strange commitment led to much head scratching among analysts as to why such a public declaration, particularly from a man who campaigned on a platform of ‘no foreign wars’. The White House also stated it has approved the establishment of a Qatari Emiri Air Force facility in Idaho, a move that has enraged much of the Republican party’s support base and left the rest of the US puzzled as to why. Of course, the cynic might note the ‘gift’ of the $400 million jet to the president of the USA some months before or the murky, billions of dollars in financial deals between Qatar and extended members of the Trump family and friends circle as perhaps the agreed ‘something’ in the something for something arrangement. As a result of this, in yet another knee-jerk reaction, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed an accord whereby one will defend the other against any attack. A ‘lite’, middle eastern NATO Article 5 if you will. Considering the antipathy between Saudi Arabia and Qatar over the years, maybe someone should have seen the Saudi pivot coming as an inevitable self-protection measure.
And there you have it. A world preparing for war. Now, as I’ve been telling anybody interested in the matter, the world has already been at war for decades really. It’s just that because there’s been no traditional peer to peer fighting in western European countries or the USA, much of it goes unnoticed by citizens going about their daily lives. But wars by proxy have been and are being fought, the difference now being that the ‘by proxy’ part is being dropped, the charade of plausible deniability by a nation or state now seen as unimportant or superfluous.
Which is concerning. When countries and nations no longer care to have an ‘off ramp’ in the manner of plausible deniability, they can soon be boxed into a corner and trapped in an escalating spiral of response reprisals and retributions.
What’s interesting to me is that some months ago a friend asked me if we were heading into World War 3. It was around the time of the Israel/US threats against Iran, before the actual airstrikes themselves. At the time I said no; Iran would bluster and rattle their sabres but there would be no real retaliation. On that front I was correct. Unfortunately, between then and now a new world order is emerging based not upon the standard trade agreements but of war and preparation for war. And it’s emerging fast. Really fast.But don’t take my word for it. I know watching international news and current affairs these days can feel like nothing more than doomscrolling. But take a little time to pay a bit more attention to some of the reports and articles mentioning the events I’ve highlighted above. I think you’ll be surprised at just how much is going on and what the knock-on effects are or are likely to be.
Photograph from the movie Extraction: Jason Boland/Netflix
As I mentioned before, we have just moved house down the coast a tad and, even two months in, are still unpacking the various bits and pieces that weren’t regarded as a priority. A while back, after finding them in a box, I did a small piece on the various ID cards and permits I have had over the years and some stories associated with these. Today, while sorting out some of the last unpacked boxes in my office, I came across a box where I’ve kept a lot of my old notebooks. To say it was a trip down memory lane would be an understatement, as incidents and operations long consigned to the mouldy basement area of my brain were suddenly brought back into the sunlight for a retelling. Case in point – a few pages I found in one of the notebooks which I thought I’d share with you, just to give you some idea of how things work for real as opposed to the Hollywood version we’re often presented with.
This story begins several years back with a phone call out of the blue from my friend ‘Mark’ with whom I’d done some pretty intense work with in Africa the year before. A quick hello from Mark followed by an ‘are you busy just now?‘ Then straight into it. Was I up for an immediate deployment to Ukraine? I must admit, I took pause at that, having been watching the Russian invasion the previous few days on the news. But I’d also done a bit of work in Ukraine over the years so had both familiarity and fondness for the country and its people. So, I was definitely interested and asked for more details.
What’s the team? Just me and Mark. Who are we working for? A former special forces chap we’d done some work for before and whom we both regarded as a great guy. What are we doing? Not sure, just get on the ground, get the lay of the land, and see where we can be of best use. Okay, a bit of a fuzzy brief but I’ve had worse, and, like I say, I genuinely liked working for this guy, as did Mark. When do we go? Day after tomorrow. So, a day and a half to square stuff away and get on a flight to the world’s latest war zone. Cutting short a visit to friends and family in England, my wife and I headed back north.
Some quick research on the hoof and I’d sketched out a basic plan of getting to Eastern Poland and working things out from there. A flurry of phone calls and VTCs in between packing and booking flights, rental cars etc, fleshed out some more of the detail. We also got a steer to prepare for journalists and reporters wanting to be taken to the front lines as some had already approached our employer with this request. With an idea of at least one of the tasks we’d be conducting, we decided to rendezvous near London and grab some body armour, helmets, comms, and other equipment for our media clients.
Just outside London, we took possession of the heavy kit and packed it in preparation for our onward flights. It was then we both had to make a very important, and very personal decision: Do we want to be armed? This might sound like an easy decision to make but it’s not as simple as it appears at first glance. The pros of being armed are obvious; protection for yourself and your clients. A useful intimidation tool if required. The cons, however, are also significant. For one, you are carrying weapons in a war zone and as such, you will be defined as a combatant, no quarter asked or given, particularly from the Russians. Second, the minute it’s discovered that you are carrying guns, you’re not going to be able to talk or bribe your way out of trouble, physical confrontation an almost given. Third, once you make the decision to use a gun, it’s all or nothing, no half measures and no going back.
Credit: Oleksandr Ratushniak
Also, we’d now been given another role; Extraction. Rescuing civilians trapped in the fighting and getting them to safety. I remember thinking that I was getting too long in the tooth to be cutting about a war zone with weapons. Nowhere near as fleet of foot as I needed to be if things went wrong and I had to escape and evade after a compromise. That my preferred approach would be to recruit a team of fixers and facilitators who we could deploy to the hardest areas. We would manage, direct, and oversee their deployments on our behalf. Thankfully, Mark had come to the same conclusion and we decided not to carry weapons. With that behind us, we headed to Heathrow with a ton of luggage and the familiar mix of excitement and trepidation as we started our journey east.
On the flight, we both noted some familiar faces among our fellow passengers. A chap I recognised, I’d last bumped into on the Syria/Iraq border the last time we’d seen each other a couple of years before. He was a little cagey about the exact nature of what he was going to be doing, as was I, but we swapped numbers in the event that we might be able to help one another at some point. I saw Mark doing the same with someone he knew from a previous contract. This is the norm for work like this where your network is everything. Every one of us at some point reaches out to an individual they think might be able to help or connect them with someone else who can.
After an overnight stay in Warsaw, we picked up a robust hire car in the morning and headed east. We decided to base ourselves around Lublin in Poland so that we could access the Border Crossing Points (BCPs) into Ukraine. Recce them and identify the protocols and restrictions applicable to each. On checking into our hotel in Lublin, it was apparent that a lot was going on. The hotel was bursting at the seams with refugees, security contractors, embassy staff from several European countries.
Oh, and spies.
Having been involved in clandestine operations for the better part of my career, it was easy for me to identify the spies among the myriad personalities we encountered. This however, was probably the first occasion I can recall where the spies weren’t too bothered that you knew who they were. Sure, they trotted out the usual cover story of some vague embassy political appointment or role, but left it at that, no further details given. An acceptance that, while unsaid, we knew who they were. The reason for this was twofold; speed, and unity of purpose. The invasion was unfolding fast in real time so nobody had the luxury of waiting until conditions were right before acting. And second, every nationality in the area was united in their mission to rescue colleagues or civilians from the fighting. Information and intelligence was being shared and swapped over tables at the bar and in the conference rooms. Spies sharing contact details with contractors like us who were able to move freely and faster than they could. Quid pro quos agreed upon and reciprocated. We made close connections with a couple of intelligence officers from one of the Baltic countries where I had worked previously and had daily discussions in a conference room where we helped them with some real time intelligence we were getting from our nascent network. They reciprocated with introductions to other individuals working in areas we were interested in. Special forces, local intelligence Assets, local law enforcement, all super helpful for our understanding of the threat and freedom of movement conditions.
Over the course of a few days, Mark and I spent every waking hour networking with whoever would talk to us up and down the border. We both reached out to anyone we thought might be able to help us and came up with some terrific contacts who had access to significant networks of their own. One cracking individual I knew was already running some heavy operations and, true to form, when I reached out, he was only too happy to help.
Networking conversation. James E Mack
We recruited a personal friend I’d known from previous work in Poland as our interpreter/fixer/facilitator, and she became a major force multiplier for our tiny team. We spent a lot of time on the border, chatting with guards at the checkpoints, learning the means and methods of entering and leaving Ukraine. This is key in operations such as ours, the right permits and paperwork the difference between getting people out safely or having them trapped at the border with no ability to make it across.
We’d also begun putting together our extraction team, a network of savvy individuals we would run into the hot zones on our behalf. They were already carrying out similar activities on an ad hoc basis but we moulded them into a solid team with all the assets required to run successful extraction operations. An additional bonus was the real-time intelligence they were providing us as eyes and ears on the ground. This enabled us to get accurate intelligence to our media clients and have them amend their travel plans according to the corresponding threat level. A further, more sobering aspect of this was seeing the graphic, first-hand photos and images from our team’s phones as they operated in and around Russian positions.
Missile damage. UA Fixer/James E Mack
It reminded me of how right Mark and I had been in not being armed and deploying to areas where, even with our experience, we would have had serious trouble moving around unnoticed.
Entering Ukraine for the first time, it was incredible to see a country under invasion and preparing itself to repel the invaders as best they could.
Improvised highway defences. James E Mack
In the west of Ukraine, tens of thousands of refugees were passing through the rail and bus stations of Lviv as they made their way to the Polish border. All women and children with hardly any males present in the huge throngs. This made the sight all the more poignant, seeing families ripped from their homes and lives and being forced to flee with only what they could carry.
Border crossing. James E Mack
Trains running at night without lights so as not to be targeted by Russian aircraft. Each carriage crammed with people standing cheek to jowl and sometimes taking as long as 48 hours to make the journey from Kyiv to Lviv. Think about that; a mother with kids crammed into a dark, boiling, sweaty train carriage for up to two days as a war rages around them, rumour and speculation filling the void of accurate information. The fear and terror of not knowing if you would ever see your husband again, or indeed, even your home. Of not knowing what you were going to find on the other side of the border other than safety for you and your children.
This is a photo of a couple of pages from one of my Ukraine notebooks. I remember Mark and I had just left a meeting with a fixer in a cafe in Lviv when we got a call to arrange a fast-notice extraction. Mark took the call and I made the notes, substituting names and ages to mask identities in the event that we were stopped and searched while Mark got us back across the border. You can see from the rushed notes that there were quite a few complications to this extraction.
First there was the issue of the man, a serious medical condition and with limited medication due to the fact all infrastructure in their local area had been destroyed and looted by Russian troops. He would also require an exemption from fighting certificate to get him through any Ukrainian checkpoints as they were arresting males suspected of desertion or avoiding the mandatory conscription. We overcame this by identifying a friendly contact in the Ukrainian military who could get an Army doctor to produce the relevant document and source some medication. Second, was the presence of young children and some of the considerations we needed to implement for their safety and the attrition of a long journey through dangerous territory. The writing at the bottom of the left page that says 3 more PAX? refers to the request from the family that another 3 individuals be factored into our plan for the extraction in the event they could make it. Another vehicle, driver and security, fuel, food, accommodation to source and be ready in the event it was needed.
Again, on the hoof, Mark and I put our plan together. We knew the area the family were trying to leave, east of Kyiv and the Dnieper River, but by speaking to them we learned that they could get to an uncontested area without too much trouble. This area was pretty quiet in regards to fighting and Russian presence and would be easier for our team’s ingress and egress than the family’s home turf. We offered up the choice of Kyiv or Lviv as the in-country safe staging area, from where the family could choose where they wanted to go, but then settled on Lviv and getting them into Poland for full extraction and safety.
You can see from the notes that extractions rely on knowledge of the region, the security situation, communications, and logistics. Factoring in other vehicles for baggage for example. An overnight hotel in Lviv to allow the family to recover from the stress of days of tense journeys across a hostile landscape. A contingency plan to walk the family across the border in the event that the BCPs closed to traffic which they were prone to do from time to time. Bearing in mind we’d seen traffic queues of up to ten kilometres at the border, some planning for helping a family to walk this distance was required. We also needed to factor in vehicle recovery from the Polish side as some of our team were remaining in Poland for a short break.
And of course, money.
How to get money to the team for vehicles, fuel, food, accommodation, bribes for checkpoints/Russians etc. Nothing would happen without people being paid. And bear in mind, good fixers and facilitators are rare, valuable commodities that are in constant high demand and can easily find another operation to join. I’ve seen it happen and in fact, some members of the team we recruited had jumped ship from a company who couldn’t pay them when required. So, prompt, full payment of agreed funds was essential to keeping our operation moving. Where it wasn’t possible for us to pay our guys directly in cash, Western Union transfer of Euros became the standard method at the time although this would probably end sooner rather than later as the country’s financial infrastructure continued to be targeted by the Russians.
Extraction notes. James E Mack
The notes above show an altogether different extraction request. Far greater numbers and with a large American element, hence my point regarding State Department liaison. This was essential in determining both the accuracy of numbers and the identities of those involved. With such a large group of people, transportation was a key issue both in terms of sourcing and which routes would be suitable to move the personnel. As we would be picking up from various locations and not a centralised one, this added greatly to the logistics headache we were experiencing. Where I have blurred a name out, this referred to a key fixer we had used in the past who was now in France but had agreed to jump on board and help with our task. Again, passes, passports, and documentation needed to be in order and you’ll note at the bottom of the page I’ve written TRIM. This is the abbreviation for Trauma Risk Management; having qualified practitioners ready to receive those escaping the fighting and assist with initial counselling and signposting to further help. These people had seen and, for some, experienced, first hand the brutality of the Russian forces and consequently needed more in-depth support than usual.
After a hectic week, our little team decided to put down some roots and rented an apartment in Zamosc, Eastern Poland. A pleasant and very pretty little city that afforded us quick border crossings and easy access to airports and train stations.
Zamosc, Poland.
We grew very fond of Zamosc and our apartment, particularly when we had some downtime and could cook a communal meal, indulge in a glass of nonsense or two, and laugh about some of the more ridiculous things we’d encountered that day. We became so entrenched here that one of our neighbours in the block complained to us about another neighbour who was leaving cigarette butts in the communal spaces. We began jokingly referring to ourselves as the Zamosc Residents’ Association, making idle threats to produce community newsletters, naming and shaming any neighbours who committed anti-social acts. It was also a source of amusement for us that, whenever we were asked by officials or contacts we’d just met, who we were, we’d reply with a serious expression and sober tone of voice ‘The Zamosc Residents’ Association’. I’m not sure whether it was due to translation or people just not wanting to admit confusion, but it was hilarious to us how the name was never questioned whenever we deployed it.
The Zamosc Residents’ Association continued their work in Ukraine and Poland until the requests for extractions began to ease off. Our fixers and facilitators wanted to pivot towards the sourcing and supply of military equipment to militias, volunteers, and private security details, as well as offering the role of drivers and security escorts. So we made the decision to put the extraction pipeline we’d worked so hard to set up into caretaker mode. Maintained and monitored so that it could be reactivated with minimum notice. This was always going to happen and wasn’t anything surprising for us.
But that didn’t mean we were any less saddened by it.
Zamosc Residents’ Association, Zamosc, Poland
From arriving in Poland with just one contact’s telephone number, and a vague mission brief all those weeks before, to the stage where we could get anyone out of almost any area in Ukraine, the Zamosc Residents’ Association were rightly proud of our achievements. The team’s hard work, constant communication, and comprehensive logistics all played their part in the setting up of a cracking extraction pipeline.
So, when I see extractions portrayed in the movies as a one-man, armed to the teeth, kill anyone who gets in his way kind of deal, I take it for the entertainment it is designed to be and not an accurate reflection of the reality on the ground. Real extractions take teamwork and a network of talented fixers and facilitators to make them successful. Both my team and our network were talented individuals in their own right and an absolute privilege to work with. I’ve done quite a few interesting things in the private sector but look back upon my time as a member of the Zamosc Residents’ Association with a real sense of accomplishment and fondness for the people I was fortunate enough to have worked alongside.
How battlefield technology in Ukraine is a game changer for modern wars
In the shadowy world of covert intelligence operations, in the past year, there have been two major standouts for their use of technology to strike a devastating blow to their adversaries. I’ve already spoken about the Mossad ‘Grim Beeper’ pager operation that decimated Hezbollah and what a stunning operation that was from conception to execution. More recently, however, the Ukrainians demonstrated just how impressive their innovation and use of technology has become. Rather than writing about it, take a look at this cracking little video which really explains in simple terms the Ukrainian Operation Spider Web.
I don’t think there is a single intelligence professional in the world who didn’t watch this operation and fail to be impressed. The planning, logistics, training, adaptation, rehearsals, constant alterations, coordination, but, more than anything, the fact that nothing was leaked, is incredible in and of itself. The Russian surveillance net over Ukraine is comprehensive to say the least, encompassing all platforms of SIGINT, ELINT, OSINT, HUMINT etc. If, as the Ukrainians state, this operation was in the planning phase for 18 months, the fact that it wasn’t discovered by the Russians is nothing short of remarkable.
One of the more interesting questions being raised at the moment is: Who knew?
According to President Zelensky, this was an organic, Ukraine-driven operation carried out as preemptive self defence on receipt of intelligence that Russia was planning an imminent bombing campaign. NATO leaders claim no advance knowledge of the operation. And in America, President Trump’s public reaction on his platform of choice was that the USA should have been informed as they should be leading on all decisions. Taken at face value, it would appear that Zelensky assessed Trump’s cosiness with Vladimir Putin as a massive risk to compromising the operation if he informed the Americans. Indeed, in Trump’s subsequent telephone call with Putin, not Zelensky, Trump’s language indicated more sympathy for the Russian position than that of Ukraine. So, again on the face of it, Zelensky was right not to have informed the Americans. But could Ukraine really have pulled off this masterstroke alone?
Many of my former colleagues and associates are split on this. The nay camp point out that the requirement for up to date satellite imagery of the target airfields alone, required external assistance and capabilities. They highlight the fact that the furthest target in Siberia is actually closer to Alaska than it is Ukraine. The aye’s point out that Ukraine has been becoming more and more innovative and successful in their deployment of battle tech as well as their extensive use of HUMINT sources in Russia to aid targeting and surveillance. They reminded me of the fact that very recently, Putin’s helicopter was scrambled to safety after a Ukrainian incursion surprised the Russian’s with it’s alarming proximity to the Russian leader’s location.
The CIA have, until recently, had a very close working relationship with the Ukrainians, in fact, it’s probably the closest partnership I have seen for decades. This changed radically with the Trump administration entering the White House.
Or did it?
The CIA program would not have been pulled instantly. A little known fact is that, from 2015 onwards, the CIA and the USA as a whole, gained a trove of intelligence on Russian capabilities provided by the Ukrainian intelligence services. Key information on leadership, ORBATs, decision making chains, military and cyber technology in the battle space, and lots more. Intelligence that saved the USA billions in collection efforts and streamlining countermeasures, further reducing operational costs. The CIA also used Ukrainian intelligence operatives abroad, posing them as Russians to infiltrate or recruit assets on the CIA’s behalf. In return, the CIA mentored and trained the Ukrainian intelligence services to a very high standard, to the point where the pupils were outperforming the masters as necessity became the mother of invention. On more than one occasion, the CIA had to pull on the reins of their protégés in order to assess the fallout from surprise operations the Ukrainians were about to initiate. The relationship between the Agency and the Ukrainians was formed and fostered by a very capable CIA Station Chief, nicknamed ‘Santa’ by the Ukrainians for his snow-white beard. Santa drove the working partnership and made deep connections with his counterparts who even today, speak very fondly of him.
When the Trump administration had time to look at what the CIA were doing in Ukraine, they were probably stunned at the breadth of the Agency’s involvement. With Trump seeking closer ties to Putin, the CIA was directed to minimise their activity. I’ve heard from sources that, while this was anticipated and many facets of the ongoing operations were reclassified as ‘observing or mentoring’, it was still a blow to the teams on the ground and the Ukrainians themselves. Fast forward to the debacle of Zelensky’s visit to the Oval Office and Ukraine was left in no doubt that the new administration was not sympathetic to their cause. In fact, quite the opposite. And not because Trump et al were concerned about peace in the region, but because Zelensky had previously refused to make a false statement regarding Hunter Biden, former president Joe Biden’s son. Trump had personally requested that Zelensky make a public, formal statement that Hunter had been involved in illegal/underhand business deals in Ukraine under his father’s umbrella. Zelensky refused to compromise himself and inevitably found himself, like anyone else who didn’t kiss the ring, on Trump’s ever expanding shit list.
After the disastrous White House meeting, the USA then switched off all intelligence sharing with Ukraine, leaving the country reliant upon European partners to maintain forewarning of Russian attacks and assist in targeting. After a short period where Zelensky’s public apology was seen as acceptable to the White House, the intelligence sharing was resumed. Where we read ‘intelligence sharing’, we should interpret that as CIA and NSA in the main. So, even though we don’t hear anything about them, it is highly likely an operational force of the CIA remains active in Ukraine. Would they have had any involvement in Operation Spider Web? Undoubtedly. At one end of the scale, it may have just been knowledge of the operation, a courtesy from the Ukrainians. In the middle, it’s possible that satellite feeds, ELINT and SIGINT intelligence was provided to assist in the coordination. At the pointy end of the scale, full inclusion in the planning and execution of the operation. The CIA’s main Red Line in Ukraine has always been no direct killing of Russians. Even to the layman, that phrase is very open to interpretation and is probably taken as a very broad directive.
So, could the Ukrainians have pulled off one of the most impressive military operations in recent history? With all the coordination of tech, transport, targeting, air defence countermeasures, operational integrity over 18 months?
Possibly.
But my suspicion would lead me to believe that they had significant support in this endeavour. Under the Trump administration, I don’t think it likely that any White House approval was asked or given, as, like Zelensky, I don’t trust that the key leaders of the administration wouldn’t have derailed Spider Web or informed the Russians. But support and assistance from the CIA? I’m almost certain this was the case. Would the CIA have had to seek authorisation from the White House for involvement in this operation? That’s a tough one to answer but one I think I can speculate upon based on my own experiences. If the Ukrainians had received intelligence that Russia was about to conduct a heavy bombing campaign and conducted Spider Web as preemptive self defence, the CIA could legitimately claim that this was a justifiable operation in accordance with their Permissions, therefore, no need for authorisation as it fell within current operational directives. That would obviously a very broad interpretation of the rules but . . . not wrong.
Another recent piece of information that hit the press was the fact that Trump does not read his daily intelligence briefs. In fact, since taking office, he’s only read 14. In comparison and in the same time frame, former presidents Biden received 90, and Obama, 63. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s Director of National Intelligence has admitted frustration at the President not taking these briefs which not only inform him, but inform American foreign policy. Taking this fact into consideration, is it possible that Trump missed the initial information that Spider Web was in the offing? It would, undoubtedly, have been couched in very general terms, completely underplaying the nature and scope of the operation. But to a President who, even when he receives the minimum amount of briefings is not particularly interested, the information could easily have gone under his radar. So maybe the CIA did kinda let the White House know something was waiting in the wings, but also knew it wouldn’t be picked up as anything unusual.
Operation Spider Web was a resounding success for the Ukrainians and one that showed the rapidly changing face of the new battlefield. Drone warfare has evolved to become as integral to the fight as a soldier’s rifle, but far, far more effective. And while the UK, Europe, and, to a lesser extent, America, are praising this audacious operation, others have been watching and learning from it also. Rogue nations and failed and hostile states just woke up to the fact that a small fleet of drones costing a few hundred dollars each can wreak havoc costing billions of dollars of damage as well as death and destruction. So, as well as being impressed by the Ukrainian operation and seeking to emulate it against our own adversaries, we have to turn our thoughts in the opposite direction:
The death and disappearance of Captain Robert Nairac GC
Robert Nairac on patrol in Belfast
Northern Ireland. The mid-1970s. The Provisional Irish Republican Army, PIRA, is now structured, trained, and more effective than ever before. The British Army is developing tactics and practices for this new type of warfare being fought in streets and countryside not unlike that of the homes of the soldiers’ patrolling them. Lessons from previous counter-insurgency conflicts such as Kenya, Borneo, Malaysia and others are implemented with a key focus on intelligence. And, more importantly, intelligence gathering. The Security Service, MI5, learning early on that plummy accents and Oxbridge mannerisms didn’t work particularly well when attempting to engage on the streets with hardened West Belfast republicans. The well-trodden route of ‘turning’ arrested IRA men during interrogations bearing less fruit since many of those arrested had now been trained in how to conduct themselves during interrogations so as not to give anything away or provide the police or military with any leverage.
A counter-insurgency operation, like nature, abhors a vacuum. In this case, the gap that the Security Service working in Northern Ireland could not cover was filled by shadowy intelligence gathering units and organisations, primarily from the military. Covert and clandestine operations conducted by men and women dressed in civilian clothes and venturing into the heartlands of PIRA and its supporters. Surveillance, Agent Running, and rudimentary Technical intercepts combining to create an ongoing intelligence picture of PIRA and its members. To PIRA, these undercover soldiers represented the greatest threat to their security and consequently designated them as premium targets for capture and killing. PIRA and these covert units would find themselves confronting one another at various times with no quarter expected or given. The nature and actions of both sides of the fighting at this time providing an accurate and long-lasting moniker that labelled the conflict:
The Dirty War.
There are many examples of horrific and unjustified killings throughout this period but one that comes to mind because of recent developments is that of Captain Robert Nairac GC.
Nairac in Grenadier Guards formal photograph
A captain in the Grenadier Guards, Nairac was something of a golden boy. Boxing Blue at Oxford University, gifted athlete and scholar, personable and charismatic. Nairac’s association with the island of Ireland began well before his military career when he would regularly visit Dublin and the West of Ireland and soak up the language, culture, and history of the country. On joining the British Army, he attended the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst and was commissioned into the Grenadier Guards, the regiment who had sponsored him. It is telling of his deep interest in Ireland that, on conclusion of his training at Sandhurst he undertook post graduate studies at Trinity College Dublin before returning to the mainland and joining his regiment. Nairac’s first tour of Northern Ireland was in Belfast in 1973 and alongside his principal duties of searching suspect houses and arresting wanted IRA men, Nairac also appointed himself as a community relations activist to The Ardoyne Sports Club. This was a social hub in a staunch republican area and, while little evidence is available as to what Nairac was attempting to achieve here, it is likely it was a well-intentioned, if flawed, attempt to foster better relations between the Army and the locals. Looking at it objectively and with, of course the benefit of hindsight, it’s difficult to imagine anyone from the community even engaging with Nairac, either out of innate hatred for the British Army or fear of PIRA reprisals for anyone caught fraternising with the enemy.
PIRA warning to those considering talking to the Security Forces. (Copyright: Bill Royston.)
Highlighting once again Nairac’s deep interest in the Northern Ireland conflict, after his tour with the Guards had finished, Nairac stayed on in Belfast as a Liaison Officer to the incoming regiment. This in itself was by no means unusual as most regiments conducted a similar continuity element to assist the incoming regiment on hitting the ground running so to speak. But it is notable that Nairac volunteered for the role and clearly regarded himself as something of an authority on the operational area and its inhabitants. On his return to the Guards, Nairac learned that the battalion was to be posted to Hong Kong and while this was regarded as a plum posting for any Army officer, it was not where he wanted to be. During his time in Belfast, Nairac had crossed paths on several occasions with ‘the long haired brigade’ – the covert intelligence operators cutting around the city at large. Wasting no time, Nairac volunteered for Special Duties, the all encompassing moniker for the work being carried out by undercover soldiers in Northern Ireland.
The special operations unit to which Nairac was deployed to had several names, both formal and informal but in the main was generally referred to as either 14 Int or 14 Company. 14 Int had developed out of necessity, a collection capability in an unforgiving environment. Its operators trained in all aspects of surveillance in both urban and rural environments. They were proficient in CQB; Close Quarters Battle, engaging and killing multiple targets at close range and under high stress circumstances. Fast and evasive driving. Covert communications. Covert Methods of Entry or lock picking to you and I. In essence, the operators were trained to penetrate the hardest republican areas and get themselves out of trouble without relying on back up or support.
They were also subject matter experts in the personalities and geography of their operational areas. They had to blend in with the local population as they carried out their tasks and so mimicked dress, mannerisms, driving habits. PIRA was always looking for these covert operators and briefed and trained local residents on what to look for and how to report any suspicious sightings in their areas. PIRA would also set up armed checkpoints in the streets, stopping cars and checking IDs, looking for those who didn’t belong in the area.
Nairac’s official position with 14 Int’s South Detachment was that of Liaison Officer between the unit, the SAS, the British Army brigade within the operational area, and the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC). There has been much speculation over the years that Nairac was an SAS officer operating undercover in Northern Ireland but this is not the case. He was never an SAS soldier and is not listed on any SAS memorial as one of their fallen. As part of his liaison duties he did however, work in close proximity with the SAS and was a conduit between the military special forces and the RUC’s Special Branch.
Robert Nairac with an Armalite while serving with 14 Int
It is clear that, from the off, Nairac operated far outside the scope of his liaison duties. He conducted surveillance operations, interviewed young republicans who had been arrested by the RUC, frequented known PIRA haunts. Those in the security forces who worked with or knew Nairac at the time were divided on exactly what it was that he was meant to be doing. And that went for the locals in South Armagh as well. A leading Official rather than Provisional republican, Seamus Murphy from South Armagh, remembered Nairac on patrol in Crossmaglen with a British Army unit. And, while he was in uniform, Nairac stood out from the other members of the patrol due to elements of his attire; cowboy hat, trainers, and carrying a Wingmaster shotgun which he was happy to show to anyone interested. Murphy recalled Nairac engaging with everyone he met and being keen to discuss politics and Irish history of which he was clearly knowledgable. Nairac stood out as an exotic personality; a handsome, posh Englishman with Irish roots who was chatty and funny. But he was still a Brit. Still the enemy no matter how charming and charismatic he was.
Murphy’s recollections gel perfectly with what we know of Nairac at the time. Nairac was openly critical of the military intelligence collection efforts and in particular how they failed to positively engage with the local population. He had concocted a theory about PIRA recruitment and referred to it as a pipeline where the military intelligence efforts wrongly focussed on the middle of the pipeline rather than the beginning. This explains his interest in interviewing young republicans that had been arrested by the RUC. These individuals were at the start of Nairac’s ‘pipeline’ and he was keen to put his theory into practice by engaging and forging good relationships with them.
Nairac also fostered an obsession with South Armagh PIRA, viewing them as the most capable and professional element of PIRA and where the military intelligence focus should be. He felt that South Armagh PIRA were so effective due in part to the insular geography and close knit familial ties of those residing there. Nairac disagreed with conventional Army thinking that South Armagh could not be won by hearts and minds due to the comprehensive support for PIRA in the region. He believed that with a different approach and attitude, hearts and minds could work to turn the people away from default support for the armed republican fight. Nairac recommended that soldiers deploying to South Armagh should be specially selected and trained specifically for working there. He would tell anyone who listened about his theories on South Armagh PIRA and in fact would write an Army paper titled Talking to people in South Armagh. For anyone interested in reading it, the only copy I have managed to source is in an Appendix in Toby Harnden’s seminal work ‘Bandit Country: The IRA & South Armagh.’
It is, in my opinion, well-intentioned but juvenile in both content and context. There are elements of the paper which put forward some minor valid suggestions but in the main, it’s pretty naive. There’s a reason that, almost 30 years after Nairac’s death, South Armagh was still the enclave of republican resistance. Hearts and minds were never going to be possible in bandit country regardless of who was leading the charge. But Nairac was clear that it should be him to lead the charge and turn the residents of South Armagh away from PIRA and their support for the armed struggle. He also wrote in detail about the type of officer needed to carry out covert intelligence gathering in South Armagh. Their background, personality, training and skills. How they should operate and conduct themselves. At the end of his recommendations he stated that such an officer probably only had a 50% chance of surviving such an operational tour. Whether by accident or design, Nairac had just written his own job description.
The accountability of Nairac’s operational behaviour seemed vague to those who worked with him. No one quite knew who was authorising or had oversight of Nairac’s actions. Even the SAS men raised their eyebrows at some of his activities. Solo missions into the badlands of South Armagh. In uniform one day then civvies the next in the same area. On more than one occasion, a Crossmaglen local accustomed to seeing the flamboyant Nairac in uniform would observe him in another town in civilian clothing masquerading as someone else. He was also known to have headed out on patrol dressed and armed as a PIRA member, complete with Thompson sub-machine gun and easter lily on his head dress.
Nairac with IRA weapon and head dress
What was becoming clearer was that Nairac was conducting unilateral operations, informing Command of little more than his movements. On more than one occasion, SAS soldiers reported their issues regarding Nairac’s operational activities but found their concerns closed down without explanation. Opinion was also divided on the actual value of intelligence that Nairac was providing. Senior officers and hierarchy seemingly awed by Nairac’s actions and accepting of whatever he pushed up the chain. At the ground level however, there were far more challenges to the narrative of the lone wolf doing what nobody else could. Among the SAS, with whom Nairac worked alongside, there was a respect for his bravery as a lone operator working in the highest threat areas. But there was also the recognition that he was a maverick, operating in ways that even experienced SAS soldiers wouldn’t countenance.
Nairac had also started frequenting hardcore republican haunts in South Armagh, often alone and with nothing more than a perfunctory radio message back to base to inform them of his whereabouts. He would get up to sing in bars and pubs, and was noted for having a good voice and the ability to carry a tune. Favourite Irish folk songs along with nostalgic republican ballads, he was a popular singer and often found the band requesting him for another song. But once again he was drawing attention to himself in a major way. The complete opposite of what a covert intelligence operator should be doing. He affected a Belfast accent and assumed the identity of one Danny Mcerlaine. There was a real Danny Mcerlaine who Nairac was aware of as being on the run in Ireland at the time and unlikely to be putting his head above the parapet anytime soon. Mcerlaine was a member of the Official IRA, the organisation from whom PIRA bitterly split from in the early 1970s so this gave Nairac some republican credentials to anyone interested.
And interested they were.
Questions were asked about the tousle-haired, handsome mechanic from the Ardoyne. It wasn’t usual for Belfast men to show up in the pubs and bars of rural South Armagh with the frequency that Nairac did. Counter-intuitively, this might actually be what stopped him being compromised for such a length of time as, with the best will in the world, no Brit could possibly master the nuances and syntax of a West Belfast accent to the point of fooling a native. But to those who had limited contact with people from West Belfast, he probably got away with his charade for far longer than he should have. Which, in my opinion emboldened Nairac and encouraged him to push his already minimal operational boundaries even further.
Nairac as he portrayed Danny Mcerlaine
Based on what I have learned about Nairac at this time, I believe he was starting to come under pressure to deliver tangible results from his high-risk enterprises. It’s now 1977 and the security forces in Northern Ireland have tightened up their game. The shadowy intelligence gathering units are far more accountable and given clearer direction on their roles and what is expected of them. And more importantly, what is not expected of them.
Senior military officers rotated in and out of Northern Ireland and as time went on became more accountable for the men and the operations being carried out under their command. It takes little imagination to picture a General or even a Colonel being briefed on Nairac’s activities and demanding safeguards and limitations on how Nairac operated as well as quantifiable results from his efforts. This would have been unacceptable to Nairac, completely against how he saw himself and the value of the operations he conducted. To bolster this opinion is the fact that individuals who worked alongside Nairac at the time stated that he began trying very hard to recruit a Source within the republican movement in South Armagh. Again, I believe that Nairac went down this route as, while he could report sightings and movements of republican personalities, exploitable intelligence leading to the disruption of attacks and the arrest of active PIRA members was what was expected. And a Source within PIRA was the best option to provide this. It should be pointed out at this juncture that Source/Agent Handling was not part of 14 Int’s operational remit. Another military intelligence unit was responsible for that from the Army side, and the RUC’s Special Branch from the police side. MI5 was also running Agents and had oversight of all the intelligence that both military and police Sources produced. So Nairac really had no remit to be recruiting Sources other than under his own motivations. But, I believe he was feeling the pressure to justify his actions and knew that the recruitment of a well-placed, productive Source would achieve this.
It is also probably what got him killed.
On the night of the 14th May 1977, Nairac drove his red Triumph Toledo to a PIRA watering hole in Drumintee, South Armagh called The Three Steps.
There are varied theories as to why The Three Steps in particular but the one that holds the most weight for me is that he was there to meet a Contact; someone who he had either met or spoken to before and wanted to recruit as a Source. Harnden’s book mentions details from an unnamed security force member who recalled that Nairac had met with a man in Newry the day before and arranged to meet again at The Three Steps that same night but the man never showed. The next day, while Nairac was fly-fishing over the border in Ireland, the security force member stated that a man with a South Armagh accent called twice asking for ‘Bobby’. When Nairac returned from his illegal jaunt over the border later that day, he was called a third time and this is when he arranged to meet his Contact that evening at The Three Steps. The fact that Nairac had not been challenged on that previous occasion undoubtedly encouraged him to return. And to turn down the offer of SAS back up from the SAS Operations Officer whom Nairac had informed of his intended movements.
We know from official records that Nairac radioed in when he arrived at The Three Steps, left his vehicle and entered the bar around 10pm. A popular band was playing that night and consequently, what would normally have been a local crowd was swelled to around 200 by people who had travelled from neighbouring towns and villages. Including Nairac’s uniformed stomping ground of Crossmaglen. It is highly likely that someone in the crowd recognised the handsome mechanic from The Ardoyne as also being the charismatic soldier who patrolled Crossmaglen chatting to the residents and flirting with local girls. Witnesses to the events that evening also remember some unusual behaviour from Nairac. Standing at the bar he drew attention to himself, causing a bit of a commotion as he loudly proclaimed that someone had lifted a pack of cigarettes he had bought and asked other customers if they had seen his fags or taken them by mistake. It’s difficult to ascertain what Nairac was trying to achieve here but one possibility is that this was a prearranged signal to his Contact that all was clear and they could meet. Admittedly, it’s a very, very overt method of doing so but Nairac was not a trained Agent Handler and was probably winging it as he went along. Whatever his aim, it drew attention to him and was remembered long after the events of that evening.
At one point, the band announced that there was a request for Danny Mcerlaine from Belfast to give them a song. Nairac duly stepped up and performed renditions of a couple of popular republican songs. As before, his singing was well received but his cover story wasn’t. As a self-regarded authority on all things republican, Nairac should have known that an Official or ‘stickie’ IRA man such as Danny Mcerlaine would not be welcomed in a Provisional IRA bar. His extended cover story of mentioning the name of another ‘stickie’ from Crossmaglen to establish further bona fides would also have tripped him up as that individual had been officially warned by PIRA not to darken the doors of their drinking dens. Between his ill thought-out cover story and the locals’ recognition that he had been in uniform around Crossmaglen, it was only a matter of time before Nairac was challenged hard over his identity. And on one of his trips to the gents, he was accosted by two men and asked who he was and what he was doing in the pub. Nairac stuck to his cover story of being Danny Mcerlaine and that he was there to meet with the ‘stickie’ from Crossmaglen.
The men and their friends had been studying Danny Mcerlaine with intense scrutiny for some time that night. Word had reached the group of the jarring details concerning the singing mechanic from West Belfast and while some punters may have had questions for the Ardoyne man, this group had far more than questions in mind. It should be noted at this juncture that this group were not PIRA but men from local towns and villages. The leader of the group was a tough former boxer called Terry McCormick. McCormick had boxed in Belfast clubs and immediately identified that Danny Mcerlaine’s accent was suspect. He informed the group that he believed Mcerlaine was an SAS soldier operating undercover. What happened next is not clear but the general consensus based on witness testimonies is that McCormick told people in the bar that Nairac was an SAS man and that he was going to take him outside and give him a good beating. McCormick approached Nairac, said something to him then Nairac and McCormick left through the front door. A witness stated that the scene seemed to suggest that McCormick had asked Nairac to step outside for a fight, to which Nairac obliged.
When the Guards’ Captain walked out into the car park of The Three Steps, he was probably pretty confident that, as an Oxford Boxing Blue, he could take care of himself against some local yokels. Unfortunately, this was not to be a gentlemanly contest governed by boxing rules and regulations. The group had checked there was no military or RUC presence nearby and were waiting as Nairac exited the bar. McCormick was behind Nairac and pulled a large scarf over the soldier’s face and he and another man proceeded to beat Nairac with fists and feet. Nairac fought back as best as he could but when his pistol flew out from under his jacket, the weapon was grabbed by his assailants and pointed at his head. He was then bundled into a car between two thugs and sped away from the bar followed by a second car with others from the group.
The cars were across the border in under 10 minutes and pulled over, the injured Nairac hauled out in a field next to the River Flurry. The group split up at this point with two of the men driving into nearby Dundalk to locate a PIRA member to come and deal with Nairac in an official capacity. As civilians, this was not something that they could take upon themselves as there would be severe reprisals. The men who drove to Dundalk knew of a South Armagh PIRA member who was living there; Liam Townson, on the run from the security forces in the north. The pair located Townson who had been drinking all day but agreed to come and take care of the SAS man. On the way back to Nairac, Townson asked the pair to pull over so he could retrieve a revolver from a hide.
When they reached Nairac and the rest of the group, McCormick was beating and interrogating Nairac on the bridge. Townson assumed control and grabbed Nairac, hauling him through the field, firing questions at him and telling him he was going to die. Nairac, recognising this was his last chance, fought back hard and even managed to grab his Browning pistol from Townson. The assailants threw themselves to the ground but one of them grabbed a fence post and battered Nairac over the head with it. Questioned again on his identity, the almost unconscious Nairac stuck to his cover story. He was pistol whipped across the face and told by Townson that he was going to be killed. Nairac asked if he was going to die, as a man of the catholic faith, could he have a priest? Townson saw the soldier was in a bad way and whispered to McCormick to pretend that he was a priest and try to elicit a confession from Nairac as to his true identity. As bad a shape as he was in however, Nairac stuck to his cover story. Townson lifted Nairac’s pistol, pointed it at close range to Nairac’s head and pulled the trigger. Click. Surprised, he pulled it again. Click. Enraged he tried a third time, screaming at the kneeling Nairac ‘Fuck you, it’s only blanks.’ before pulling the trigger a fourth time and killing Nairac with that shot. And in a damp, boggy field near the River Flurry in County Louth, Captain Robert Nairac, Grenadier Guards and 14 Int, was murdered by a drunken PIRA member and a gang of republican thugs.
When Nairac hadn’t returned to the base at Bessbrook Mill by midnight, two SAS operators were sent to drive past the Three Steps and see if the intelligence officer was still there. They reached the car park of the bar around one o’clock in the morning and saw Nairac’s Toledo still parked up. One of the soldiers got out and approached the Toledo on foot, noting damage to the exterior of the vehicle and coins and cigarettes scattered on the ground near the door; clear signs of a struggle. But there was little more the men could do that night. The Toledo might have been rigged up with explosives. A PIRA ambush team might be laying in wait to take out any British soldiers coming to retrieve the car. For all the SAS men knew, it might just have been a fight over a woman and a drunken Nairac was cuddled up in bed somewhere with her. Later that morning however, an extensive air and ground search began under the premise that Nairac had been abducted.
PIRA released a statement later saying that they had arrested and interrogated Nairac and that, after he admitted being an undercover SAS soldier, he was executed as an enemy spy. But they never dumped his body or said where it was. This was unusual as, footage of the corpse of an ‘SAS man’ captured and killed by PIRA would have been worldwide news and a massive publicity coup for PIRA. But this didn’t happen and as the years went on, PIRA would still not release details of Nairac’s burial location. Some sources believe this was down to the severity of the injuries inflicted upon Nairac but PIRA routinely dumped the naked bodies of ‘interrogated’ informers complete with burns, gouges, slashes, and broken bones in public places so this doesn’t really seem to hold much weight. In my opinion, the most likely explanation is . . . they just don’t know where Nairac is buried.
When the group who abducted Nairac went looking for Liam Townson, Townson had been staying with a senior PIRA member called Liam Fagan and intelligence sources maintain that after Nairac’s killing, Fagan had been given responsibility for the burial of Nairac. At this point, Fagan probably told his superiors roughly where he had buried Nairac. Another piece of information that came to light in later years was that, some time after Nairac’s death, animals had disturbed the ground where he was buried. Apparently, a hasty exhumation and re-burial was conducted, again under Fagan’s oversight. Some time later, Fagan switched allegiance from PIRA to Republican Sinn Fein and a few years after that, he died. And the location of Robert Nairac’s final burial place went with him.
The 2024 search for Nairac’s remains
In August 2024 new searches were conducted near Dundalk as a former PIRA member volunteered information he claims was given to him years before by some of the men responsible for Nairac’s death and burial. Unfortunately nothing was found of the Grenadier Guards Captain. Perhaps too much time had passed, memories corrupted and faded, recollections uncertain. But Robert Nairac is still out there somewhere among the cold peat bogs and undulating moorland. Probably a stone’s throw across the border from the bandit country of South Armagh that consumed him to the point of fatality.
What of the individuals who carried out the kidnap and murder of Robert Nairac? While all of those involved were identified and several charged and imprisoned for varying lengths of incarceration, Liam Townson was convicted and jailed for the actual murder of Robert Nairac. But even Townson was unable to identify the location of the grave. Terry McCormick, the former boxer who had instigated the kidnap and beating of Nairac, fled to the USA where he struggled with mental health issues for the remainder of his life, consumed with the guilt over what he had done to Nairac.
It’s perhaps too easy with the spotlight of modern sensibilities and the benefit of hindsight to criticise Nairac and the manner in which he operated. That, back then at a time when intelligence gathering organisations were formalising their tactics and methodologies, much more latitude was given to individualistic practises. I agree that some latitude would have been permitted but at the end of the day and regardless of his position, a soldier still belonged to a unit that was ultimately responsible for him and his safety. Even from a colder, pragmatic angle, a 14 Int operator disappearing into the heartlands of South Armagh on solo missions represented a serious threat of compromise to the unit if he had been captured and interrogated properly by PIRA. The intelligence and information that could have been tortured out of him would have had a serious impact on 14 Int and the other agencies and organisations that it worked alongside. But the hard truth remains that Nairac did operate in a unilateral and maverick manner that at some point was going to come crashing down on him. On his later tours of duty, the SAS men he worked alongside warning both Nairac and his superiors, of this inevitability.
In February 1979, Robert Nairac was posthumously awarded the George Cross for his bravery during operations in Northern Ireland and his courage in surrendering nothing to his captors. The citation can be read here and even contains a quote from Townson regarding Nairac’s bravery on that fateful night in 1977. Over the following years and decades, rumours of Nairac’s associations with death squads and loyalist paramilitaries have abounded but on each occasion definitive evidence has proven that he was not involved. There were also rumours that Nairac’s body had been disposed through a mincing machine at an abattoir in Dundalk but this also, was untrue. What is true seems to be that with the death of those directly involved in the burial and the huge amount of time that has passed, it’s unlikely that, other than through an accidental find, we will ever locate Captain Nairac’s body.
So, a sad end to a sad tale albeit one that remains ongoing as efforts continue to locate the bodies of Nairac and the other Disappeared from the Northern Ireland conflict. And, as is usual in these cases, it is Nairac’s family, in this instance his sisters, who bear the pain and suffering of being unable to give their bright, brave brother the christian burial he rightly deserves.
Also the height of the Cold War. The global conflict between The West and The USSR for dominance of power. While mostly consigned to the annals of history, it is often forgotten just how near our nations came to escalating conventional conflict to a nuclear one. We came close. Very close. In fact, it is now generally accepted that a KGB officer who MI6 recruited, averted an almost certain nuclear war. Oleg Gordievsky reported to his British Case Officers that the USSR believed that the large scale NATO exercise Able Archer ‘83 was actually a nuclear protocol to initiate a first strike. And that the USSR was desperately trying to ready their own nuclear weapons to beat the West to the punch. But for Gordievsky’s timely reporting, the Mutually Assured Destruction previously thought to be the inhibitor for any nation deploying nuclear weapons, would have been the effect rather than the deterrent.
But that’s not the end of the threat from nuclear weapons during this period. Not by a long chalk and, until now, not very well known.
* * *
North Sea, off Arbroath, Scotland, Mid 1980s:
The ageing trawler rose and fell on the swells of the pewter sea, the bow sending plumes of white spume to each side as it cleaved the cold, grey water on its southbound heading. At the other end of the boat, dirty, acrid smoke belched into the air as the engine laboured to maintain forward progress. Cables, drums, floats and nets dominated the rear decks, the standard paraphernalia of many a fishing trawler prowling the sea for cod and other white fish. A crewman appears on deck, pulling his thin jacket tighter against him while he grimaces at the keen wind and tries to light a cigarette. After several attempts, he finally succeeds and takes a deep draw, savouring the nicotine hit with the hint of a smile. He takes in the land to his west; the Angus coastline. Beaches, cliffs, and patchwork green farmland. He knows that beyond this, and just out of sight to him at the moment, is 45 Commando Royal Marines. The most northern based unit of the Commandos. He knows this not because he is an Arbroath local, or indeed, any kind of local to the region. No, he knows this because he has been briefed and trained. Selected for this very special role. A role he has been carrying out for several years now.
He knows this because he is Spetsnaz.
A special forces soldier of the USSR.
This is the fifth time he has deployed on one of these covert operations to the UK. He and his team jokingly refer to the mission as ‘checking on the children’. They find it amusing as, ultimately, it accurately reflects the nature of their operation. Going back to check on something that has been left alone for some time. Flicking his cigarette stub into the wind, a noise attracts his attention and he nods as the other members of his team arrive on deck, the t-shirts and shorts telegraphing their intent: PT. Physical Training. He and his men pride themselves on maintaining peak physical condition and being stuck on a slow moving trawler for over a week was still no excuse for dropping standards. Removing his coat, he joins the team as they pair off for a punishing circuit of chin-ups, press-ups, squats, burpees, sit-ups and tuck-jumps until they are breathless, muscles exhausted and heavy with lactic acid. Circuit complete, the team smile and slap each other on the shoulder with affection before making their way back down to their quarters where they will wash, dress, and prepare for the afternoon brief from Moscow.
As the trawler maintains its steady course, in a small copse of trees near the shoreline to the south of Arbroath, a bearded man steps back from the enormous lens and camera supported by a tall tripod. He speaks to a second man casually leaning against the trunk of a Scots Pine.
‘Bloody PT. Can you believe it?’
The second man chuckles his reply. ‘I know. For a minute there I thought they were going to bust out some of that karate bullshit they love practicing.’
The first man grins and nods as he sets about dismantling the camera configuration. ‘Must be the only trawlermen in the world who smash out burpees and push-ups three times a day.’
The second man turns and takes a knee, picking up the handset of a large radio and speaking into it.
‘SUNRAY, this is DELTA TWO. WHAM! remain on SIERRA course. OVER.’
A burst of static precedes the response and the man nods, satisfied that his message was received, understood and that DELTA THREE will now resume tracking of the trawler and its team of Spetsnaz operatives on its southbound course. He and his DELTA TWO colleagues will collapse this Observation Post and leap-frog the other DELTAs currently positioned along the coast. His team’s final destination is an area of forest in the county of Suffolk, South East England. He shivers as the cold breeze strengthens and he is grateful that this wasn’t a maritime tasking. The thought of finning miles out to sea freezing his arse off was not a pleasant prospect but, as an experienced team leader in the SBS, the Special Boat Squadron, pretty much his bread and butter. Still, not this time. Land based surveillance and observation with a bit of Close Target Reconnaissance for the final objective. As he assists his team mate in stowing the camera gear back into the nylon bags, a smile crosses his face as he wonders what the pop band Wham! would think if they knew their name had been assigned to a team of Russian special forces. The name was chosen because one of the Russian operatives had blonde streaks in his hair and bore a passing resemblance to the group’s lead singer. The Team Leader was pretty certain that the real WHAM! wouldn’t be particularly impressed . . .
Thetford Forest, Suffolk, England, one week later:
They appear first on the thermal imager. The heat signature of their bodies glowing a brighter white than the surroundings. They move slowly, pausing often and monitoring the ground before them, looking for any sign of human presence. From the shapes of their profiles on the monitor, the DELTA TWO Team Leader notes that the Spetsnaz are carrying assault rifles and wearing Night Vision Goggles. He’d anticipated as much and is confident that he and his team will remain undetected for the duration of the operation. This, after all, is their role. Observe, monitor, and record. Then later, once the Soviet guests had departed, Access; the most sensitive aspect of the operation. But that would be greatly assisted by the footage from the dozen or so infrared cameras covering the objective.
The Team Leader’s attention is brought back to the task at hand as two of the Spetsnaz operatives patrol between the trees before pausing their advance and waiting several minutes in silence. After some time, one of them retrieves a device from his pack and moves it in small circles above the ground. Whatever the device is, it eventually emits a tiny light, barely visible in the dark of the forest, and the man stops, takes a knee and scrapes at the surface of the forest floor. The SBS Team Leader watches as the Spetsnaz operative reaches back into his pack and retrieves a folding shovel which he extends and uses to excavate deeper into the soil. His companion joins him and both men continue their slow, methodical digging for almost fifteen minutes. The mounds of soil obscure the view of what the men are looking for but the Team Leader isn’t concerned. He already knows what it is.
A hatch.
A circular, sealed entrance to a pre-fabricated underground bunker. A bunker stocked with enough food, water, gas, camping stoves, mats, sleeping bags, medical kits, chemical toilet, weapons and ammunition to sustain a team of four men. He knows because the Spooks told him. The information from an MI6 Asset in Russia on pre-positioned Spetsnaz redoubts located around the UK. Ready and waiting for the day the USSR’s finest troops would return to them to wreak havoc in advance of a Soviet offensive. Or even just as guerrilla warfare, causing chaos and mayhem in an attempt to destabilise the rule of government and law. While the Team Leader and his SBS colleagues had been briefed that there were other such bunkers up and down the length of the country, this one was of particular interest due to its proximity to the RAF bases at Lakenheath and Mildenhall. These key strategic locations were undoubtedly earmarked as priority targets by the Soviets in order to strike at the joint US and UK capability housed there.
It takes the Spetsnaz operatives over an hour to complete their business with the bunker. DELTA TWO’s Team Leader notes the careful manner in which the Soviet special forces soldiers cover and conceal the entrance to the bunker and carefully erase any trace of ground disturbance they have created. As they came, so they withdraw; slow, measured steps, weapons ready and scanning the area around them as they melt back into the dense foliage around them and eventually disappear from the monitor. It is five minutes before the call comes through his earpiece from his watcher at the roadside.
“WHAM! mobile and area clear, I say again, area clear.”
The Team Leader acknowledges and crawls backwards from his cover position until he can stand, brushing the loose forest debris from his camouflage jacket and trousers. He fires off a flurry of commands over the radio and within seconds, the rest of his team emerge from the undergrowth. The headlights of a vehicle flicker between the trees and he makes his way towards it, aware that it will stop at the clearing on the edge of the forest. On reaching the clearing, he sees a group of individuals engaged in all manner of activity around a large Transit van. Some are donning ‘noddy’ suits; personal protective clothing to shield them from nasty stuff like chemicals or biological agents. But the suits also protect against another lethal element: Radiation. More specifically, nuclear radiation. And that’s exactly why the two boffins from Aldermaston and whatever other secret organisations they worked for were getting suited up alongside two of the SBS operators. The special forces soldiers would gain entry into the underground bunker, taking care to neutralise the concealed ‘tells’ that the Spetsnaz had placed in various locations in the vicinity of the hatch and entranceway. Once clear, the boffins would follow and make their way to the reason they had been brought to a secret bunker in a Suffolk forest:
The nuclear bombs.
Or, to be more accurate, the nuclear suitcase bombs. Portable nuclear devices designed for mobility and quick emplacement. The Team Leader shakes his head at the thought of the damage these devices could unleash upon innocent civilians. The blast alone, bad enough, but the radiation poisoning and sickness that followed . . . his skin itches at the mere thought of this scenario. His earpiece cackles to life with the update that his men have gained access and that the entranceway is clear. The Team Leader acknowledges and walks to the rear of the van where the rest of his team watch the live camera feed from the pair of operators in the bunker. The monitor shows neat, stacked shelving units, tinned food, bottled water, rolled up sleeping bags. Collapsed cot beds in one corner and in the other, two large, hard plastic cases.
The nukes.
A second monitor kicks into life and a new camera feed shows a close up of the cases. An individual enters the scene and leans in to study the cases closely, his head a misshapen cone in the protective suit. The Team Leader nods as his CME man, Covert Method of Entry man, studies the locks on the cases. After several moments the man’s gloved hands begin moving the dials of the combination locks slowly and with pressure. This takes time as he identifies each number by the almost imperceptible click he feels when the correct digit reaches the latch. Within fifteen minutes, he has the cases unlocked and steps back to allow the boffins access to the cases and the lethal contents.
The Team Leader has never seen inside a nuclear suitcase bomb before and is fascinated as he watches the feed from the boffin’s chest-mounted camera. One element of the device reminds him of the pipe-bombs he’d seen in Northern Ireland, albeit larger and engineered to a far higher standard. Other components were less familiar but compatible with power, wiring, timing, and trigger mechanisms. Bombs were bombs at the end of the day and, nuclear or not, they all required roughly the same components to work together. He knows the plan is to remove the devices and make them safe in a protective, sanitised environment back in Aldermaston or some other specialist establishment. The SBS had been told by the spooks that, unless things changed drastically, the Spetsnaz were not expected to return to the site for another six months to ‘check on the children.’ If the Team Leader had his way, the Spetsnaz wouldn’t have left the forest alive after securing the bunker. But the spooks were adamant that the Russians had to be allowed to carry on as normal. Source protection and all that. Having been around the Security and Intelligence agencies for some years now, the Team Leader was no stranger to having to allow something to happen in order for the spooks to ensure the Source or Asset who provided the information was not compromised. And while he didn’t like it, the Team Leader had to accept it as an inevitable part of working with the spies.
Movement at the entrance to the bunker grabs his attention and he watches his CME man staggering into the open with one of the cases in his arms. The Team Leader will later find out that this bomb is the lighter of the two, around 30kg. The second case is manoeuvred up the stairs of the bunker and carried between the second SBS operator and one of the boffins. The team will later learn that this one was closer to 60kg in weight. While the cases are carefully secured in the rear of the Transit for the onward journey, the Team Leader and his men set about returning the bunker and its entrance back to its original state, careful to replace the Spetsnaz ‘tells’ back in place. Giving the now concealed bunker a final visual inspection, the Team Leader nods with satisfaction that there is nothing to indicate he and his guys had ever been here. As the SBS operators make their way to the second Transit van for their extraction, the Team Leader thinks of two things. First, how many more of these devices are secreted in similar bunkers around the UK, and second, when the Spetsnaz return, will he and his guys finally be given the authorisation to kill them?
* * *
Sounds like a work of fiction, doesn’t it? The scary thing is, it’s not. Spetsnaz operatives from the USSR did hide nuclear suitcase bombs in strategic locations in the UK, including the one in Thetford Forest that I’ve highlighted here. I’ve obviously applied some artistic license in creating characters and actions around the situation but, as I say, these bunkers and the nuclear suitcase bombs were cached in the UK by special forces of the USSR.
I first heard of these activities in a 1999 article from a publication called Inside the Pentagon. This article covered Spetsnaz caches being uncovered in Belgium, Switzerland, and other European countries. Not only that, but there was also mention of such caches on US soil, the east coast more specifically. The assessment at the time was that these caches in the USA may even have been abandoned and forgotten about after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And to this day, no concerted effort has been employed to locate them. A formal request was issued to the Secretary of State under the Clinton administration, Madeleine Albright, however there was still no action taken. Former Soviet Defence officers testified in 1997 that there were dozens of these ‘suitcase bomb’ devices unaccounted for after the collapse of the Soviet Union and it was almost certain that caches remained in the USA, having been smuggled in through the borders of Canada and Mexico.
The reason the subject of nuclear bombs cached in the UK returned to pique my interest was the release of a new book by former Special Boat Squadron operator Duncan Falconer. When I was younger I thoroughly enjoyed Duncan’s book ‘First into action’, an account of his life in the SBS and would recommend it to anyone interested in the subject matter. Duncan has just released a follow up to this book, the newest iteration detailing his life after the SBS as a security contractor, bodyguard, Hollywood screenwriter and movie producer etc. It’s called ‘First into action again’ and in one of the PR releases for it, Duncan mentions being part of a team involved in the surveillance of Spetsnaz soldiers operating in the UK and . . . locating the nuclear suitcase bombs that the Soviet soldiers had planted. Duncan is obviously limited in what he can disclose about the situation but is quite clear in his account that it did happen and it happened in Suffolk.
So, another example of something that sounds like it could have been ripped out of a Tom Clancy novel actually being a real situation. What is even more surprising is how few people have heard about portable nuclear bombs being hidden in the UK as part of a Russian plan of sabotage and pre-invasion aggression. And another thing to consider which I haven’t mentioned here: these Spetsnaz teams weren’t operating alone. They had support and assistance from people in the respective areas. Placing a pre-fabricated bunker into a forest in Suffolk required more than folding shovels and a bit of elbow grease. A lot more . . .
And there you have it; Spetsnaz in Suffolk – who knew?