Are we as close as we’ve ever been to a new world war?
A world preparing for war.
That’s literally all I see going on right now.
The Baltic states and Northern Europe firmly believe physical Russian incursions to occur at any time now after sightings of ‘little green men’ on the border of Estonia this week. This is a serious revision on the previous estimates of this happening in 2029. The ‘little green men’ refers to armed soldiers without insignia or identifying badges, famously deployed prior to the physical invasions of Ukraine. The Russian drones over European countries, the cyber-attacks against government IT infrastructure, the sabotage and assassinations, the massive increase in Russian intelligence officers operating in European countries have all been going on for some time but the presence of the anonymous armed troops has analysts predicting physical conflict sooner rather than later. To that end, war preparations are in full swing with every element from weapon production and procurement to mobilisation of Reserve Forces currently increasing at pace. An interesting thing I noted yesterday was a repeated statement from both Russian government representatives and the Russian media that the United Kingdom was behind the bombing of Russian airfields by Ukraine. This was a very clear statement, no ambiguity, and seemed to me to have more weight to it than I think was given at the time. I believe that this is Russia framing the narrative – sowing the seeds for justification for future reprisals against UK interests. A very common and oft-used page of the Russian playbook for hostile international interventions.
Despite the theatrics of the much-lauded Gaza peace deal brokered by the USA, Hamas refuses to disarm and Israel stands firm in its position to defeat the terrorist organisation totally. The ceasefire wasn’t event 48 hours old and already had over 30 violations from each side. Hamas immediately executed individuals they deemed as being rivals for power in the region and President Trump posted on social media that if Hamas didn’t stop killing people, America would start killing Hamas. Which seems a little hyperbolic given that both Israel’s intelligence apparatus and kinetic capabilities in this area are second to none. Far, far better than anything the US could offer up. But still, it’s the thought that counts, I suppose.
In the past week, Pakistan has been bombing targets in Afghanistan, including an airstrike in the capital Kabul. Their new alignment with the US has emboldened Pakistan to carry out such actions without worrying about condemnation or consequence. The fact that the US has also made it clear that they want Bagram airfield in Afghanistan ‘back’, perhaps explains why Pakistan has had complete freedom to carry out these bombings. No doubt some kind of accord or agreement has been reached in securing Pakistan’s assistance in the ‘recovery’ of Bagram.
As a result of this alignment, and having been stiffed by Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, India has pivoted completely and aligned itself with Russia and China in a snub to its former ally and trading partner. India’s hand, in many ways, was forced here. Its constant conflict with Pakistan almost reached full-on war earlier this year and would take little for it to escalate once again so with Pakistan now aligned with the USA, India needed to secure powerful allies to hedge against any future Pakistan aggression.
Russia has begun supplying North Korea with sophisticated weaponry including intercontinental ballistic missiles and tactical submarine technology, greatly enhancing the pariah nation’s military capability. In return, Russia is receiving tens of thousands of North Korean troops to feed into the meat grinder of Ukraine, possibly anticipating freeing up some troops from the region to be redeployed to northern Europe. South Korea is naturally alarmed at this rapid capacity building by its hostile neighbour to the north, particularly as the US, historically the main security blanket for South Korea, seems to be disengaging from much of the protections it previously provided.
The president of the USA has been ordering unilateral strikes against boats off the coast of Venezuela, claiming without any evidence or even credible intelligence that they are part of the drugs invasion of the USA. Yesterday, a boat that was struck by a missile from a US drone was reported to have been Colombian and not Venezuelan, and that, for the first time there were survivors. Also yesterday, after a leak to the Washington Post, the American president admitted that he had authorised the CIA to conduct operations in Venezuela and that they have been ‘boots on the ground’ for some time now. Nearly 10,000 American troops in one guise or another are forward positioned in Puerto Rico and other areas of the Caribbean. American B-52 bombers were spotted in the skies above Caracas, the capital yesterday. A US special operations ‘mother ship’ has been in the area for close to a month now. One doesn’t need to be Nostradamus to predict American troops entering Venezuela at some point in the near future unless the Maduro regime rolls over beforehand or buys their way out of the problem.
Ukraine has been putting Russia under severe pressure by targeting Russian energy production facilities. A smart move that has destroyed around 25 – 30% of Russian petrochemical production and refining. Severe fuel shortages causing queues kilometres long are very public spectacles that show the Russian population that the narrative they are being fed from the Kremlin regarding the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine is perhaps not as rosy as their leaders are making it out to be. According to informed sources, the success of this initiative has surprised many in The White House and the assessment made that, actually, Ukraine can win this war. The tone of the American interactions with Ukraine changed almost immediately with President Trump even mooting about supplying (selling) Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Cue Vladimir Putin calling President Trump and congratulating him on the peace deal in the middle east that only Trump could have achieved. An amazing achievement that has ended thousands of years of brutal killings and suffering. That only Trump had the ability to carry this off . . . This flattery, of course worked and there was a 2-hour phone call between Trump and Putin after which the bromance seems to be back on. The pair have arranged to meet face to face at a later date in Hungary, one of the few countries Putin feels comfortable entering without risk of the ICC arrest warrant being implemented against him. It will be interesting to see what today’s meeting between Trump and President Zelensky brings out with Zelensky anticipating Tomahawks but maybe having to settle for another forced ‘ceasefire’ period while Putin deploys his next initiative.
In another, completely out of the blue geopolitical development, after Israel bombed Hamas targets in Qatar, Donald Trump publicly stated that he had signed an agreement with Qatar that, should anyone attack Qatar, then the USA would fight on Qatar’s behalf. This strange commitment led to much head scratching among analysts as to why such a public declaration, particularly from a man who campaigned on a platform of ‘no foreign wars’. The White House also stated it has approved the establishment of a Qatari Emiri Air Force facility in Idaho, a move that has enraged much of the Republican party’s support base and left the rest of the US puzzled as to why. Of course, the cynic might note the ‘gift’ of the $400 million jet to the president of the USA some months before or the murky, billions of dollars in financial deals between Qatar and extended members of the Trump family and friends circle as perhaps the agreed ‘something’ in the something for something arrangement. As a result of this, in yet another knee-jerk reaction, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed an accord whereby one will defend the other against any attack. A ‘lite’, middle eastern NATO Article 5 if you will. Considering the antipathy between Saudi Arabia and Qatar over the years, maybe someone should have seen the Saudi pivot coming as an inevitable self-protection measure.
And there you have it. A world preparing for war. Now, as I’ve been telling anybody interested in the matter, the world has already been at war for decades really. It’s just that because there’s been no traditional peer to peer fighting in western European countries or the USA, much of it goes unnoticed by citizens going about their daily lives. But wars by proxy have been and are being fought, the difference now being that the ‘by proxy’ part is being dropped, the charade of plausible deniability by a nation or state now seen as unimportant or superfluous.
Which is concerning. When countries and nations no longer care to have an ‘off ramp’ in the manner of plausible deniability, they can soon be boxed into a corner and trapped in an escalating spiral of response reprisals and retributions.
What’s interesting to me is that some months ago a friend asked me if we were heading into World War 3. It was around the time of the Israel/US threats against Iran, before the actual airstrikes themselves. At the time I said no; Iran would bluster and rattle their sabres but there would be no real retaliation. On that front I was correct. Unfortunately, between then and now a new world order is emerging based not upon the standard trade agreements but of war and preparation for war. And it’s emerging fast. Really fast.But don’t take my word for it. I know watching international news and current affairs these days can feel like nothing more than doomscrolling. But take a little time to pay a bit more attention to some of the reports and articles mentioning the events I’ve highlighted above. I think you’ll be surprised at just how much is going on and what the knock-on effects are or are likely to be.